Sept. 30 -- THE TEAM TO BEAT

One of my closest friends is a New York-based baseball photographer. She's always telling me that one picture is worth 1,000 words, and on days like today, she's right. So, here's what it looked like inside the Phillies' clubhouse. (At some point, I think I'll get the beer smell out of my shirt).

Discuss.

Sept. 30 -- CELEBRATION TIME?

“We’re the team that’s been there before.

We know how it’s turned out, and we don’t want that again.”

-Phillies closer Brett Myers

So, here we are, and it's precisely where we knew we would be, isn't it? Last day of the regular season, and absolutely nothing has been decided. By the end of the day, the Phillies could be:

a) NL East champions
b) Scheduling tee times for October
c) Tied with the Mets and bracing for an NL East tie-breaker tomorrow at the Bank
d) Tied with the Mets for the NL East and with the Mets, Padres and/or Rockies for the wild card

Incredible.

As I wrote in the game story today, the Phillies' clubhouse is prepared for the best. Rolls of plastic are positioned above the lockers, ready to be unfurled for a champagne celebration. Heck, I even brought a change of clothes to the ballpark today, just in case I have to cover such festivities.

A lot of what happens is going to be up to Jamie Moyer, the 44-year-old veteran lefty. Lately, if there's one thing we know about Moyer, it's that we don't know much. Moyer has been equal parts very good and very bad. The Phillies are hoping he's very good today. Certainly, they need him to be better than Adam Eaton, who needed to be bailed out by Kyle Lohse. Today's notebook features all three of them. Moyer talks about the pressure (or lack thereof) of pitching a do-or-die game; Eaton talks about his surprise over being pulled in the third inning; Lohse talks about coming into the game to pitch the middle innings after starting only three days earlier against the Braves.

*
In one of yesterday's posts, I mentioned the Friday night comments by David Wright, who wondered how the Phillies would react to being the "hunted" instead of the "hunter." As Martin Frank writes, they didn't react well.

*
My Sunday baseball notes feature my picks for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year.

*
Pitching matchups for today's big games:

Marlins LHP Dontrelle Willis (10-15, 5.20) vs. Mets LHP Tom Glavine (12-7, 4.14), 1:10

Nationals RHP Jason Bergmann (6-5, 4.33) vs. Phillies LHP Jamie Moyer (13-12, 5.15), 1:35

Padres RHP Brett Tomko (4-11, 5.39) vs. Brewers RHP Jeff Suppan (11-12, 4.57), 2:05

D-Backs LHP Doug Davis (13-12, 4.25) vs. Rockies RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 4.52), 3:05

Finally, enjoy the games today. I'll try to post a few updates as the day moves along.

Sept. 29 -- NO CLINCHING, JUST CLENCHING

Well, the Mets held up their end of the bargain today, crushing the Marlins 13-0 in a brawl-filled game at Shea. (John Maine pitched great, if you didn't see it). So, there won't be any champagne flowing in the Phillies' clubhouse tonight.

In fact, the pressure is now squarely on the Phillies to win today, and thanks to another first-inning run allowed by Adam Eaton, they're trailing 1-0.

One quick aside before I get back to the game: Was driving home last night, listening to WFAN, when I heard the only quote from a Mets player or coach that has made sense to me over the past two weeks. I'm paraphrasing here, but David Wright remarked that the Phillies are in first place now, which means they'll have to cope with being chased. That's a new position for the Phillies, who are so familiar with doing the chasing.

How will they handle being the prey rather than the predator?

Sept. 29 -- ALONE AT THE TOP

So, Jimmy Rollins was sitting in the middle of the clubhouse last night, reflecting on the 6-0 victory that gave the Phillies sole possession of first place, when somebody asked him how it feels to finally be "the team to beat" in the NL East.

"Like spring training," he said with a smile.

You know that smile. It's the smile Rollins flashed in January, during an offseason press tour in which he declared the Phillies, not the defending NL East champion Mets, would be "the team to beat." And it was the smile he flashed again in February, when he reported for spring training and strengthened his position. Rollins never retracted that remark, even when the Phillies opened 4-11, even two weeks ago when they trailed the Mets by seven games with 17 to play. Thing is, he believed it all along. Rollins believed the Phillies were more talented than the Mets, better equipped to win the NL East. And, with any combination of Phillies wins and Mets losses totalling two, the Phillies will clinch their first division title since 1993.

The champagne is chilling. Can you taste it?

The improbable September in the NL East continues today, with the Mets taking the field in about an hour and the Phillies following at 3:55. It could be a memorable day at the Bank.

*
Cole Hamels pitched like the ace he is last night. Incredibly, he threw 116 pitches and lasted eight innings only three starts after missing a month with an elbow strain. More incredibly, he did it all without his trademark change-up. Hamels used mostly his fastball and curveball to stymie the Nats. Next up: Game 1 of the NLDS next Wednesday -- or are we getting ahead of ourselves?

*
After three straight stellar starts by Kyle Lohse, Kyle Kendrick and Hamels, it's up to Adam Eaton today. Does anyone have any faith that he'll turn in his first quality start since July 3?

*
The Phillies could clinch the NL East today. Pinch yourself, Martin Frank writes.

Time to check out what's happening in the clubhouse. More later.

Sept. 28 -- FIRST-PLACE PHILLIES

Good day, Phillies fans. And, if you root for the Phillies, it really is a good day. For the first time since April 6, 2005, your team is in first place.

Pretty amazing, isn't it? I was thinking last night about the train ride I took to New York on Sept. 13. I was writing a story for the next day's paper about the upcoming Phillies-Mets series at Shea Stadium, and I pulled these two quotes from my notebook:

Chris Coste: "It's not like we’re giving up on the division. It's facts. We unfortunately put ourselves in this hole to where the wild card seems like the way we have to do it."

Pat Burrell: "Realistically, when we had the [2-4] road trip [last week] and lost those tough games, not that you mean to do this, but we had to shift our attention away from the Mets. If [winning the division] happens, it happens. But seven games, at this point, is tough, so we had to regroup and think about the wild card."

Well, 11 wins -- and 10 Mets losses -- in 14 games have changed all that. The Phillies and Mets are tied for first, and after six weeks of spring training and 159 games over the past six months, the whole season boils down to one weekend. And some of the Mets don't have a very good feeling. "When I first got here, I was really excited," Pedro Martinez said. "Right now, I'm a little worried about how things have developed."

