Sept. 27 -- TIME TO CLINCH?

BY SCOTT LAUBER

So, somewhere near the Phillies' clubhouse, champagne is chilling.

Is today the day the Phils clinch the NL East?

It could happen. Quite easily, actually. If Jamie Moyer pitches the Phillies to a victory, they'll clinch. If Johan Santana, starting on short rest, can't rescue the Mets at Shea Stadium, they'll clinch. The magic number is one, and Baseball Prospectus lists the Phillies' odds of winning the division at 97.66 percent. Somehow, after last night's 8-4 win over the Nationals, it seems even more inevitable than that.

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Beating the Nats to clinch the division? Sounds vaguely familiar. Moyer has been here, done this. Meanwhile, The Johan is the Mets' best hope to avoid a second straight September fold. And, in Milwaukee, reliever Seth McClung says, "It's good to be a Brewer." Amazing, isn't it, how five straight wins changes your entire outlook? And the Brewers can wrap up the wild card with a victory today and a Mets loss.

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How much is Ryan Howard worth? Once again, that's going to be a big question in the offseason, and Martin Frank explored it in The Paper today. Howard's power numbers are positively historic. Simply put, nobody produces runs like the Big Man. But he's also flirting with 200 strikeouts and 20 errors (for a first baseman!), and for all of his September success, his on-base (.338) and slugging percentages (.544) are the lowest in any full season of his career.

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Other projections, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus:
Phillies win the division, Brewers win the wild card -- 61 percent
Phillies win the division, Mets and Brewers tie for the wild card -- 27 percent
Phillies win the division, Mets win the wild card -- 8 percent
Phillies, Mets, and Brewers all finish in a tie -- 2 percent

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Before today's game, the local chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America will dole out our annual awards. The winners: Brad Lidge (Mike Schmidt MVP), Cole Hamels (Steve Carlton Pitcher of the Year), Greg Dobbs (Tug McGraw Good Guy), Jamie Moyer (Dallas Green Special Achievement).

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Since the Phillies can clinch today, we'll try to do some live blogging during the game. So, please keep it here throughout the afternoon. Meanwhile, I'm going to go searching for some birthday cake. You only turn 32 once, right?