Sept. 20 -- A COSTLY LOSS (UPDATED)

ST. LOUIS -- When 10 games remain in the season and a playoff spot hangs in the balance, every loss is damaging. But when Yadier Molina's hard grounder got through the left side of the infield (on his bobblehead night, no less) and Miguel Cairo scored from second base in the 10th inning last night, the Phillies were dealt a blow from which they may not recover.

Here's why:

* David Wright went 2-for-4 with three RBIs to snap the Mets' five-game losing streak.
* Cory Snyder went 3-for-3 with three RBIs to lead the Diamondbacks to another win.
* Scott Hairston hit a walk-off, three-run homer for the Padres.

So, the Phillies lost ground on the three teams they're chasing, in both the NL East and wild-card races. And before he boarded the bus to the airport, Charlie Manuel said he would've felt more comfortable heading to Washington with 83 wins because he thinks it's going to take at least 89, maybe 90, to make the playoffs.

I wasn't a math major in college, but I'd have to agree.

The Phillies are 82-70 and have 10 games left. The Mets and Padres are both 84-67 with 11 remaining. The Diamondbacks are 86-67 with nine to play. That means, if the Mets and Padres finish 5-6, the Phillies would have to go 7-3 just to tie them. If the Diamondbacks finish 4-5, the Phillies would have to go 8-2 to match them. A win last night would've made the Phillies road a little easier.

"I think we've got an 8-2 run in us," Manuel said. "I sure do."

They better. Or else, it'll be another October without baseball in Philadelphia.

*
Cole Hamels said his elbow felt fine Tuesday night. That's the good news. The bad news is he wasn't following through properly because he feared the pain in his elbow would return. He needs to overcome that fear if the Phillies have any prayer of making the playoffs. Also within the notebook, Antonio Alfonseca began serving his suspension, and the Phillies think four days off may do him some good. And, any day now, the Astros will name their new GM. Ruben Amaro Jr. is on their short list.

*
Seven of the Phillies' last 10 games are against the Nationals. But if you think beating them will be easy, the Phillies don't. Not to bring back bad memories, but don't forget what happened last September. When the Phillies arrived in DC to begin the final week of the season, they were tied for the wild-card lead. The Nats won two of three games, and when the Phils left, after that game that began unforgettably at 11:32 p.m. because of rain, they were all but eliminated.

"They did it to us last year," Hamels said. "They came in when we were tied and basically put us out. We’re aware of that this year because they’re a tough team. Even though they don’t have the record, they have some quality players. They can play with the best of us and beat the best. They’re doing it to the Mets right now, and we have to go in there and try to stop it."

Manuel added, "I think we know they can sneak up and get us. We’re 7-4 against them. We can beat ’em. Put it this way: If we can’t beat ’em, we don’t deserve to make it [to the playoffs]."

On that note, I have to hop a flight to DC. I'll check in later from RFK Stadium.

(Update, 2:15 p.m.): So, I was sitting in the airport in St. Louis this morning (couldn't get a wireless signal there), reading the Post-Dispatch, when I came across this nugget from Molina, who was surprised the Phillies were playing a "no-doubles" defense in the 10th. Molina didn't think he'd be able to pull Myers, so he wasn't sure why the Phillies had Greg Dobbs shading toward the third-base bag. That left a hole between third and short, and Molina was able to pull the ball just enough through the hole.

"I don't know why," Molina said of the Phillies' defensive posture. "Thank God, it went through."

After the game, Brett Myers had this to say about the defense: "We were playing 'no doubles,' and that leaves a big hole. That hole beats a lot of teams." Heading over to RFK in a few minutes. I'll make sure to ask Charlie Manuel why he employed that particular defense. Should be interesting to see what he says.