Buckle up. It should be fun.

*
Liked a lot of what I saw in the clubhouse last night. Yes, Shane Victorino and Brett Myers goofed around by mashing pies in the faces of Comcast SportsNet's Michael Barkann and Mitch Williams. But, for the most part, players I spoke to made a point of talking about how they haven't clinched anything. "It’s a feeling of knowing it's in our hands, but we haven't done anything yet," Ryan Howard said. "This is where it all begins. It's like the start of the season all over again. It's just that there's three games left."

Even Victorino said, "It’s weird to say we're tied, but it still feels like we’re chasing. After all this time, I never thought this is what would happen. But there's still three games left. Anything can happen."

*
Remember this back page from the New York Daily News after Jimmy Rollins' team-to-beat remark? Not so silly now, is it? Still, Willie Randolph says he feels confident, though I have no earthly idea why.

*
Lately, everything the Phillies do turns to gold. Victorino had an MRI on his still-aching calf yesterday. He was cleared to play, so Charlie Manuel put him in the lineup in place of slumping Jayson Werth. Lo and behold, in the first inning, Victorino dropped a bunt, blazed down the first-base line like Carl Lewis and forced John Smoltz into making a bad throw that allowed Rollins to score.

*
Manuel is biased, but he said yesterday that Rollins is having the best season defensively of any shortstop he's managed. That includes 11-time Gold Glover Omar Vizquel. Also, there were some records set last night. One good one by Rollins, one not-so-good by Howard, who redeemed himself with a huge first-inning homer.

In his final regular-season start tonight, ace lefty Cole Hamels has to make like Kyle Lohse and Kyle Kendrick. Speaking of which, who ever thought Lohse and Kendrick would outpitch Tim Hudson and Smoltz? Insanity.

Sept. 27 -- FIT TO BE TIED

So, several of you have e-mailed to ask about the Phillies' tie-breaker scenarios. What happens if there's a three-way tie? Or, heaven help us, a five-way tie?

I'll try to explain, as simply and succinctly as possible. Ready? Here goes.

Any two-team tie-breakers would be played Monday. If the Phils finish with the same record as the Mets or D-Backs, the game would be at the Bank. If they finish with the same record as the Padres or Rockies, the game would be on the road.

Here's where it gets complicated:

--If the Phillies finish with the same record as the Mets and one NL West team, the Phils and Mets would play Monday at the Bank to determine the NL East winner. The loser would play Tuesday. Phils-Padres would be in San Diego. Phils-Rockies would be in Colorado. Phils-DBacks would be in Arizona.

--If the Phillies, Padres and Rockies wind up in a three-way tie, the Rockies have the option of playing one game on the road or two at-home. If they choose one game, the Phils would host the Padres on Monday, and the winner would host the Rockies on Tuesday.

--If there's a four-way tie involving the Mets, Phillies, Padres and Rockies with the D-Backs winning the West: the Phillies would host a tie-breaker with the Mets on Monday to settle the NL East. Then, the Rockies' choice comes into play. If they choose one road game, the Phillies and/or Mets would face the Padres, with the winner hosting the Rockies.

--If there's a dreaded five-way tie involving the Mets, Phillies, Padres, Rockies and D-Backs: the Phillies would host an NL East tie-breaker with the Mets on Monday. The Rockies, D-Backs and Padres would have a three-team playoff Monday and Tuesday to decide the West, with the Rockies getting the option of playing two games at home or one on the road. That would leave three teams playing for the wild card, and it's pointless to even begin guessing which ones would be involved. At this point, the permutations are almost endless.

Got all that?

I don't. And, now, I have a headache.

Sept. 27 -- BRAVE NEW WORLD

Well, that was a switch.

If you watched last night's 5-2 win over the Braves (who am I kidding, of course you watched it), you saw Chipper Jones make an uncharacteristic costly error that fueled the Phillies' three-run third inning. Chipper tried to tag Chase Utley, who was running from second to third, and when he missed, he airmailed a throw high and wide of first base, allowing Utley to score and keeping the inning alive for Greg Dobbs to line a two-run single that scored Ryan Howard and Aaron Rowand for a 4-0 lead.

As I was writing about the play, something occurred to me. This was the sort of mistake the Phillies usually make in late-season, pressure situations. The playoff-tested Braves, and especially Chipper, have rarely failed in those moments.

Then, a few hours later, the right-field scoreboard at the Bank showed the free-falling Mets had blown a big lead at Shea Stadium against Washington. Incredibly, impossibly, the Mets, who have been in first place every day since May 15 and for most of the past two seasons, were swept by the Nationals, leaving the Phillies one game off the division lead.

So, yes, maybe the balance of power really is shifting in the NL East.

But, before you get too giddy, the Phils still have to beat John Smoltz tonight. He'll be opposed by young Kyle Kendrick, who needs to channel Kyle Lohse's performance from last night. Meanwhile, Pedro Martinez goes to the mound for the Mets in New York in a makeup game against the positively dead Cardinals.

*
Last night's game was all about Lohse, who reminded everybody why agent Scott Boras is going to make him very, very rich in the offseason. I thought his comments about testing the free-agent market were refreshingly honest: "To be able to come here and jump in a playoff race with this group, it's good to finish it off in this kind of atmosphere. But I've kind of earned that right to go out [on the market]. You put your time in, you owe it to yourself to see what's out there."

Prediction: Some team will offer Lohse $55 million for five years. Is he worth it? You tell me.

*
Charlie Manuel swears he isn't thinking about the uncertainty of his future as Phillies manager. But, if he was, GM Pat Gillick wonders how anyone would know. And J.C. Romero compared last night's towel-waving crowd at the Bank to the atmosphere in Anaheim, where the "Rally Monkey" gets everyone stoked. "We played Anaheim in the playoffs in '02," Romero said. "I had migraines for a week after the season was over."

*
With all the talk of Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP (he has officially overtaken David Wright as my MVP pick), Martin Frank reminds us how good the reigning MVP is.

*
Here's how Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News, an old friend of The Blog, breaks down the Mets' free fall. Just in case the Mets keep losing, here's a look at the all-time choke jobs in MLB history. The Mets, of course, led the Phillies by seven games on Sept. 12.

