Until pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater on Feb. 15, most of what you'll hear about the Phillies will center around possible long-term contracts for the team's two stars: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.Mark this down: Utley might get one. Howard won't. At least not this winter.
They both should.
I understand the points made by assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. in Friday's News Journal about the importance of having payroll flexibility and not being bogged down by too many long-term deals. But if Utley and Howard truly are the cornerstone pieces of this franchise's future, they should be signed to long-term deals. Otherwise, there's only doubt about the Phillies' commitment to both players.
Look, clearly the Phillies got burned when they gave Pat Burrell a six-year pact before the 2003 season. But it's hard to believe Utley or Howard will turn into the next Burrell. Supposedly, money isn't an obstacle. After all, they were willing to give Alfonso Soriano $17 million per year (just not for eight years). So, the only question is, how many years do you want to commit to Utley and Howard.If Utley doesn't get a long-term contract, he's arbitration-eligible, so he'll get a big raise for 2007 (at least $3.5 million, and probably more). Howard isn't due for arbitration until after the 2007 season. At the very least, the Phillies should make a good-faith offer to the NL MVP. Something along the lines of the $900,000 deal the Cardinals gave Albert Pujols before his first arbitration-eligible year. It would send a message that the Phillies intend to get serious about a long-term contract for Howard after they deal with Utley.
Your thoughts?
7 comments:
Imagine this scenario:
You're Ryan Howard. You've followed your rookie-of-the-year award winning first season up by belting out 58 home runs and winning the MVP award in your second. You are the toast of Philadelphia, everyone wants to buy a ticket to come watch you play ball. You've managed to make all fans forget the name Thome, and you've done more to put your team on Sportscenter than any other Phillie has in quite some time, thus introducing the team to markets nationwide.
You then turn on the television to see Amaro Jr. say that you are "not a priority".
Now, Before everyone gets technical about what Amaro was talking about, note that I KNOW the context of his quote. I know he was talking age/arbitration eligibility and contract length. But you cannot, as a managment representative, collectively say that about a man who has done SO much for a team in SO little time.
You can't give him the sense of 'yeah, here's a little xmas bonus, we'll worry about you when your contract matters more than it does right now'. How loyal is Howard supposed to remain after hearing this? Why did he even change agents? And this is just what Howard is hearing. We're weeks away from spring ball, and the delay in any approach still lingers like the elephant in the room.
It's a sad commentary on the Phillies. I was born in 77, years after integration and the 64 collapse, but I know enough about this organization to know that management has never been popular with the players, for one reason or another. Just ask Schilling and Rolen.
It'd be an entirely seperate blog in and of itself should we dissect the integration of the black athlete into the Phillies organization, why they were the last team to do so, and how Howard can now possibly be the link between the team and the African-American fan base.
Howard deserves a raise. A substantial one. And soon. So does Utley. These men are franchise players, and need to be recognized and viewed by managment the same way the fans do.
Originally, I thought the Phils should wait on long-term deals for Howard and Utley. After all, why get back into the trap you just escaped from?
But given the fact that the Phillies have some offseason money still on the table, so to speak, given the types of contracts other teams handed out this offseason, and given the apparent make-up of these two, I like the idea of giving them long term contracts.
Perhaps in the case of Howard, you give him a million this year with significant raises for four or five years after this year.
But keep in mind, we only see what the Phillies are telling us. We don't know what types of informal conversations the team and the players have had already.
In other words, actions do speak louder than words, but words can carry some weight too.
There's also the possibility that Utley and Howard DON'T WANT long-term contracts right now. Consider that Utley can make millions in arbitration, which would take him to free agency. Howard can, too, once he's arbitration eligible. And with marginal players like Gary Matthews Jr. getting $10 million a year, Utley and Howard can certainly start cashing in. If they sign long-term deal with the Phillies now, they would lose a lot of that leverage, and it might even take them through their first years of free agency.
Certainly it would make sense for the Phillies to sign them to long-term deals now, and in the case of Howard, what they do this year will have no bearing on the future if they start paying him once he gets to arbitration. Remember, it takes two sides to sign that contract.
Just a thought.
Great point, Martin.
