Here's a safe bet: The Phillies and Ryan Howard will reach a settlement on a 2007 contract by Friday.Take that to the bank.
The only question is how much money Howard will be taking to the bank. His rate of success -- 82 home runs and 217 RBIs in 266 games over only 1 year and 145 days of major-league service time -- is nearly unprecedented, so there's little basis to determine his rate of compensation. Based on his service time, Howard isn't eligible for salary arbitration until at least after this season. He isn't eligible for free agency until 2011. So, at this time, there's absolutely no need for the Phillies to lavish him with a multi-year contract. In fact, doing so would alter baseball's traditional pay scale and set a dangerous precedent. Even the great Albert Pujols had to wait until he was arbitration-eligible to get a long-term deal from the St. Louis Cardinals. That's just how the system works.
Casey Close, Howard's new agent, is well-aware of that. Close and GM Pat Gillick began discussing Howard's 2007 contract two weeks ago and likely will reach an agreement by Friday. If they don't, the Phillies will be able to stop negotiations and determine Howard's salary on their own. It's doubtful they'll allow their talks with Close to reach that point.
Howard made $355,000 last season, and he's expected to receive a major raise. The record salary for a player with as little experience as Howard was a $690,000 deal that the Cubs gave to Kerry Wood after his rookie season. Pujols made $900,000 in 2003, one year before he was eligible for salary arbitration. Odds are, Howard will receive something in the $1 million to $1.5 million range before really cashing in before next season.
1 comment:
Scott, thanks for a clear explanation that I hope everyone reads and understands. I'm very tired of all the "SIGN HOWARD NOW" posts showing up on all the Phillies baseball sites.
You're doing a great job down there. Keep up the great work!
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