1938 Pittsburgh Pirates -- led by seven games on Sept. 11
1934 New York Giants -- led by seven games on Sept. 6
1995 California Angels -- led by 6-1/2 games on Sept. 4
1964 Phillies -- led by 6-1/2 games on Sept. 20
1951 Brooklyn Dodgers -- led by 6-1/2 games on Sept. 8

OK, time to take an official Blog poll: Who will win the NL East -- Mets or Phillies? And why? Talk amongst yourselves. I'll check in from the Bank in a few hours. Meanwhile, I'm going to have some birthday cake. You only turn 31 once.

Sept. 26 -- BROKEN RECORD

Starting pitcher puts the Phillies in an early hole. League-leading Phillies offense battles back to seize the lead. Bullpen is unable to hold it.

Sound familiar?

What happened to the Phillies in last night's 10-6 loss to the Braves is exactly what has happened to them so often this season. And, if they don't make the playoffs, they can point to their pitching staff, which let them down on so many nights like this.

The Phillies hit four homers -- Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Chase Utley -- and it wasn't enough thanks to Jamie Moyer and Geoff Geary, who coughed up a 5-4 lead in the sixth inning. Moyer, typically a clutch September pitcher (39-33, 3.90 ERA in his career entering last night), had put the Phillies in a 4-1 bind early. The game story talks about how Moyer & Co. thought they had struck out Mark Teixeira in the first inning only to have Teixeira crush a three-run homer on the next pitch.

Either way, the Phillies will need a better performance from Kyle Lohse tonight, especially since the offense will have to contend with Braves co-ace Tim Hudson. And it doesn't get any easier tomorrow night with John Smoltz on the mound.

*
Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn't have much to say before the game when I asked him about the news that Pat Gillick plans to retire after next season. You can be sure Amaro hopes the Phillies will eventually appoint him as Gillick's successor. Then again, I'm certain he won't be holding his breath after being passed over in 2005 when Ed Wade got fired.

*
Had a chance to talk to Ryan Madson before the game. You haven't heard much about Madson lately because he's been at the Phillies' spring-training facility in Clearwater, rehabbing from a strained muscle in his right shoulder. But Madson is throwing again, off flat ground. He played catch yesterday with pitching coach Rich Dubee, and now, he's trying to convince Dubee and trainer Scott Sheridan that he's ready for a bullpen session. If the Phillies make the playoffs, Madson thinks he'll be ready to pitch.

So, I'll ask you this: Would you put Madson, who hasn't pitched since July 29, on the playoff roster ahead of Antonio Alfonseca or Jose Mesa, relievers who haven't pitched well over the past month?

*
Kevin Noonan hammers home the point that it's all about pitching, pitching, pitching.

*
At first, Adam Eaton said he was surprised to hear that Padres outfielder Milton Bradley tore his ACL while being restrained by his manager during an argument with an umpire. Then, Eaton remembered this was Bradley, notorious for his fiery temper.

"It just goes to show that emotions can get the best of you," Eaton said. "It's a shame to see, but maybe that's a wakeup call. He's got great talent and ability as good as anyone in the game. But they say your temper can get you in truble."

Still, the Padres won without Bradley on Tuesday night and have a one-game lead on the Phillies and the surging Rockies in the wild-card race. And, don't look now, but the Braves are only two games behind the Phils.

*
Check out a photo gallery from last night's game.

Sept. 25 -- ROTATION SHUFFLE

For at least 30 minutes before batting practice, Charlie Manuel and Adam Eaton had a conversation on the field. To me, it looked like Manuel did most of the talking. Eaton mostly listened.

Turns out, the Phils have slightly juggled their starting rotation, as expected. Eaton, who was scheduled to face the Braves on Thursday night, has been bumped to Saturday against the Nationals. Typically, he has more success against Washington (1-0 and 5.71 ERA in three starts this season, 1-0 and 4.89 in six career starts) than against Atlanta (1-2 and 11.20 ERA in three starts this season, 3-3 and 6.14 in eight career starts).

So, now, Kyle Kendrick will face the Braves on Thursday and Cole Hamels will face the Nats on Friday before Eaton starts Saturday and Jamie Moyer pitches the season finale Sunday. If there's a play-in game Monday, Kyle Lohse would start.

In case you're wondering, that would allow Hamels to pitch the opener of a playoff series next Wednesday. But we're getting ahead of ourselves a little, aren't we?

Sept. 25 -- TIED AT THE TOP

Six games to go, and it's a dead heat between the Phillies and Padres. May the best team, well, whichever team plays the best this week, win the wild card.

Buckle up.

It was, in fact, an enjoyable last regular-season day off for the Phillies yesterday. While they relaxed after a 10-day road trip, the banged-up Padres lost in San Francisco, leaving them tied with the Phillies in the wild-card standings. Chris Young, untouchable for most of the season, got roughed up, and Milton Bradley, the sparkplug of a largely dormant lineup, was KO'd for the season Sunday after unbelievably tearing his ACL while manager Bud Black tried to restrain him from arguing with the umpire. Mike Cameron, San Diego's starting center fielder, is also out for the remainder of the season with a partially torn thumb ligament and a strained hand tendon.

No wonder the Phillies are suddenly favored to win the wild card.

But before we put the Phillies in the playoffs, there's still the matter of the last six games. Charlie Manuel maintains that 90 wins will be required to make the playoffs, and I tend to agree. That means going 5-1 this week. And the Phils will have to face Braves co-aces Tim Hudson and John Smoltz on Wednesday and Thursday before the pesky Nationals come to town Friday.

*
I don't know if the Phillies will make the playoffs. But I know they wouldn't have a prayer if not for the Borat Brothers, Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs, two unheralded offseason acquisitions by Pat Gillick.

*
Talked to Gillick for a few minutes yesterday, and I asked him about Manuel's future. While he offered Manuel praise for keeping the Phillies afloat and in playoff contention amid all the injuries they've had, he stopped short of saying the Phils will offer Manuel a contract for next season. Gillick has one more year on his contract and plans to retire after next season. Here's what I think could happen: the Phillies could offer Manuel a one-year extension. When he asks for a multi-year deal, they decline, reasoning that they can't give Manuel a longer contract than Gillick. At that point, it'll be up to Manuel whether he wants to return or try to find employment elsewhere, perhaps Houston, where Ed Wade was named GM last week.

