BY SCOTT LAUBER
Pardon me, but I'm having flashbacks to June 10, 2007. I was in Kansas City that day, talking to then-assistant GM Mike Arbuckle about which pitcher from the Phillies' farm system -- J.D. Durbin, Zack Segovia, or some unknown kid from double-A named Kyle Kendrick -- would make a spot start the following week in place of injured Freddy Garcia. Yeah, it seems like just yesterday.
Well, here we are.
The Phillies are not in Kansas City, although Arbuckle is. Who knows where Garcia is these days, but Brett Myers is awaiting his appointment with New York hip specialist Dr. Bryan Kelly, who likley will concur with team physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti's diagnosis that the sooner Myers has surgery the faster he'll be ready to resume pitching. And the question facing GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and his inner circle today is which pitcher from the Phillies' farm system -- Carlos Carrasco, Drew Carpenter, Antonio Bastardo, or some well-known kid from triple-A named Kyle Kendrick -- will make a spot start next week in Myers' place.
In an ideal world, the Phillies would stay away from Kendrick, who hasn't made as much progress in developing his secondary pitches as they would like. But this is hardly an ideal situation, and Kendrick does have 21 wins in the big leagues over the past two seasons. If, as Rich Dubee said in spring training, Kendrick was the initial favorite to win the No. 5 starter job, shouldn't he be the favorite to pitch Tuesday night in San Diego?
Then again, Kendrick was passed over two weeks ago when Carpenter spot started in the second game of a doubleheader in Washington. And if Carpenter proved anything, it's that he wasn't quite ready. He allowed five runs and 11 base runners (eight hits, three walks) in only 4-1/3 innings and earned the victory only because the Phillies were playing the lowly Nationals and the game was shortened to six innings because of rain.
Carrasco is the Phillies' top pitching prospect, and there's no question they were hoping he'd be ready to step into a situation like this. But he's 0-6 with a 5.81 ERA at Lehigh Valley, and some insiders say he's close to being surpassed as the top prospect by Bastardo, who has a 1.89 ERA between double-A Reading and Lehigh Valley and pitched seven scoreless innings last night. Bastardo would be in line to pitch Tuesday night and could be a feasible option.
Anyway, we'll try to have some Phillies folks shed some light on all this during the day today. Meantime, please continue to weigh in with your picks: Kendrick, Carpenter, Carrasco or Bastardo? You choose.
***
(Updated, 5:04 p.m.): As I type, Myers is in New York, talking to Dr. Kelly. We're hoping to have an update before the game starts. If the Phillies have decided who will make his start Tuesday night, they aren't saying. One thing we do know: It won't be Chan Ho Park. Even now, with Myers likely headed to the operating table, Manuel believes Park will be more effective in the bullpen than the rotation. Ruben Amaro Jr. said it most likely will be someone from Lehigh Valley (our four candidates fill that description).
For what it's worth, Amaro said the Phillies have no interest in 37-year-old free agent Pedro Martinez.
7 comments:
What happened to Vance Worley, who was on your initial list? Have you heard he's not being considered?
My choice in this order:
Bastardo
Carpenter
Kendrick
Bastardo
Savery
Drabek
Bastardo
Savery
Drabek
Tim: Ruben Amaro Jr. said last night that the pitcher would come from Lehigh Valley. Since Worley is still at Reading, I've eliminated him.
Also, I think we can eliminate Carrasco. He pitched seven innings tonight, which means he'd have to come back on short rest to pitch Tuesday night in San Diego. That's not going to happen.
I would like to see Bastardo. At 24, this is an ideal time to give him a 'shot.'
According to Jayson Stark, Bastardo has been drawing comparisons to Johan Santana.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/186678-antonio-bastardo-the-phils-most-coveted-pitcher-not-named-carrasco?search_query=antonio%20bastardo
IFs: IF he does succeed and IF the Phillies decide to keep him around, would they really want four lefties in the starting rotation? That would be ideal IF they played themselves 162 times, but against teams that feature 3-4 lefties in a lineup, it could end up hurting them. Then again, IF they're effective and win games, it does not matter IF they're pushing off their left or right leg.
My choices from Lehigh Valley, in order:
Bastardo
Bastardo
Bastardo
Kendrick appears to be "just another body" at this point and would likely be as effective as Park was. Carrassco is clearly not ready yet (he has the stuff, but needs to build his confidence back - no way can he be asked to step into that pressure cooker given his current mindframe), and Carpenter did not pass his prior call up test. Lehr and Lopez obviously make no sense, so that leaves only Bastardo.
I would prefer to have a little balance in the rotation as well in terms of righty/lefty, but that's not enough of a quibble to keep your best chance for success (at least on paper) away from a shot when he's needed the most. Obviously there is no guarantee of success; however, given his age and recent track record, he absolutely deserves a chance to help this team.
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