Friday, December 12, 2008

Dec. 12 -- IBANEZ VS. BURRELL

BY SCOTT LAUBER

So, the first thing I've noticed about the Raul Ibanez signing is that everyone seems to have a different opinion. Some folks believe Ibanez will be a suitable replacement for Pat Burrell, maybe even an upgrade. Others wonder how in the name of Jamie Moyer the Phillies could give a three-year contract to a guy who will be 37 in June.

My take: The Phillies have discussed getting younger and more athletic in left field. Ibanez is older and not much faster than/defensively superior to Burrell. But he is a more consistent hitter. It would help, certainly, if he batted right-handed. Although he hit .305 against left-handed pitchers last season, that appears to have been an anomaly. He's only a .268 career hitter against lefties, compared to .293 against righties. That said, the Mariners never took him out of the lineup against tough lefties, so there's no indication that Charlie Manuel will have to either. Besides, the Mets' twin closers (Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz) are both right-handed anyway. And, regardless of which side of the plate he hits from, Ibanez figures to be more productive than a righty-lefty platoon involving Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins and someone like Juan Rivera.

Regarding the three-year contract: In Vegas, multiple sources told me Burrell is looking for a three-year deal, too. Burrell, who routinely was lifted for a late-inning defensive replacement and may be best suited as a DH, made $14 million in 2008. So, spending $10 million per year for Ibanez actually is more affordable, especially when you have 10 arbitration-eligible players fixing to raise the payroll by a cumulative $20-30 million. Thus far, Ibanez actually is getting better with age. It wasn't until he turned 30 that he became an everyday player for the Royals, and over the past three years, only one AL outfielder (Magglio Ordonez) had more RBIs than Ibanez's 338. From what I hear, his health is impeccable. He played 162 games for the Mariners last season and has missed only 16 games over the past four years, thanks in part to a rigorous offseason conditioning program near his Miami-area home. Based on his track record, you won't have to worry about Ibanez's durability.

And while Burrell generally was well-liked by his teammates, anyone who has ever heard Dobbs rave about Ibanez's character and professionalism knows how highly he's regarded in the clubhouse. Ibanez comes with the endorsements of Pat Gillick and new assistant GM Benny Looper, both of whom have histories with him from their time in Seattle.

But the best thing about Ibanez: He kills the Mets. OK, it's a small sample size, but Ibanez is 13-for-37 (.351) with two homers in nine career games against the Mets. Keep that up, and he'll fit in just fine here.

So, do I like the Ibanez deal? Sure. If nothing else, it beats the alternatives.

***

A Burrell-Ibanez tale of the tape:

IBANEZ
Age: 36
2008 stats: .293, 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R, 64 BB, 110 K, .479 SLG, .358 OBP
Career stats (13 seasons): .286, 182 HR, 794 RBI, 695 R, 446 BB, 787 K, .472 SLG, .346 OBP
Last four seasons (average): .288, 97 HR, 427 RBI, 360 R, 253 BB, 421 K, .478 SLG, .354 OBP

BURRELL
Age: 32
2008 stats: .250, 33 HR, 86 RBI, 74 R, 102 BB, 136 K, .507 SLG, .367 OBP
Career stats (9 seasons): .257, 251 HR, 827 RBI, 655 R, 785 BB, 1,273 K, .485 SLG, .367 OBP
Last four seasons: .262, 124 HR, 395 RBI, 309 R, 413 BB, 547 K, .504 SLG, .386 OBP


***
Everybody hear about the five-year, $82 million contract that A.J. Burnett is about to sign with the Yankees? So, Derek Lowe is the best remaining free-agent pitcher on the market, and with the Yankees locking up both Burnett and CC Sabathia, plenty of pitching-needy teams will be lining up to give Lowe the five-year, $80 million contract that he's seeking.

Is there any doubt, then, that the Phillies' best bet is re-signing Jamie Moyer?

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think this was a really poor decision, on a number of fronts.

1. Ibanez may be "getting better", but what he gains in batting average he loses in raw power to guys like Burrell and Dunn. He has decent peripheral numbers (walks) and is durable, but his list of comparables (which you can find at baseball-reference) doesn't paint a pretty picture. Dmitri Young, Richie Zisk, Carl Everett, Brian Jordan, and Jose Guillen are his 5 most comparable players overall, and his most comparable through Age 36 list is even less impressive. Not a great sign considering the 3/30 commitment.

2. Ibanez is a terrible defender. Using John Dewan's +/- system, in my opinion the best defensive analysis system available, Ibanez was 2 players better than Pat Burrell in 2008. He may look more athletic, but he's a butcher in the field, and unless Manuel deploys General Bruntlett, or even Geoff Jenkins, his defense could hurt us just as much as Manuel feared Burrell's would last year.

3. He costs a first round draft pick. I've seen people explain this away by saying "yeah, but we were picking 28th, so its almost a 2nd rounder", but this is faulty logic at best. Now, because we didn't offer arbitration to Moyer or Burrell, we won't receive any supplemental round picks, and our first pick is likely to come in the late 60's or early 70's. The 2008 draft was one of the best Phillies drafts in recent memory, but with fewer picks, will they repeat that success? