Sept. 23 -- MAGIC NUMBERS: 3 & 4

BY SCOTT LAUBER

On Sept. 11, when the Phillies opened a four-game series against the Brewers at the Bank, they were 79-67, 3-1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East and four off the Brew Crew's pace in the wild-card standings. They had just lost two of three games at home against the Marlins, and Baseball Prospectus gave them only a 16.53 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Things weren't looking good.

Two weeks later, the outlook is considerably different.

The Phils swept a four-game series against the Brewers, the start of a stretch in which they've won 10 of 11 games. They are 89-68, 2-1/2 games ahead of the Mets in the NL East and 3-1/2 ahead of the Brew Crew in the wild-card race. Their magic number for clinching a playoff berth is down to 3, and with five games remaining, they need only a combination of wins and/or Mets losses totaling 4 to clinch the NL East title. Both achievements appear to be inevitable. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 99.63 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 95.52 percent chance to win the division.

"I don't scoreboard-watch because we control our own destiny," reliever Scott Eyre said after last night's 6-2 victory over the Braves, striking a tone that was less arrogant than it was realistic. "I don't think anybody realizes how much fun this could be."

Judging by the towel-waving crowd last night, I think everyone is starting to get that feeling. During this 10-1 stretch, the Phillies are batting .279 as a team and have averaged six runs per game. Their team ERA is 3.67 and opponents have batted .225 against them.

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Greg Golson, a baseball player with the speed of a track star, has never ran in a race he couldn't win. Last night, Golson, a September call-up after spending the season at Class AA Reading, was introduced to the playoff race. And with his blazing speed, he scored the go-ahead run in the eighth inning. "I just heard [first-base coach] Davey [Lopes] yelling, 'Go, Go, Go,'" Golson said after going from first to third on an errant pick-off throw by Braves reliever Jeff Bennett. "It was amazing. No knock on Reading, but it's a little louder here."

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Last month, after the Phillies learned that the damaged ligament in Tom Gordon's right elbow was season-ending, they wondered who would pitch the eighth inning. The answer: Ryan Madson. He has allowed one unearned run in his last 12-2/3 innings, cementing the job as the setup man. And, with closer Brad Lidge unavailable last night after back-to-back stressful outings in Florida, Madson was Charlie Manuel's choice to pitch the ninth.

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Ryan Howard is getting NL MVP buzz, but Martin Frank wonders if he's even the Phillies' MVP. After last night's game, Martin gives the nod to Lidge -- and, really, the entire bullpen. And, when you consider that the Phillies are 76-0 when leading after eight innings, it's difficult to argue.