Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Sept. 11 -- PAT THE BAT

Strip away all the layers from last night's game -- the Rockies' homer that wasn't, Matt Holliday's two-run homer on the only strike thrown by Jose Mesa, Ryan Howard's game-winning RBI double that Holliday kicked around in the left-field corner in the 10th inning -- and you're left with this hard-to-fathom reality:

Pat Burrell is baseball's hottest hitter.

If the season started in July, Burrell could make a case for NL MVP. In leading the Phils to a rousing 6-5 comeback win over the Rockies, Burrell went 2-for-5 with a game-tying, three-run homer off Jorge Julio in the seventh inning. After the game, I was talking to a few Phillies about Burrell, who has four homers in his last 17 at-bats, leads the NL with 53 RBIs since the All-Star break and is tied for second with 17 post-All-Star break homers. Here's a sampling of what they said:

-Ryan Howard: "He's just carrying us. I don't think there's anybody hotter than him."
-Aaron Rowand: "I've known Pat longer than probably anybody in this locker room. This is what he's capable of doing."
-Brett Myers: "I don't think I've seen him hit like this before. There's a switch you can turn on. Pat's turned both switches on."

But don't take their word for it. Check out the numbers:

-Before July 2: 76 G, .201, 8 HR, 32 RBI, .369 OBP, .364 SLG, .733 OPS
-Since July 2: 60 G, .337, 20 HR, 58 RBI, .448 OBP, .698 SLG, 1.146 OPS

Maybe this guy -- and our friend Jamie (I wonder if they're the same person) -- were right all along. What accounts for the turnaround? Burrell isn't saying. Charlie Manuel said Burrell's exhibiting better balance at the plate. Jimmy Rollins has a one-word explanation: "Confidence." Regardless, Burrell is giving the Phillies exactly what they expect for $13 million. And, if he keeps hitting like this, he may just carry them to the playoffs, don't you think?

*
Speaking of playoffs, here are your up-to-the-minute NL wild-card standings. Manuel won't concede the NL East to the Mets, even though it will take a minor miracle for the Phillies to overtake them. Burrell, however, admits the Phils' only shot to make the playoffs is via the wild card. Baseball Prospectus estimates it will take 88 wins to capture the NL wild card. To get there, the Phillies would have to go 12-7 in their last 19 games. Not too tough, right? "Realistically, when we had the [2-4] road trip and lost those tough games, we had to shift our attention away from the Mets," he said. "Obviously, if that happens, it happens. But six games at this point is tough, so we had to regroup. Sometimes, that's hard."

*
Judging from the replay, it looked to me like the ball hit by Yorvit Torrealba in the fourth inning was a homer. Rockies manager Clint Hurdle agreed. But first-base umpire Mike DiMuro ruled it a two-run double instead of a grand slam. Understandably, Hurdle wasn't happy.

What did you think?

*
Lost in all the late-game action was another quality start for Kyle Lohse, who quietly is pitching his way toward a big off-season payday. Lohse knows it, and you can bet his agent, Scott Boras, does too. In 29 starts between Cincy and Philly, Lohse is 8-12 with a 4.47 ERA. But 14 of his starts qualify as quality starts (minimum six innings, maximum three runs), and with the Reds, he didn't get much run support. In 12 of his starts, he's gotten three runs or less.

Is Lohse (62-74, 4.80 ERA in his career) worth $10 million a year? He might get that sort of money on the free-agent market. Don't forget: Gil Meche got a five-year, $55 million deal from the Royals last winter.

Finally, funny story about Lohse: he's very superstitious. After he left the game last night, he said he was sitting in the video room behind the dugout when Burrell hit the game-tying homer. So, he stayed in the same seat until Howard's RBI double won the game.

*
Clearwater was unable to pull off the sweep in the Florida State League Championship Series. But the Threshers still lead the best-of-five series, 2-1, going to Game 4 tonight at Bright House Networks Field.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

my man.

oh i forgot, i don't know what i'm talking about.

Anonymous said...

You really dont, Jaimie, but it's nice to see him putting up the numbers that we all know hes capable of. It's been refreshing to watch him hit clutch home runs, and more importantly, not get the royal snow-job from the fan base, me included.

Anonymous said...

so tell me, where have i been wrong at?

Anonymous said...

todd,
love your blog, man.

Anonymous said...

Funny stuff ... inky dinky! This blog sure does look like Inky blog on many days. Looks like we got a copy cat here. From now on, it's ZOOOOOOO ZOOOONE for me, an ORIGINAL blog.

Scott Lauber said...

Anonymous: Sorry you feel that way, but the thoughts here are my own. They also reflect what I write in the newspaper, and very often, these posts are filed after I finish covering a game. Can't help it if others see the game the way I do.