So, there probably won't be much activity on The Blog for a few days, what with Thanksgiving and all. In case turkey and football don't do the trick, I have something else to keep you sated over the holiday weekend: Let's examine the Phillies' payroll.There are doubters out there (you know who you are) who believe the Phillies have more than $10-12 million left to spend this winter. But if ownership insists on a $105 million payroll, there really isn't much wiggle room for Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro Jr. Here's how it breaks down:
Including the $6 million they owe Jim Thome, the Phils have about $68.5 million committed to nine players: Pat Burrell ($14 million), Brett Myers ($8.5 million), Jimmy Rollins ($8 million), Adam Eaton ($7.6 million), Chase Utley ($7.5 million), Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million), Tom Gordon ($5.5 million), J.C. Romero ($3.7 million), and Wes Helms ($2.1 million).
They also have at least five players eligible for salary arbitration: Ryan Howard, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth and Eric Bruntlett. Howard, who made $900,000 last season, may fetch about $7 million. Lidge's salary also may reach $7 million after he made $5.3 million last season. Madson ($1.1 million), Werth ($850,000) and Bruntlett ($525,000) also will get raises, and Julio Mateo ($1 million) is arbitration-eligible if the Phils choose to keep him. That could push the payroll close to $90 million.
Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, Greg Dobbs, Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin don't have enough service time to qualify for arbitration, but they will receive modest increases that will leave the payroll at approximately $95 million. So, you don't have to be a mathematician to figure they have about $10 million to spend before they reach $105 million.
So, how exactly were the Phillies able to even consider a lucrative offer for Mike Lowell? Well, it's possible they structured the offer such that Lowell would've made most of his money in 2009 and beyond, after Burrell, Gordon and others are eligible for free agency. With Lowell back in Boston, the Phillies could make a similar backloaded offer to Aaron Rowand. But they keep saying pitching is their No. 1 priority, and they have made offers to Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, former Phils lefty Randy Wolf and other available arms.
Assuming Gillick and Amaro don't receive a payroll bump, how should they spend the remaining cash?
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
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*Quick Turkey Day update: Looks like Torii Hunter has agreed to a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels, pending a routine physical exam. What does this mean for Aaron Rowand? Well, the Hunter deal sets the market for free-agent center fielders and gives Rowand's agent, Craig Landis, a guide for Rowand's negotiations with the Phillies and other teams. If Hunter, who figured to get a more lucrative contract than Rowand, is making $18 million per year, how much is Rowand worth? $14 million? $15 million? More? Doubtful the Phillies will be willing to pay that much. Should they?
6 comments:
Happy Thanksgiving to you, too, Scott.
I'm liking the Randy Wolf rumors... while he's injury-prone, a.when he's healthy, he's good enough b.the rest of the inventory isn't so hot c.he'll be relatively cheap and d.even someone who doesn't rub elbows with the players can tell he's a class act.
If you spend it, they will come.
Happy Thanksgiving, Scott.
I'm not so optimistic with regards to Randy Wolf. His injury history just scares me off.
I'd much rather get Kuroda. But if giving the money to Kuroda or giving it to Rowand is an issue, give the money to Rowand.
It was nice knowing ya Aaron. The only thing this really screws up is getting a first round pick for him because I feel it is almost a guarantee he signs with the White Sox who were going hard after Hunter. Oh well, I guess we're getting a sandwich pick and either a 2nd or 3rd rounder depending on if the Brewers get from the Sox for signing Linebrink away.
Long answer - yes with an if, short answer - no with a but. If the money is spent wisely elsewhere, then I think the team's focus on pitching is a smart one. But if the Phillies take that mony either a) sit on it or b) make a poor decision with it, we'll be regretting the loss of Rowand real fast. He might not be worth such bucks, but who really is worth their contract these days?
Aaron Rowand has not shown enough consistency to be worth the money he is asking for. If Rowand had several years in a row with a batting average near .300 and 25 or more home runs, he may be worth $10 -$12 million a year. However, the team may be just a smart to spend that money elsewhere.
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