Regardless, this is going to be a big story for the Phillies in October. Stay tuned.

*
Of all the Phillies' new coaches, has anyone made a greater impact than Davey Lopes? Barring a disasterous week, the Phillies will finish the season having stolen bases at a historic rate.

*
Sounds like many of you have playoff fever. Or at least those of you that spoke with Martin Frank yesterday.

Sept. 24 -- DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME

Aaron Rowand won the World Series in 2005 with the White Sox. So did Tadahito Iguchi. Antonio Alfonseca pitched 6-1/3 scoreless innings for the Marlins in the 1997 World Series, the same year Jose Mesa blew a save for the Indians in Game 7. J.C. Romero, Kyle Lohse, Tom Gordon and Jamie Moyer have pitched in the playoffs. Abraham Nunez reached the NLCS with the Cardinals in 2005.

So, the Phillies know how big this week is.

And they know how costly yesterday's 6-3 loss in Washington may have been. The Phillies bid adieu to RFK Stadium by going 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranding 13. Coupled with the Mets win in Florida, the Phillies slipped to 2-1/2 games off the pace in the NL East. But they still trail the wild-card-leading Padres by only a half-game, and if they have a good week at home, they could make the playoffs.

How good? Well, going 5-1 against the Braves and Nationals almost certainly would get them in. Going 4-2 may be enough, considering the Padres play seven games on the road in San Francisco and Milwaukee. Anything less, and the Phillies will be home in October once again.

*
Cole Hamels thought he had 10 or 15 more good pitches left in him yesterday. But the Phils pulled their ace lefty after only 76 pitches, and it was hard to blame them. Hamels was making only second start since returning from a strained left elbow. Risking his considerable future to get a win yesterday wouldn't have been wise. Then again, with J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers needing a rest, another inning from Hamels would've been clutch.

*
In what has to be the strangest injury we've seen in a while, Milton Bradley tore his ACL while arguing with an umpire Sunday. Seriously. We couldn't make this stuff up. That's a huge blow to the Padres -- and maybe a break for the Phillies.

*
MLB and People Magazine are sponsoring the "Sexiest Fan Alive" contest. Fans are invited to upload their photos to www.people.com/sexyfan from now until Oct. 7. Don't think this guy will make the cut.

Sept. 23 -- SO LONG, RFK

WASHINGTON -- Cool ceremony going on right now on the field. In honor of the last scheduled baseball game at RFK Stadium, several former Washington Senators players have joined the Nationals on the field. Included among them are Frank Howard and Dick Bosman, two of the most popular players in Senators history.

This is a rather interesting ceremony since RFK isn't going anywhere. The 46-year-old stadium on the eastern edge of Capitol Hill will remain standing and serve as the home of the DC United soccer team. But, in April, the Nationals will move into a new ballpark on the banks of the Anacostia River. Drove by there earlier this morning, and it appears to be rising quickly. Much of the upper deck already is in place. Word is there will be a view of the Capitol Building over the outfield wall. Should be nice.

*
Meanwhile, the Phillies just keep winning. Ryan Howard went from a four-strikeout goat to a 10th-inning hero last night, driving home the go-ahead run in a 4-1 win. And, once again, the bullpen came up huge. J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers, whose durability is becoming a marvel, pitched for the fifth straight time and didn't allow a run. I wouldn't be surprised to see them again today.

*
Adam Eaton didn't pitch well (again) Friday night, but the Phillies will have no choice but to use him this week, probably Friday against the Nationals. Also, within the notebook, there's news that Scott Mathieson will be undergoing a second elbow surgery in 12 months Monday.

*
My Sunday baseball notes examine a storyline that has been lost amid the pennant race. Chase Utley is trying to become the first Phillies player since Richie Ashburn in 1958 to win a batting title. Also, Sen. Jim Bunning can relate to what the Mets went through last week.

Sept. 22 -- SERVE & PROTECT

WASHINGTON -- On the way back to my hotel last night, I was strolling through DC when I came upon America's most famous address: 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It was pretty late, but there were a few lights still on. Clearly, President Bush was burning the midnight oil.

Earlier in the day, he took time out of his schedule to meet with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Charlie Manuel and Phillies travel director Frank Coppenbarger in the Oval Office. Bush is a huge baseball fan (he used to own the Rangers), and, according to Myers and Hamels, he finds time to watch Baseball Tonight. Bush, you see, knew exactly where the Phillies stand in the NL East and wild-card races. So, he chit-chatted with the Phils for about 20 minutes, leaving them in complete and total awe. Utley, who gets political when the subject turns to global warming (he was moved by Al Gore's movie, "An Inconvenient Truth"), said Bush did most of the talking. For the most part, the Phillies just listened, nodded and took it all in.

Anyway, as you can imagine, it wasn't easy for Manuel to decide which players to bring on the White House expedition. The trip, arranged by Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), limited him to six players, and Manuel took his best.

Well, sort of.

"[Aaron] Rowand had already been there," Manuel said, referring to Rowand's trip as a member of the 2005 World Series-winning White Sox, "and I figured [Tom] Flash [Gordon] needed the rest."

Understandably.

Gordon, Myers and J.C. Romero have pitched in nearly every game for the past week. When they appeared in last night's 6-3 win over the Nationals at RFK, it marked the fourth straight game for the Big Three. Gordon and Myers have pitched in seven of the last eight. Romero has pitched in eight of the last nine. And, if you're worried about the effect of that workload, you're not alone. Manuel said he didn't want to use the Big Three last night, but when Adam Eaton allowed two runs in the fifth and walked the leadoff batter in the sixth, he knew he was going to have to, especially since all three told him before the game that they were ready to pitch.

"With eight games left, this is no time to be sitting around and saying, 'I can’t pitch today,'" Myers said. "Not unless your arm is falling off. That’s when I'll quit, when it falls off."

After meeting with Dubya, I guess you could say Myers was inspired. "He gave us a lecture about how you need to make decisions, make them fast and not worry about what people think," Myers said. "He kind of compared his job to what we do. I thought, 'You have to worry about everything, and all we have to worry about is playing the game.'"

