Friday, November 07, 2008

Nov. 7 -- RUMORS, RUMORS & MORE RUMORS

BY SCOTT LAUBER

Even before Ruben Amaro Jr. took over as general manager, it was the policy of the Phillies' front office not to comment on rumors. To a reporter, like myself, that's disappointing. But, of course, it's also rather understandable, especially at this time of year when the rumor mill churns faster than usual.

To wit: The GM meetings ended yesterday in Dana Point, Calif., and in reality, not much happened. The Dodgers made a two-year, $45 million offer that Manny Ramirez, at the advice of Scott Boras, surely will turn down. There was some procedural discussion of instant replay and maple bats, but that was about it. But any time 30 major-league general managers gather at a resort hotel, the rumors are bound to fly. Sprinkle in a bunch of agents and a few reporters, and the rumor mill cranks into overdrive.

SI.com floated a doozy of a rumor yesterday involving the Phillies and Matt Holliday, and it has caught on like wild fire. Basically, though, here's what we know: Yes, the Phillies and Rockies had discussions in July about Holliday, and any talks always began with Shane Victorino and included a few prospects, namely Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson. At that time, the Phillies weren't compelled to trade Victorino, and the flat-out refused to move Marson. To my knowledge, those feelings haven't changed. But, if they aren't inclined to re-sign Pat Burrell (and they haven't been exhibiting much urgency in that area), would they consider packaging Jayson Werth and a prospect or two (not Marson) for Holliday, who would give them a scary right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup to go with lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard?

Sure, it's possible. If I was Amaro, I'd certainly consider it. But here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. For as great as he is, Holliday has undoubtedly benefited from hitting in Coors Field. He's a .357 career hitter with 84 homers and 307 RBIs at home. On the road, he's a .280 career hitter with 44 homers and 176 RBIs. Of course, Citizens Bank Park is a pretty darned good ballpark for hitting, and in his career, Holliday has four homers and 12 RBIs in 14 games at the South Philly Bandbox.

2. Holliday will make $13.5 million next season (Burrell made $14 million in 2008), so for one year, he'd seemingly fit into the Phillies' salary structure. But he'll become a free agent after 2009. Should the Phillies package Werth and two prospects (Carrasco and J.A. Happ, perhaps) for a player they may not be able to re-sign a year from now?

3. Though he's far from a Gold Glove outfielder, Holliday would be an upgrade over Burrell. What, though, would the Phillies do in right field? It's rather obvious that Geoff Jenkins is no longer an everyday player. Neither, it seems, is Matt Stairs. And while the Phillies believe Greg Dobbs may be able to handle the defensive responsibilities of left field, their opinion of him in right field is much different.

So, clearly, the Holliday possibility sparks as many questions as it does answers. OK, put yourself in Amaro's new GM shoes: Would you trade for Holliday? If so, what would you be willing to give up?

***
Burrell and Jamie Moyer filed for free agency yesterday. No shock there. Strictly a procedural move, and quite frankly, I'm surprised they waited as long as they did.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I know it's not strictly related to our LF situation...but I was wondering if you had any knowledge about what the catching situation might be next season. Do you think Lou Marson will be offered the role of back up to ruiz?

Anonymous said...

I know it's not strictly related to our LF situation...but I was wondering if you had any knowledge about what the catching situation might be next season. Do you think Lou Marson will be offered the role of back up to ruiz?

Anonymous said...

Scott, you left out one of the most important drawbacks about M.Holliday......his agent is S.Boras. So, no shot at a trade and sign.

So with that I say no way. Is Holliday a better hitter than Werth? Yes. Is he so much better that I'm willing to make that trade including prospects? No way.

Unknown said...

If the Phillies think that they have a shot to repeat next year by adding Holiday at the cost of Werth and any prospect(s) not named Marson I would pull the trigger. Werth could be a decent everyday player but his glove is overrated and he might never be able to hit right handed pitching. Sandwich Holiday between Utley and Howard and that whole home/road split issue goes away.

Anonymous said...

The Phillies are pretty screwed economically... With Moyer wanting a multi year deal to Burrell wanting more than 2. Burrell settling for a ''fair'' deal? His idea of a fair deal apparently isn't Amaro's. The only way he'll end up back in Philly is if no one gives him 3 years at least 30 million elsewhere.

http://antiphillies.blogspot.com/

I put more of the details there... Burrell isn't coming back. Amaro is not as swift as Gillick. He's out to please ownership and the Phillies are not known for spending