We've looked at this entirely from the Phillies' standpoint. As a player, here's the dilemma: Do you want the security of a guaranteed long-term contract, or do you want to make more money by just going year-to-year through arbitration before potentially cashing in big in free agency?
I covered David Wright and Jose Reyes in the minors, and when the Mets signed them last summer, I talked to both about it. Wright, in particular, said it was a difficult decision. He knows that, if his production remains the same or increases and if the market continues to boom, he could've made much more down the road. But, ultimately, he likes New York, wants to play for the Mets for a long time, and opted for the security of the guaranteed contract. And, let's face it: $55 million over the next six years is a pretty good payday. Why get greedy?
But it's entirely possible Utley and/or Howard don't feel that way. If Albert Pujols got a seven-year, $100 million contract in 2004, how much money could Howard make on the open market if he hits 50-plus homers in each of the next four seasons.
Tom - You bring up the paradox I think managemnet finds themselves in. Do we dole out a huge contract after a huge season a-la Pat Burrell and run the risk of getting burnt, or do we wait it out until arbitration forces the issue?
I have no idea how to answer that question.
But I can say - without any statistical evidence or proof - that I really don't think that Utley or Howard are the next Burrell. Theyve shown they can do it back to back seasons, and thats good enough for me. So I agree, lets give them the long terms they deserve.
But Martin raises a fantastic point, one that I never considered. Maybe they are patient enough to wait it out.
The Matthews contract is a good example too, (b/c i think it's way too much for his numbers) but that doesn't necessarily mean next years FA's will seek and get more. A-Rod signed that huge deal w/ Texas a few years back, and signings regressed afterwards in following seasons. Just because someone overpaid for Gary Matthews doesnt mean theyll overpay for, say, Aaron Rowand next year.
But they might, and thus Martin is correct.
Again, my arguement is with management. Ryan will def. get his, hopefully with the Phils. But just TELL us that. Or something LIKE that. Not that our superstar isn's a priority.
Thanks for the kind words. If that's the way Utley and Howard are going, they're taking a gamble. If they get hurt, or their production suffers, they could lose a lot of money. But I just think with the way salaries have gone up the past few years, and will likely continue to go up, they can cash in big-time if they keep playing well.
Scott, you mentioned Wright and Reyes with the Mets, and that's a great point, $55 million over 6 years isn't chump-change and it guarantees security even if Wright turns into Burrell. If he doesn't, the Mets get a relative bargain. The same is true of Reyes. I'm sure the Phillies will gladly pay that kind of money for Utley and Howard, if they can.
As for the Gary Matthews Jr. situation, I think it's a sign of things to come. Vernon Wells got $126 million and his numbers aren't that much better than Utley's. Carlos Lee got $100 million, and he's not the power hitter Howard is. Barry Zito, for crying out loud, is getting $19 million a year. If salaries keep going up like that, Howard could possibly top A-Rod and get $25 million a year when he's a free agent.
I guess the question for Howard and Utley becomes, how much is enough? And what does it mean with Howard changing agents?
Now if only we could get this kind of dialog on the Sixers' blog. Anyone?
How much money is enough? Sounds like a good story idea, Martin.
Personally, if someone was willing to pay me $55 million over the next six years, I'd do what David Wright did: Take it before they change their mind -- or worse, before I get injured. But, if you're Ryan Howard, it's difficult to take the money now when you see the contracts that Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Vernon Wells and Gary Matthews Jr. just got as free agents. I'm sure some part of Howard is saying, "I'm better than those guys. Eventually, I can make $200 million."
Maybe the question should be, how outrageous will these contracts get before owners say, enough is enough?
Howard and Utley probably will be part of the Phillies' winter tour. When I see them, I'll try to gauge their mindset on the long-term contract issue. I'm sure neither will admit they want to test the market, but they may offer a glimpse into how they're thinking.
I'm not sure what to make of Howard changing agents. Ryan won't talk about it, so I don't know what his beef was with Larry Reynolds. Leon Rose, who everybody is saying Howard wants to hire, is an NBA agent who represents Allen Iverson. I just hope Ryan doesn't start saying, "We're taking about batting practice," and refuse to take a few swings in the cage before games.
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