*
Kevin Noonan explores Jimmy Rollins' MVP candidacy, which grew even stronger last night when he became the first player ever to have at least 200 hits, 15 triples, 25 homers and 25 steals in the same season. Last week, I wrote that David Wright would be my NL MVP pick. I may have to reconsider, even if the Phillies don't make the playoffs.

Sept. 21 -- PENNANT FEVER

WASHINGTON -- If, at about 10:45 last night, you had been in the cramped visitor's clubhouse at RFK Stadium, you might've thought the Phillies had clinched a playoff spot.

Having already come from behind to beat the pesky Nationals, 7-6, most of the Phillies were seated at a row of tables, eating dinner and watching the Mets-Marlins game, which had gone into the 10th inning after the Marlins rallied to tie it in the ninth. And when Dan Uggla drove home Hanley Ramirez with the game-winning run, the room erupted. There were high-fives and hugs, screams and yelps. With the Marlins' help, the Phillies moved to 1-1/2 games behind the first-place Mets in the NL East with nine games remaining (the Mets have 10 left).

And, so, the September roller coaster continues tonight. And it's absolutely a roller coaster. Late in the season, every win and loss is magnified. But I can't recall a season with so many momentum swings. Each time the Phillies win, I become more convinced they're going to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993. But when they lose, like they did Wednesday night in St. Louis, their prospects look increasingly bleak.

In or out? Out or in?

What do you think?

*
Ruben Amaro Jr. didn't get the Astros' GM job, but his good friend Ed Wade did. So, Amaro wasn't completely disappointed yesterday upon hearing the news. Also, within the notebook, Charlie Manuel and Greg Dobbs bristled at the suggestions by Yadier Molina and Brett Myers that the Phillies were playing a "no-doubles" defense in the 10th inning Wednesday night. When I asked Manuel about it, he even invited me to watch the video. Lo and behold, it appears Dobbs wasn't hugging the line, as a third baseman would in a "no-doubles" alignment.

*
Billy Wagner was unavailable to pitch for the Mets last night because of back spasms. Are they panicking in New York? You be the judge.

*
After Wednesday night's game, Manuel said the Phillies would have to go at least 7-3, maybe 8-2, to make the playoffs. Can they do it? They've done it before. Thanks to the always-reliable Dave Smith at retrosheet.org, here's a look at the best finishes in Phillies history.

9-1: 1907
8-2: 1920, 1929, 1952, 1976, 1983
7-3: 1901, 1903, 1915, 1963, 1966, 1977, 1980, 2004, 2005

Of those seasons, they went to the World Series in 1915, 1980 and 1983 and the NLCS in 1976 and 1977.

*
Shameless self-promotion alert: I'll be doing a quick interview with ESPN News before the game tonight. Check it out if you're close to a TV.

More later from RFK.

Sept. 20 -- WADE HIRED BY ASTROS

WASHINGTON -- Greetings from RFK Stadium, which is about to host its last four baseball games. Much more on that as the weekend chugs along.

For now, though, I wanted to pass along news that the Astros have hired former Phillies GM Ed Wade to fill their GM vacancy. Wade was picked over Phillies assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who is here with the team this weekend. Within the past few days, there had been speculation that the Astros would hire Amaro as the GM and Wade as a special advisor. But they didn't go in that direction.

"I'm very, very happy for him," Amaro said. "He's a close friend of mine, and I think they made a great choice. I think they would've made a great choice either way. Certainly, I'd love to have had the opportunity to take that job. It's a goal of mine to be a GM and run the baseball operations of an organization. But I'm pleased for Ed. I think the Astros made a great choice."

As I wrote in The News Journal last week, Amaro remains a possibility for the Pirates' GM vacancy because of his association with new team president Frank Coonelly. But the Pirates haven't asked for the Phillies' permission to interview Amaro.

More on all of this in tomorrow's 50-center. Also, I'll have some details on the Phillies' defensive positioning in the 10th inning last night. Let's just say Charlie Manuel and Greg Dobbs didn't agree with Yadier Molina's and Brett Myers' view of their defense.

*
Jason Bergmann, tonight's starter for the Nationals, and I graduated from the same New Jersey high school, albeit a few years apart. So, you could say it's a big night for Manalapan High here tonight.

Sept. 20 -- A COSTLY LOSS (UPDATED)

ST. LOUIS -- When 10 games remain in the season and a playoff spot hangs in the balance, every loss is damaging. But when Yadier Molina's hard grounder got through the left side of the infield (on his bobblehead night, no less) and Miguel Cairo scored from second base in the 10th inning last night, the Phillies were dealt a blow from which they may not recover.

Here's why:

* David Wright went 2-for-4 with three RBIs to snap the Mets' five-game losing streak.
* Cory Snyder went 3-for-3 with three RBIs to lead the Diamondbacks to another win.
* Scott Hairston hit a walk-off, three-run homer for the Padres.

So, the Phillies lost ground on the three teams they're chasing, in both the NL East and wild-card races. And before he boarded the bus to the airport, Charlie Manuel said he would've felt more comfortable heading to Washington with 83 wins because he thinks it's going to take at least 89, maybe 90, to make the playoffs.

I wasn't a math major in college, but I'd have to agree.

The Phillies are 82-70 and have 10 games left. The Mets and Padres are both 84-67 with 11 remaining. The Diamondbacks are 86-67 with nine to play. That means, if the Mets and Padres finish 5-6, the Phillies would have to go 7-3 just to tie them. If the Diamondbacks finish 4-5, the Phillies would have to go 8-2 to match them. A win last night would've made the Phillies road a little easier.

"I think we've got an 8-2 run in us," Manuel said. "I sure do."

They better. Or else, it'll be another October without baseball in Philadelphia.

*
Cole Hamels said his elbow felt fine Tuesday night. That's the good news. The bad news is he wasn't following through properly because he feared the pain in his elbow would return. He needs to overcome that fear if the Phillies have any prayer of making the playoffs. Also within the notebook, Antonio Alfonseca began serving his suspension, and the Phillies think four days off may do him some good. And, any day now, the Astros will name their new GM. Ruben Amaro Jr. is on their short list.

