So, I hear from plenty of people who are begging the Phillies to spend, spend, spend on Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling, Alex Rodriguez and at least a dozen other free agents. And while that's a perfectly rational desire for any self-respecting, ticket-buying fan, you should know there's a considerable downside to a free-agent shopping spree.A few days ago, MLB released the Elias rankings, a statistical formula agreed upon by players and owners to determine compensation for the loss of free agents. Think of this as a grading system. Players who rank in the top 20 percent at their position are classified as Type A free agents. Players in the 21st through 40th percentile are Type B. Anyone beyond 40 percent is Type C. For losing a Type A free agent, a team gets a first-round draft pick from the signing team, plus a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds. For a Type B, a team gets a "sandwich" pick. There's no compensation for losing a Type C.
With me so far? OK. Here's where it gets complicated.
Compensation is granted only if a free agent is signed before Dec. 1, the deadline for offering arbitration, or if the team elects to offer its free agent salary arbitration. Word out of Boston is the Sox aren't likely to offer Schilling arbitration because they're unwilling to pay him in 2008 more than the $13 million he made in 2007. So, the Phillies or any other interested team likely won't sign Schilling until after Dec. 1, thereby avoiding forfeiting draft picks to the Sox. But the Brewers almost certainly will offer arbitration to Francisco Cordero, so regardless of which team signs the All-Star closer, Milwaukee will receive compensation.
Still with me?
OK, as far as the Phillies' free agents are concerned, Tadahito Iguchi and Aaron Rowand are Type A (interestingly, Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron are only Type B). Freddy Garcia is Type B. Everyone else -- J.C. Romero, Kyle Lohse, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Jon Lieber, Rod Barajas and Abraham Nunez -- are Type C. Somewhat surprising that Romero and Lohse are Type C, but the Elias rankings often are every bit as non-sensical as the BCS rankings. (Boston College is No. 2? Seriously? I digress...)
Of the free agents that may/should draw the Phils' interest, Schilling, Cordero, Rivera, Mike Lowell and even Scott Linebrink are Type A (first-round and sandwich pick compensation). Carlos Silva and Jeremy Affeldt are Type C (no compensation).
Sufficiently confused? Sorry about that. Wondering about a specific free agent? Just ask me. I've got the full list.
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Bracing for his free-agent negotiation, Silva has switched agents, hiring Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro and ditching Peter Greenberg. It should be noted that Praver and Shapiro brokered Carlos Zambrano's five-year, $91.5 million extension during the season.*
Another sign that the Sox won't re-sign Schilling: they have picked up their option on Tim Wakefield's contract. That leaves Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Wakefield in the rotation. No room for Schill there.
2 comments:
Whoever signs Iguchi doesn't have to give up draft picks since he only has 3 years of service time. He had it specifically written into his contract that he didn't have to wait 6 years to become a free agent so no compensation on Iguchi even though he is a type A. There's a little more to confuse everyone.
So, we can definitely sign one type A if we don't re-sign Rowand. If we re-sign Rowand the only type-A I'm willing to give up a draft pick for would be Mariano Rivera. I'd have to think long and hard about Lowell because there will be other options via trade for a 3rd basemen. This is the one wrinkle in free agency most fans don't think about but plays a major role in free agency.
Ed S.: You're right about Iguchi (forgot to mention that in my post). Doubtful the Phils would've offered him salary arbitration anyway.
And yes, the compensation factor does play a major role in how GMs approach free agency. The Phils made some bad free-agent decisions in the past, and it has cost them draft picks. Looking for reasons why the Phils have few major-league-ready prospects in their farm system? Count the number of first- through fifth-round draft picks they've had over the past five seasons. Going into the June '07 draft, it was fewer than any team in baseball.
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