He doesn't, and neither do I.
Regardless of what you may think of sportswriters -- or the media, in general -- I can assure you the privilege of voting for the Hall of Fame isn't something any of us take lightly. That's why requirements for Hall voters begin with 10 seasons of covering Major League Baseball. I know several voters personally, and most of them spend weeks weighing the qualifications of Hall of Fame candidates before casting their vote. I don't know anybody who is casual about this process.
Personally, I believe in innocence until proven guilty. But the Hall of Fame rewards character as much as on-field performance. The behavior of McGwire and Sosa at the Congressional hearing and Bonds' ongoing behavior would cost them my Hall vote, at least on the first ballot. It's my personal protest of baseball's Steroid Era. After that, I'd have to make a decision.
McGwire hit 49 home runs as a rookie in 1987, and he did average 33 home runs per season over the next five years. He was injured for most of 1993 and '94, and after bouncing back with 39 homers and 90 RBIs in 1995, his career really took flight in 1996. Beginning that year, he hit 52, 58, 70 and 65 home runs and had 113, 123, 147 and 147 RBIs. After that, his body broke down, and maybe now, we know why. If you don't think McGwire was a Hall of Famer before 1996, are four seasons of Ruthian production (regardless of the cause of such production) enough to vote for him? I'm not so sure.
Believe it or not, Sosa had more prolonged success than Big Mac. During his peak four years (1998-2001), Sosa had 66, 63, 50 and 64 homers and 158, 141, 138 and 160 RBIs. But from 1995-97, he averaged 37 homers and 113 RBIs, and from 2002-03, he averaged 44/105. Overall, that's nine years with an average of 49/127. Still, even if you somehow dismiss the steroids rumors, Sosa was still caught corking his bat. Should a cheater be allowed in the Hall of Fame?
Based strictly on performance, Bonds has the best Hall of Fame case, steroids or not. If it's true that he didn't start using steroids until 1998, Bonds had Hall-worthy credentials long before that. But induction in Cooperstown requires a review of his entire career, so what do we make of his post-1998 performance?
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One word on Barry Zito, and the 7-year, $136 million contract he signed with the Giants this week.
Wow.
After seeing mediocre pitchers like Ted Lilly, Gil Meche and Jeff Suppan receive contracts worth $10-11 million a year, I thought Zito may get at least $18 million annually. But seven years is a lot (too much, actually) to give a pitcher, even one as durable as Zito.
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Happy New Year, everyone.