*
Seven of the Phillies' last 10 games are against the Nationals. But if you think beating them will be easy, the Phillies don't. Not to bring back bad memories, but don't forget what happened last September. When the Phillies arrived in DC to begin the final week of the season, they were tied for the wild-card lead. The Nats won two of three games, and when the Phils left, after that game that began unforgettably at 11:32 p.m. because of rain, they were all but eliminated.

"They did it to us last year," Hamels said. "They came in when we were tied and basically put us out. We’re aware of that this year because they’re a tough team. Even though they don’t have the record, they have some quality players. They can play with the best of us and beat the best. They’re doing it to the Mets right now, and we have to go in there and try to stop it."

Manuel added, "I think we know they can sneak up and get us. We’re 7-4 against them. We can beat ’em. Put it this way: If we can’t beat ’em, we don’t deserve to make it [to the playoffs]."

On that note, I have to hop a flight to DC. I'll check in later from RFK Stadium.

(Update, 2:15 p.m.): So, I was sitting in the airport in St. Louis this morning (couldn't get a wireless signal there), reading the Post-Dispatch, when I came across this nugget from Molina, who was surprised the Phillies were playing a "no-doubles" defense in the 10th. Molina didn't think he'd be able to pull Myers, so he wasn't sure why the Phillies had Greg Dobbs shading toward the third-base bag. That left a hole between third and short, and Molina was able to pull the ball just enough through the hole.

"I don't know why," Molina said of the Phillies' defensive posture. "Thank God, it went through."

After the game, Brett Myers had this to say about the defense: "We were playing 'no doubles,' and that leaves a big hole. That hole beats a lot of teams." Heading over to RFK in a few minutes. I'll make sure to ask Charlie Manuel why he employed that particular defense. Should be interesting to see what he says.

Sept. 19 -- LUCKY SIX

ST. LOUIS -- Before they played last night in Washington, the Mets held a 40-minute team meeting to help regain their focus and their confidence. Before the Phillies faced the Cardinals last night, they watched Wedding Crashers.

That pretty much sums up the past six days in the NL East.

Last Thursday, the Mets held a seven-game lead over the Phillies with 17 to play. Entering tonight's games, that cushion has been slashed to 1-1/2 games (two in the loss column) with 11 to go. With last night's 14-inning, 7-4 win over the depleted Cardinals, the Phillies got closer to first place than they've been since April 3.

Amazing, isn't it, how the Amazins' lead has evaporated? A Mets collapse would be historic. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has ever had a seven-game lead with 17 to play and not made the playoffs.

"They're coming this way, and we're going that way," Charlie Manuel said. "We'll leave it there."

Because last night's game took 5 hours, 4 minutes to play -- and didn't end until 1:14 a.m. in the East -- many of you didn't have a game story in your morning paper. And, even those of you who did, didn't have any quotes from Phillies players. Sorry about that. Deadlines for the 50-center can be a real drag on nights like that. But, luckily, I was able to speak to Manuel, Brett Myers, Jayson Werth, Rod Barajas and others in the Phillies' clubhouse and insert thoughts in the online edition, which you can read by clicking here.

*
Manuel thinks the Phillies' nucleus of position players -- Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell -- is better than any group that he's managed or coached. That's high praise, considering his Indians teams in the '90s featured the likes of Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome and Roberto Alomar.

*
Cole Hamels wasn't particularly sharp last night in his first start in 32 days. Then again, Hamels warned everyone that may be the case. He wasn't happy with the location of his change-up during his two simulated innings last Saturday in New York, even though bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer thought Hamels was being overly self-critical.

Didn't have a chance to talk with Hamels last night (I'll do that today), but considering he didn't have the luxury of a minor-league rehab start, the rustiness he exhibited last night was to be expected. I'm sure he'll be better in his next start, slated for Sunday in Washington.

Sept. 18 -- NO RELIEF

ST. LOUIS -- Charlie Manuel has survived a heart attack, quadruple bypass surgery and cancer.

He almost didn't make it through last night's game.

Say what you want about the Phillies. They're never dull. After taking an 11-0 lead against the Cardinals on two homers by St. Louis native Ryan Howard and long balls by Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand, they hung on for dear life to a 13-11 win thanks to the bullpen. With his only trustworthy relievers -- Brett Myers, Tom Gordon and J.C. Romero -- unavailable after pitching in three straight games against the Mets last weekend, Manuel was forced to turn to Clay Condrey, Jose Mesa, Antonio Alfonseca and Kane Davis in the seventh and eighth innings. Lo and behold, in the eighth, the Phillies found their lead cut to 12-11 with the tying run on base and Albert Pujols at the plate against Davis.

Talk about your Maalox moments.

"They had guys up who could've won them the game," Manuel said. "Absolutely unbelievable."

And Manuel thought Ryan Ludwick had given the Cardinals the lead when he drove a pitch from Davis to deep center fielder. Rowand ran the ball down at the edge of the warning track, caught it and fell to the ground. Nothing was coming easy.

Even in the ninth, after another Rowand homer opened a 13-11 lead, there were tense moments. Francisco Rosario, a fastball pitcher, put two runners on base when fastball-mashing former Phillies slugger Russell Branyan stepped to the plate. Rosario worked the count full before catching Branyan looking at strike three to end the game.

Whew.

"I passed my stress test," Manuel said. "I'll take an EKG right now."

*
With the way the relievers pitched, and considering how shorthanded the bullpen was, I can understand why people are hollering that Manuel lifted Kyle Kendrick too soon.

I just don't agree.

Kendrick was getting hit hard in the sixth inning. Skip Schumaker's double, Pujols' single and Ludwick's homer all came on pitches that were up in the strike zone. And when Kendrick's pitches are up, they get smoked. Also, keep in mind that Kendrick has thrown more innings than ever in his pro career. He's never before pitched in September either. And the Phillies are counting on him for at least two more starts -- and more if they make the playoffs. With a nine-run lead, taking him out after 89 pitches wasn't a bad idea.

*
A day after feeling a "twinge" in his lower back while he was pitching against the Mets, Gordon was still walking gingerly. But he said he'll be ready to pitch tonight, if the Phillies need him. We'll see about that. Also within the notebook, there's news of Jim Thome's call to Manuel on Sunday night after hitting his 500th homer. Manuel is Thome's baseball father, and his impact on Thome's career is profound.

