What, no thoughts on Jimmy Rollins' comments about Ryan Howard's need to work harder on his defense? C'mon, people. I know you have an opinion.Well, this should get your attention: The Mets are on the verge of completing a deal for Johan Santana, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale. Top outfield prospect Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey would go to Minnesota in exchange for the two-time Cy Young Award-winning lefty. All that remains is the Mets' ability to sign Santana to a six- or seven-year contract for at least $20 million per year, maybe more. They have a 48- to 72-hour window to work out a deal with Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg.
I used to cover the Mets' double-A team in Binghamton, N.Y., but none of those prospects had reached that level before I left in 2005. Still, people I know around the Mets' organization say there are question marks about all three pitchers. And while Gomez is highly regarded, the Mets still have Fernando Martinez, a 19-year-old outfielder they like just as much. They also didn't have to include pitcher Mike Pelfrey in the deal.
So, assuming the Mets get it done, who has the best starting rotation?
METS: Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Orlando Hernandez
PHILLIES: Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton
BRAVES: Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Chuck James, Mike Hampton
11 comments:
I think the Phillies by far have the weakest of the trio. The Mets have 3 all stars + El Duque who is always very good when healthy. The Phillies have 2 guys with very high upside, but follow that with 3 question marks. It's very disappointing to see the Mets get the best pitcher in baseball for 4 guys who Peter Gammons characterized as guys who wouldn't even make the Yankees or Red Sox' top 10 prospect lists. Looking more broadly, I'd say this trade drops the Phillies back to the 5th or 6th team in the league. Arizona was better last year and traded for a top starting pitcher, The Cubs are about to get Brian Roberts + already signed Fukomdome, the Mets now get Santana, and the Braves had a quiet, but productive off-season. Throw the Rockies in, and I just don't see how getting Brad Lidge (a very good deal), and signing guys like Pedro Feliz + Geoff Jenkins cuts it. I'd love to be proven wrong. This offseason is somewhat like what Lee Thomas did before 1993, but I just don't see it.
uhh, crap?
Now this certainly bolsters the Mets' biggest weakness, but all this talk on ESPN and from annoying Mets fans about how the Mets should be the favorites to win the National League seems to me to be a big ignorant.
You have Santana, a questionable Pedro and then behind that some streaky guys in the Mets rotation. Aside from their 3rd baseman and shortstop, they have question marks all around the field...including a bullpen that lost quite a few games for them down the stretch last year.
Would I prefer Santana to have gone to the Yankees or Red Sox? Of course, but I won't raise the white flag right now. I think this makes the Braves, Phillies and Mets pretty even right now and should make for an exciting, if not stressful, season.
One more thought. Does this raise the importance on trying to get Lohse back in red pinstripes?
Say goodbye to the playoffs for a few years, Phillies lemmings. I heard Lauber campaigned for the Santana - Mets trade 4 years ago..
just take a look at the back end fifth starters....hernandez, Hampton, or eaton.
whom would you rather have?
at least Hampton could pop 10 out of CPB.....
Hey Slauber, will this turn into another Kazmir for Zambrano debacle for the Mets? Betcha Mets make a deal soon to get Kazmir back.
Brian: I tend to agree that the Mets and Braves have better rotations. That said, I think the Phillies have the best lineup of the three teams. They replaced Rowand's bat with Feliz and Jenkins, and I don't think it's crazy to think this lineup can score 900 runs. If they do that and get good relief pitching, they may be able to survive a shaky back of the rotation.
Peyton: I agree with you. The gap between the Phillies, Mets and Braves isn't very large. To call the Mets the overwhelming favorite is a bit premature. Then again, the Mets are used to celebrating division titles before they win them, aren't they?
Peyton: Good question about Lohse. I think the Phillies would love to have him back, but only at the right price. The last time they panicked in the free agent market, they signed Adam Eaton to a three-year, $24.5 million contract, and look how that turned out. What I'm saying is they won't overpay in money or years for Lohse just because the Mets got Santana. I think that's prudent.
Paul W.: I'd rather have El Duque or Hampton. But you're assuming Hampton will be healthy. Atlanta's fifth starter may end up being Jair Jurrgens, a touted prospect but hardly a proven commodity.
Jingles: Can't see this turning into a Kazmir-like disaster for the Mets. Then again, if they had Kazmir, they wouldn't have needed to trade the farm for Santana. What are people in Binghamton saying about this? Or are they still talking about the AHL All-Star Game?
Hey Scott,
I'm with you on the thought that the Mets have no reason to celebrate the division just yet. Look where that got them last year. [I like your attitude there!]
I just wanted to pass along the news that I'm the new Reading correspondent for phuturephillies.com, so I'll be attending probably two or three games a week. It should be pretty exciting, since most of the Phillies top propsects will be playing there this season. If you ever need any info or objective observations on the double-A part of the Phillies minor league system, I'm definitely willing to help you out.
Keep up the excellent work.
Also, I would say the Phillies have the weakest SP out of those three teams. A pattern I've noticed emerging among successful teams is the "Big 3" -- three guys that could be legitimate aces on any staff in baseball. The Phillies only have two of those -- Hamels and Myers. Kendrick could not be an ace, neither could Moyer or Eaton or whoever else the team trots out there. The Phillies are one ace away from an outstanding team.
Rob, I agree that the Phillies definitely have the weakest rotation out of the three teams mentioned. However, I feel that their offense is the most consistent of the three. No matter how you look at it, the Braves lost Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria in the past few months. They're going to have to expect McCann to bounce back, Francoeur to improve even further, and for Chipper to stay healthy. Not too sure how much of that I could trust on happening and carrying an entire team's offense throughout an entire season.
The Mets have a good offense, no doubt. Unfortunately for them, several of their everyday players are question marks. Alou (41), Castillo (knees), Castro (back) and Chavez (hamstring) are all going to have to avoid the injury bug, along with Delgado who is coming off a broken hand and the worst offensive year of his career. Will Wright struggle out of the gate again in 08? Will Reyes perform like a true leadoff hitter in months other than April and June? How will Pedro fare? And the bullpen still isn't capable of performing lights-out. But the Mets morale is already flying, as good ol' Moises was quoted today as saying, "Every team in the division became stronger, but now with Santana we're the favorites again," ("...at least on paper," right?) I guess we'll have to wait and see.
While the Phillies have what seems to be a legitimate ace in Hamels, let's just hope that his late-season elbow inflammation won't flare up again and result in a procedure that I'm too frightened to even think about. Myers seems to have matured a lot in 2007, both as an athlete and an individual, so hopefully that translates to an overall successful 32 starts. My thoughts on the back end of the rotation would basically be an echo of what we've already read here, but I just hope that Lohse isn't picked up for anything more than two years. Some people think that Kyle Lohse is the answer to our rotation problems. Kyle Lohse. I'll just leave it at that.
No matter how you look at it, the (pending) Santana acquisition is a huge move for the Mets. But looking at what they traded for him, could the Phillies have actually had a shot?
I don't by the Penant either. The rest of the team still has to play. Something they obviously couldn't do at the end of last season. Santana pitches 33 COMPLETE games, allowing 1 run in each. The rest of the team still needs to score 2 runs....
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