OK, before we begin, let's get some things straight:1. Ryan Howard made $900,000 in 2007, and no matter what -- if he reaches a one-year settlement through salary arbitration or if he receives a long-term contract -- he will get a hefty raise in 2008 that will make him a multi-millionaire. He recently built a home near his native St. Louis. He drives a stylish 2007 Escalade. Howard isn't exactly starving.
2. Since his major-league debut in 2004, Howard has amassed 2 years, 145 days of service time, enough to make him arbitration-eligible for the first time. But he's not eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, when he'll be 32. So, unless the Phillies trade him (hard to see that happening), he'll be their first baseman for at least the next four seasons.
Still, the question will come up this month: Should the Phillies give Howard a long-term contract? There's no easy answer. Let's analyze a few pros and cons.
PRO: A long-term deal for Howard may save the Phillies some money in the long-term. Had Chase Utley gone through the arbitration process for three years and hit the free-agent market after the 2009 season, baseball's escalating market likely would've made him even richer than the seven-year, $85 million deal he signed with the Phils last January.
CON: Howard struck out 199 times last season, setting a major-league record, and his batting average dropped to .268 from .313 in 2006. Can he cut the Ks and hike his average in 2008? And if he can't, do the Phils want to make a long-term commitment?
PRO: In his first 1,461 major-league at-bats, Howard has 129 home runs and 353 RBIs. That's more than Albert Pujols (92 home runs, 325 RBIs) or Mark McGwire (103 home runs, 290 RBIs) at this point in their careers.
CON: Howard's 12 errors were second-most among first basemen last season, behind only Prince Fielder. Howard made 14 errors in 2006. Is his future (beyond 2011) as a DH? It'll be up to the Phillies to make that projection, and they may want to see how his defense progresses in 2008.
There's plenty more to this debate, but that's a start. Care to weigh in? Do you think the Phils should lock up Howard long-term now, or should they wait another year? Really, there's no rush.
Fire away.
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Earlier today, the Phillies asked unconditional release waivers on left-hander Matt Smith for the purpose of adding So Taguchi to the 40-man roster. Smith, the only major-league-ready player acquired for Bobby Abreu in July 2006, had Tommy John elbow surgery last season and isn't expected to be ready to pitch until early summer.
6 comments:
I heard Lauber say he was lobbying for Roberson to be traded back in Septmeber.
Posted by freddie : 8:25 AM
Pay him now. That'll be a huge weight off of Howard's shoulders and will allow him to feel appreciated for his stellar efforts. I have confidence that he'll cut down on the strike-outs once he can focus on baseball and baseball only -- he shouldn't have to worry about his future with the organization.
rob...
I think a deal now may keep Howard happy now, but in the future he may feel under payed (kinda like Pujols does now) and I think it gives more incentives for Howard to say in shape and perform well so that he will gain more money through arbitration.
One issue I see with Howard is his age and size. When you look at his comps among other major leaguers, you see Mo Vaughn, Hafner, Cecil Fielder, and Boog Powell. Lots of those players had injury issues as they aged and their value decreased significantly. And Howard is older than the average arb. eligible player generally is. I wouldn't be surprised if Howard mashes the ball for the next 2-3 years with mild injuries like what he experienced last year, but then start to drop off significantly as the injuries become more prevalent.
However, I think that it is in the Phillies best interest to sign him to a contract, but not one which goes for a ridiculous number of years. 5 years 90mil or something like that should be the max. Stretching the deal to 7 years (like Pujols' 7/100mil) would be too much and you'd risk holding on to a player for far past his prime and at more than his worth.
This just in:
He's also the coverboy for MLB 08 The Show for PS3 PS2 and PSP
Last year's coverboy: David Wright.
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