Charlie Manuel likes to say that a home run is just a well-hit fly ball that lands on the other side of the fence. I suppose that's one way of looking at it. But, for the Phillies this season, home runs have been their primary way of scoring. And while that's fine (runs count the same no matter how they're scored), there's some danger in being too dependent on home runs.Last week, in a story that ran in early editions of the 50-center while the Phils were playing in Arizona, I broke down what percentage of the Phillies' runs have been produced by homers. Yesterday, I heard from Dave Smith, a University of Delaware professor, baseball historian and founder of Retrosheet.org, the wonderful statistical database that provides so much help to baseball scribes like me. Dave crunched the numbers on home-run dependency in 2008, and here's what he came up with.
Not including last night's games (none of the Phillies' five runs came via homers last night), the Phillies ranked second in the majors in percentage of runs scored via homers (42.2 percent). Yet they were tied for only ninth in the majors in total runs (185). By comparison, the Cubs ranked only 16th with 30.5 percent of their runs coming via homers. But they were first overall in the majors in total runs scored (223).
Translation: Chicks may dig the long ball, but ultimately, teams that manufacture runs will score more often than teams that rely on homers.
Here are Dave's raw numbers:
Most runs scored (through Sunday)
1. Cubs -- 2232. Red Sox -- 209
3. D-backs -- 208
4. Rangers -- 192
4. Astros -- 192
6. Marlins -- 188
6. Angels -- 188
8. Athletics -- 187
9. PHILLIES -- 185
9. Pirates -- 185
11. Dodgers -- 184
Highest percentage of runs scored via homers
1. Marlins -- 47.9
2. PHILLIES -- 42.2
3. White Sox -- 40.0
4. Rangers -- 37.0
5. Reds -- 36.5
6. Mariners -- 36.4
7. Rays -- 36.0
8. Braves -- 34.8
9. Angels -- 34.6
10. Padres -- 34.4
As always, thanks, Dave, for the help.
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Kevin Tresolini pinch-hit for me at the Bank last night and wrote about how J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brad Lidge were awesome in last night's 5-4 series-opening win over the Braves. Lidge's scoreless streak ended at 17 innings when Brian McCann's RBI double sailed over center fielder Jayson Werth's head. But between them, Romero, Gordon and Lidge have a 1.92 ERA this season, and that includes Gordon's ninth-inning opening-day meltdown. Pretty darned good, don't you think?
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Speaking of Werth's misplay, if you turned on the game in the ninth inning, you may have been wondering why Werth was in center field and Shane Victorino was in right. They spent the whole game that way, but the switch isn't permanent. Manuel explained that he merely wants to keep Werth in tune with playing center field. Now and then, he also wants to put Victorino's strong arm back in right.
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Two hits last night for Ryan Howard extended his modest hitting streak to five games. But over those five games, there have been many positives, including an opposite-field home run Saturday and a triple Sunday at cavernous AT&T Park.
Now, the Phillies need to get Brett Myers straightened out. He takes the ball tonight against Tom Glavine, and they need Myers to be good. Very good.
More later from the Bank.
3 comments:
I'm not sold on the fact that grinding out runs the old fashioned way translates into more scoring. I'd be willing to bet that in past years, the Phillies have been pretty reliant on the long ball as well. In other words, 1/4 of a season is pretty small sample size.
I was actually about to refer to Tom G's study on his website last year, and here I see has just posted above me! If you look at the Bill James Handbook from the past couple of years, he gives a full analysis of manufacturing runs, various ways of measuring them, and if you look through the teams, it is clear that the teams that score most are generally not the ones manufacturing the most runs.
Sal Baxamusa of The Hardball Times did a study on run distribution and found a small correlation between a team hitting homeruns more often and them being less prone to get shutout, holding constant the general run scoring ability of the team.
Tom G.: You're right, one quarter of one season is a tiny sample size. And the Phillies' early-season reliance on the home run has had a lot to do with their speed (Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino) being injured and out of the lineup for large portions of April. That said, Charlie Manuel and several players I spoke to last week in Arizona cautioned that living and dying by the long ball can be troublesome. I think the Phillies' offense is good enough to score in many ways, from hitting doubles and homers to stealing bases and grinding out runs.
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