Wednesday, July 08, 2009

July 8 -- TAKING A HALLADAY?

BY SCOTT LAUBER

So, if I'm Ruben Amaro Jr., and I read the comments made yesterday by Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, I immediately do a few things:

1. Put Ricciardi on speed dial.
2. Keep calling until I work out a deal for Roy Halladay.

Halladay is, quite simply, the best pitcher in the American League. No offense to Josh Beckett or CC Sabathia or Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander or anybody else, but none of them are Halladay, who will take a 10-2 record, a 2.79 ERA, 98 strikeouts in 116 innings and three complete games to the mound tomorrow night at Tampa Bay. And it isn't just this season, either. Since 2002, Halladay has a 3.16 ERA and 40 -- 40! -- complete games. In five of the last seven seasons, he has pitched at least 220 innings. He won the Cy Young Award in 2003 and finished in the top five in 2006 (3rd), 2007 (5th) and 2008 (2nd). He's only 32, and he's never had significant arm trouble (though he did spend time on the disabled list last month with a groin injury). And, although the Jays play in the AL East and face the Red Sox and Yankees almost 20 times per season, he's 123-51 since 2002.

Charlie Manuel says he wants a horse. Halladay is the Secretariat of pitchers.

So, when Ricciardi said yesterday that he's "willing to listen" to offers for Halladay, it suddenly spiced up a previously bland trade market. Of course, the Jays won't give away Halladay, and if they're wise, they'll shed the necessary portion of their $81 million payroll by moving the long-term contracts of Vernon Wells and/or Alex Rios rather than their ace pitcher. But if Ricciardi is willing to listen, Amaro must be willing to bend his ear, and all indications are that he will. (Bet on the Phillies having at least one scout at each of Halladay's starts between tomorrow night and July 31.) Here, though, are a few things to consider:

a) Halladay has about $23 million remaining on his contract (approximately $7 million more this season and $15.75 million next year) before becoming a free agent. The Phillies' payroll has reached a franchise-record $132 million, and they already have about $95.5 million committed to only 11 players for 2010. How much higher can their payroll go?

b) Halladay has a full no-trade clause. Would he waive it to come to the typically weaker National League? Absolutely. Would he waive it to come to Citizens Bank Park? Hmmm.

c) The Jays most likely would want a package that includes a top prospect (think right-hander Kyle Drabek), a few mid-level prospects (think slugging outfielder Michael Taylor or catcher Lou Marson), and perhaps even a player on the major-league roster (think J.A. Happ or Antonio Bastardo). They're also looking for a shortstop, and the Phils may be able to sell them on Jason Donald, who has played two rehab games in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League after having minor knee surgery last month. It's believed the Phillies regard Drabek, touted outfielder Dominic Brown and Class A right-hander Jason Knapp as "untouchables," but might they change their mind if Halladay is on the table? Should they?

One thing seems certain: If the Phillies trade for Halladay, it would have to be one of those five-for-one, Von Hayes-style swaps, and the cost will be steep. For Halladay, though, it may be worth it. Just think about a rotation that features the righty-lefty punch of Halladay and Cole Hamels, with Joe Blanton, Happ and Jamie Moyer picking up the rear. And if Drabek (pictured) is the bait, well, the Phillies would still have Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Vance Worley, Michael Stutes, Yohan Flande and other promising arms in the farm system.

So, how much would you give up for Halladay?

***
Seattle lefty Erik Bedard made his return to the mound last night with mixed reviews. Limited to 72 pitches in his first start back from a shoulder problem, he allowed two runs on two hits, walked one and struck out eight, but lasted only four innings. If the Mariners join the ranks of the sellers, both Bedard (5-2, 2.58) and Jarrod Washburn (5-6, 3.08) will draw the Phillies' interest.

***
In the seventh inning last night, Manuel made the eyebrows-raising decision to pinch-hit .147-hitting Eric Bruntlett. Manuel later explained that, with runners on the corners in a tie game, the Phillies needed only a hit, not a home run, and he felt Bruntlett had a better chance of making contact than Chris Coste or John Mayberry Jr.


I disagree. But, really, the fact that we're debating the various merits of Bruntlett, Coste and Mayberry just hammers home the point that the Phillies sorely need another right-handed bat off the bench, doesn't it?

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't think Toronto gives up a pitcher like Halladay without receiving at least one player who is Major League ready, which means they'd probably insist on Happ along with a package of minor leaguers. That would still leave the Phillies with a problem in the fifth starter slot.

Lauber is an idiot said...

"the cost will be prohibitive. For Halladay, though, it may be worth it"

so, genius, which is it? prohibitive? or worth it? cant have it both ways

Eric Chase said...

Scott - I highly doubt there'd be any interest in Marson, as the Jays have 2007 first round pick JP Arencibia.

Do you feel that if he's acquired the Phils would be able to ink Halladay to a long term deal. There's a major assumption of risk that Halladay could bolt after next year.

That makes me think it might be prudent to offer whatever you would for Halladay, to Arizona for Haren, who's a Cy Young contender as well, with postseason experience, and he'd be locked up through 2012 for a reasonable price.

Thanks!

Scott Lauber said...

Anonymous: I absolutely agree. If I'm the Jays -- who aren't light-years away from contending, even in the AL East -- I'd insist on a major-league-ready player. In the Phillies case, I'd insist on Happ.

Lauber is an idiot said (thanks by the way): I lean toward "worth it" because, as I wrote, Halladay is the best pitcher in the AL. That said, the Jays will be asking a lot in return. That's my point. Thanks for the note, buddy.

Eric Chase: There's a possibility Halladay wouldn't waive his no-trade unless he got a guarantee that the team he was going to was going to lock him up to a multi-year deal. Keep in mind, the Phillies' philosophy tends to be nothing more than a three-year deal for a pitcher. They might alter that stance for Halladay, though.

GoPhilsGo said...

Scott ... I enjoy your work & don't think you're an idiot, but the hater has a legit point on your use of "prohibitive."

Eric Chase ... I agree that Haren is good & cheap & young & locked up for several years. Given those factors, what incentive do the D-backs have to trade him?

Anonymous said...

The pre-Gillick/Amaro Phillies would never even have talked about it this long.

I've got to believe Amaro knows that if Halladay can be had, you go get him.

This division is wide open, and I'd say the NL is winnable with a Halladay/Hamels combo at the top of your rotation.

Phils should be playing for NOW. Never know if rookies will develop. Halladay is a known quantity.

Ruben - please - make this happen.

Anonymous said...

Why do you post this drivel. Halliday has as much chance of landing in Philly as does Joe Biden keeping his foot out of his mouth for a minute. This is a CHEAP franchise period.

heather said...

Cheap?? They're payroll is $130 mil, one of the tops in baseball.