Whenever I hear about pitching prospect in high school having "a great breaking ball," I always think of the brother of Jerry Martin. You remember Jerry Martin ... the defensive replacement Danny Ozark DIDN'T put in for Greg Luzinski in the ninth inning, likely costing the Phillies the 1977 NLCS against the Dodgers. Well, his brother Mike was a first-round pick by the Phillies, supposedly having the best curveball anyone had ever seen by a high school pitcher. Remember what he did with the big club? No? That's because he blew out his arm well before he got there.
Which brings me to Kyle Drabek, the Phillies' top pick last week out of The Woodlands H.S. in Texas. He's 5-11, has a blazing fastball, and a terrific breaking ball (I've heard slider by some, curve by others). But every time a team uses a No. 1 on a high school pitcher, I cringe. It's going to be a minimum of four years until he reaches the bigs and so many things can go wrong, especially since you've only had a limited number of innings in high school or summer league ball to evaluate him. How will he develop physically and emotionally? Or, worse, what if he's already through developing? Can his arm stand the strain of minor league ball, more innings against pro hitters? What has that great breaking ball done to his pitching arm during his formative years?
My preference is always to take a college pitcher. You get a better read on his maturing body, his arm's durability, and his actual talent. Plus, if he's first-round material, he's much closer to being major league-ready. I know Brett Myers appears close to being an All-Star, but Cole Hamels has already had injury issues and Gavin Floyd seems to be suffering from a serious confidence problem.
I don't mind high school pitchers being drafted in later rounds, but I don't like to risk a first-round pick on one. Now that the deal is done, I can only hope Drabek will be almost as good as his dad was.
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I don't disagree with you, Tom. And a lot of big-league GMs refuse to take high school pitchers in the first round. That's one of the reasons, along with his alleged off-field issues, that Drabek dropped to the Phillies at No. 18.
But, just to play devil's advocate for a moment:
In March, when I was reporting a story on pitch counts, I came across an alarming number of instances where pitchers were over-worked, and sometimes abused, by college coaches who felt pressure to build and maintain a winning program.
So, perhaps there's an advantage to drafting high school pitchers, after all? They're younger, so there's less unnecessary wear on their arms.
Just a thought.
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