*
Howard appears to have found the cure for his slump. Come home. Playing in front of his parents and his 6-year-old son Darian, he went 2-for-4 with two homers, including a grand slam. In 14 career games in St. Louis, Howard is batting .362. He has never gone hitless in a game at Busch Stadium, old or new.

Sept. 17 -- WHAT COULD'VE BEEN?

NEW YORK -- Greetings from the American Airlines terminal at LaGuardia Airport, only a few miles from Shea Stadium. Like most of you, I'm still trying to get my head around another Phillies sweep of the Mets. It really is remarkable a) how well the Phillies play against the Mets and b) how many breaks go their way whenever they face their division rivals. I mean, six errors and 11 walks yesterday? C'mon, people. You couldn't have predicted that.

But it also makes me wonder: how might this NL East race be different if only the Phillies had held a five-run lead Aug. 19 in Pittsburgh or Sept. 2 in Florida or a six-run lead in the eighth and ninth innings Sept. 5 in Atlanta? The Mets won Aug. 19 and Sept. 2, allowing them to pick up a game on the Phillies each time. They lost Sept. 5, so if the Phillies had only done something teams had done without fail 517 times before them (protect a six-run lead with two innings to play), they would've picked up a game. A different outcome on those three days, and the Phillies would be a half-game behind the Mets right now.

Then, we'd have ourselves a division race.

Instead, they're 3-1/2 back, four in the loss column. And, while it's still mathematically conceivable that they could overtake the Mets, the odds remain decidedly against them. So, it's still probably wild card or bust for the Phillies, as they get ready to play in St. Louis tonight.

*
Talked to Greg Dobbs yesterday about his big grand slam, and since I wasn't able to get many of his comments in the 50-center, I wanted to share them here. He said it was undoubtedly the biggest hit of his career. "You're just floating on air," Dobbs added. "You're just happy to be able to do something to put your club ahead. That's the most gratifying, that I was able to give us the lead. That's very special, and I feel fortunate to be able to do that in this arena, especially at this time, with how much we've been battling." Dobbs, by the way, has 18 pinch-hit RBIs this season. The major-league record is 25, shared by Joe Cronin, Jerry Lynch and Rusty Staub. And, with a .281 average, 10 homers and 52 RBIs in only 292 at-bats, you'd have to say Dobbs, a waiver claim from the Mariners, was Pat Gillick's best offseason move, wouldn't you? You might even call it a steal.

*
Special thanks to Dave Smith of the University of Delaware and the fantastic statistical Web site, retrosheet.org. Even before yesterday's game had ended, Dave e-mailed me with the longest winning streaks in Phillies-Mets history. Here they are ...

Phillies over Mets
10 games -- June 29, 1980 through May 25, 1981
8 games -- June 21, 1964 through Aug. 16, 1964
8 games -- Sept. 5, 1976 through June 4, 1977
8 games -- July 1, 2007 through Sept. 16, 2007

Mets over Phillies
10 games -- Sept. 10, 1971 through June 28, 1972

*
Ryan Howard broke Jim Thome's franchise record for strikeouts in a single season yesterday with his 183rd. But it's all good. Thome hit his 500th career home in Chicago. If Howard winds up having the career Thome has had, nobody will fixate on the strikeouts.

*
About to hop on a plane to St. Louis. I'll check in later today from Busch Stadium, hopefully with an update on Tom Gordon's aching back.

Sept. 16 -- FEELS LIKE OCTOBER

NEW YORK -- So, I was eating breakfast before today's game when a newspaper reporter who covers the Mets told me he already has reserved a hotel room in Philly for Games 3, 4 and 5 of the NLCS.

That's how highly folks in New York regard the Phillies.

Those of us who have watched this team for the past few seasons aren't as confident. No one needs to be reminded that the Phils were in virtually the same position at this time last season and missed the playoffs. Last week, I asked Charlie Manuel and several players why this season should be different than any other. Read what they had to say.

The script was the same yesterday, as the Phils won their seventh straight over the Mets. They capitalized on Mets mistakes (Shawn Green's seventh-inning error, Carlos Beltran's misplay in center field on Jimmy Rollins' game-winning triple in the eighth, Jose Reyes getting caught stealing twice) and got spotless relief pitching. The Phillies' maligned bullpen, battered by everyone else, has tossed 17 straight scoreless innings at Shea Stadium.

One word on Rollins' triple: Aaron Rowand said he was battling a low sun for most of the day in center field. Beltran didn't use the conditions as an excuse. He said he simply made a bad read.

*
Even though they've narrowed the Mets' lead in the NL East to 4-1/2 games, the Phillies still think the wild card is their best route to the playoffs. After yesterday's game, Chris Coste said the Mets "know they're still in a great position." And, while I tend to agree, consider this: If the Phillies win today with Adam Eaton (4-0, 1.98 ERA in four career starts at Shea) on the mound, the Mets are starting Brian Lawrence and Mike Pelfrey in two of their next three games. With a good series in St. Louis, the Phillies could put serious pressure on them. And, as you can read in this notebook, Cole Hamels is ready to start Tuesday night for the Phils.

*
In my Sunday baseball notes, I write that David Wright would be my pick for NL MVP. To me, Jimmy Rollins is a very close second, and with two weeks still left in the season, my mind is hardly made up. Also in this story, you can read about how Phillies draft pick Matt Rizzotti homered last year off Yankees rookie sensation Joba Chamberlain. No major league hitter has done that yet.

*
Rollins has certainly backed up his offseason prediction that the Phillies, not the Mets, are the "team to beat" in the NL East. In 17 games against the Mets, Rollins is batting .355 (27-for-76) with six homers and 14 RBIs.

Sept. 15 -- GET RICH QUICK

NEW YORK -- With every quality start Kyle Lohse makes, the Phillies get closer to earning a playoff berth.

And Lohse gets closer to earning a huge contract.

Lohse's agent, Scott Boras, dropped by Shea last night to watch the Phillies beat the Mets in 10 innings and chat with some of his clients. This winter, few will be as important to Boras as Lohse, even though the soon-to-be-a-free-agent right-hander will take a 62-74 career record to the mound with him today against the Mets.

