BY SCOTT LAUBERGood morning, all. We're back after a long, and relaxing, holiday weekend. But it's time to get back to business, especially since the hot stove figures to get a bit warmer this week. Without further ado, then, a few things to keep an eye on this week and beyond:
1. By midnight tonight, teams must decide whether to offer binding arbitration to their free agents. Here's how it works: If a Type A free agent (Jamie Moyer or Pat Burrell) is offered arbitration and signs with another team, his former team receives two compensatory draft picks, including the first-rounder of the team that signs him. For example, the Yankees offered arbitration to Tom Gordon in 2005. He signed with the Phillies, and with their compensatory picks, the Yankees drafted Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain in 2006.
Great, right?
Well, it isn't that simple. If a free agent accepts arbitration before the Dec. 7 deadline, he's suddenly under contract for 2009 at a slightly higher salary than in 2008. So, arbitration is tantamount to a one-year contract offer, and a team must be willing to risk that the player who is unhappy with the interest he has generated on the open market actually will forego free agency to return for one year.
Now you see why it behooves a GM to have a degree from Stanford.
But Ruben Amaro Jr.'s decisions really aren't tough. I think, from people I've talked to, that the Phils wouldn't mind having Moyer or Burrell back for one more season. In fact, Moyer's desire for a multiyear contract, at age 46, is one of the things that has prolonged his negotiations with the Phillies. It seems the Phils wouldn't mind keeping Burrell, but only on their terms, which appear to be no more than a two-year contract. So, my guess (strictly a guess) is that the Phils will offer arbitration to both Moyer and Burrell.
2. Once the arbitration deadline passes, the free-agent market will become more active. Most teams, as you might imagine, wait until after the arbitration deadline before making offers to free agents. Pretend you're Athletics GM Billy Beane. If, just for the sake of conversation, you're interested in Burrell, why would you engage in serious contract talks until you know if the Phillies offer him arbitration? If they do, you may not be willing to forfeit a first-round pick. If they don't, your interest in Burrell may increase. For the Phillies, keep an eye on some of the Type A free-agent relievers (Juan Cruz, Russ Springer, Doug Brocail). If they aren't offered arbitration, the Phillies may pursue them more aggressively.
3. Spent a few days at my parents' house in Jersey during the holiday weekend, so I read plenty about the Yankees and Mets in the New York papers. The Mets, according to reports, are interested in signing a free-agent closer (Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes), but they also have talked with the Rockies about trading for Huston Street. It seems the Mets believe they need two high-quality relievers, one to pitch the eighth inning and one to pitch the ninth.
4. Other key dates to circle on your calendar:
Dec. 7: Deadline for free agents to accept arbitration.
Dec. 8-11: Winter meetings in Las Vegas (we'll be there)
Dec. 11: Rule 5 draft
Dec. 12: Deadline to tender contracts for 2009 (the Phillies were able to acquire Jayson Werth in 2005 and Chad Durbin last year only because their previous teams didn't tender contracts to them.)
I'll have more throughout the day/week, but for now, I'd like to hear from you. Should the Phils offer arbitration to Burrell, even if it means that he may actually accept?
4 comments:
I think you made a fair point about arbitration being win-win because they want both players back, and 1 year deals could be beneficial in both cases.
Even if Burrell is reupped at a higher pay, I think that we need a legitimate power threat because another run seems as likely as as it has in the past twenty years, and I'm not convinced that any of the options out there at the moment can replicate a standard Pat Burrell season.
What other out field right handed bat is out there on the FA market? I think they need to keep him.
I think you hit the nail on the head and the team will offer arbitration to both players. Ideally, if Pat signed elsewhere, we'd like him to go to a team without a protected pick. Angels seem like a likely destination (presuming they sgn C.C., but not Tex). It would also not surprise me to see both New York teams with an interest in Burrell. I think the Phils need to find away trade for Utley's college buddy Garrett Atkins and insert him in the outfield (until Feliz is gone and then move him to third).
"I think you hit the nail on the head and the team will offer arbitration to both players"
not too bright for a lawyer, are ya? stick with your day job there Mr ESQ
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