Why the fuss over a sub-.500 pitcher? Well, the market won't exactly be ripe with pitching. Not after Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle signed long-term contracts and avoided free agency. With the increasing demand for pitching and the decreasing supply, average pitchers like Lohse will command big bucks. Add in that Lohse will be only 29 when next season starts, that he has never suffered a major arm injury and that he always has pitched in hitter-friendly ballparks (Minnesota, Cincinnati, and now, Philadelphia), he has qualities that plenty of teams will find attractive.

Had a chance to talk to Boras before last night's game. He didn't discuss specifics about how much money he'll be seeking for Lohse, but my guess is Lohse will get a four- or five-year deal worth $10-12 million per season.

If you were the Phillies, would you pay that price to keep him?

*
To me, Jamie Moyer's performance was the most important thing in last night's 3-2 win, so it was the focus of the game story. And, as Martin Frank wrote, it's always about pitching for the Phillies. But let's not forget that Chase Utley hit his 20th homer, giving the Phillies a franchise-record five players with at least 20. Ryan Howard (38), Pat Burrell (28), Jimmy Rollins (27) and Aaron Rowand (23) have already reached that plateau.

*
Once a game, the Mets play this video on the left-field scoreboard. If it's not the best between-innings entertainment in the majors, I don't know what is.

Sept. 14 -- MEETING THE METS

NEW YORK -- Greetings from Shea Stadium.

Got to make this quick today, since the Phillies' clubhouse opens to the media in about 10 minutes. This was supposed to be a big series. Huge. Enormous. Every bit as big as that Yankees-Red Sox series this weekend at Fenway Park. After the Phillies swept a four-game series from the Mets two weeks ago at the Bank, only two games separated the teams in the NL East. This was going to be the series that decided the division.

Or not.

The Phillies are 6-7 since sweeping the Mets. The Mets are 10-2 and have a 6-1/2-game lead with 16 to play. The division is all but over. But the Phillies need to win games to stay in the wild-card race, and the Mets would like nothing more than to bury them, especially after they accused the Phillies of stealing signs during the sweep last month. Yeah, these teams don't particularly like each other. Just ask Billy Wagner.

*
Big win last night for the Phils, but really, every win is big at this point. Geoff Geary gave them exactly what they needed after J.D. Durbin didn't. But the Phillies will need better starts from Jamie Moyer, Kyle Lohse and Adam Eaton if they have any prayer this weekend.

*
Kyle Kendrick appears to be fine. Everyone breath easy. Also within the notebook, Charlie Manuel says he got a little loud and heated in the dugout Wednesday night. See, Charlie can get angry, after all.

*
Quick travel tip: if you're coming to any of the games this weekend, leave plenty of time. The construction of the Mets' new ballpark has intensified. Speaking of which, Citi Field is going up quickly. Very quickly. Looks like it's going to be pretty awesome, too. Click here for a sketch of what it's going to look like.

Sept. 13 -- WOUNDED KNEE

So, during batting practice yesterday, a few of us reporters were talking to pitching coach Rich Dubee about Cole Hamels' encouraging 30-pitch bullpen session (more on that later). Dubee was cautiously optimistic about the possibility of Hamels pitching next Tuesday or Wednesday in St. Louis. But, with the way things have gone for the Phillies' pitching staff this season, Dubee didn't want to get too far ahead of himself.

"The way our rotation has gone,” he said, “we just wait until the day before and find out who’s healthy and go with them.”

A few hours later, Dubee was standing over Kyle Kendrick, who was writhing on the ground after being hit in the knee by a Garrett Atkins line drive in the fourth inning.

As you may imagine, Kendrick was the focus of my game story in the 50-center. After the game, he was walking around the clubhouse with relative ease. Other than a mark on the outside of his knee and some swelling, he looked fine. X-rays were negative, and Kendrick was diagnosed with a right knee bruise. Depending on how he feels over the next few days, he may not miss a start.

That would be a rare lucky break for the Phillies. Kendrick has been their most consistent starter since Hamels got hurt last month. But that's not saying much. In their last 11 games, the Phillies have gotten only two quality starts, both from Kyle Lohse. In the 25 games since Hamels' last pitched, they've had only eight quality starts.

For a team that's trying to make the playoffs, that's not good enough. Not even close.

"It's show-me time," Charlie Manuel said of his pitching. "If we have it, let's see it."

*
Hamels threw 25 fastballs and five changeups without reporting discomfort. Next up: a two-inning simulated game Saturday in New York. After that, he may be ready to start in St. Louis. Interestingly, Hamels has felt better ever since he began taking anti-inflammatory medication after a setback during a bullpen session Aug. 31. Hamels doesn't like taking drugs to help heal his arm. Instead, he's a proponent of new-age remedies, like chiropractic treatment, massage therapy and homeopathic medicine. But, in this case, the anti-inflammatories did the trick.

*
Because he plays in Denver and not Philly or New York, Matt Holliday is the best player most people have never heard of. This week, he's showing the Phillies exactly how good he is. In the first three games of the series, Holliday is an astounding 6-for-11 with four homers and eight RBIs. I really wish I'd squeezed that into the newspaper, but unlike Holliday lately, I whiffed. Holliday has 30 homers and a league-leading 119 RBIs and has to be a serious MVP candidate, with Prince Fielder, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Albert Pujols and possibly Chase Utley.

*
Spent so much time on Kendrick that I didn't write much about the first-inning triple play turned by the Phillies (against Holliday, no less). With runners on first and second, Holliday hit a line drive to Greg Dobbs at third base. Dobbs doubled off Cory Sullivan at second by throwing to Utley, who tagged Troy Tulowitzki between first and second. It was the 30th triple play in Phillies history and their second this season. Abraham Nunez, Utley and Wes Helms turned one April 21 in Cincinnati. "Matt hits the ball so hard," Sullivan told the Rockies Web site. "That very easily off anybody else could've been two bounces, but the third-base umpire immediately called an out and I just stopped. I think they ended up turning five."

*
Taking the day off for the Jewish holiday. Talk to you Friday from Shea Stadium. Meanwhile, chew on this: the Phillies are 76-69. Chances are, the NL wild-card winner will have 86-88 victories. That means the Phils would need to go at least 10-7, but probably 11-6 or 12-5 to make the playoffs. Can they do it? Talk amongst yourselves.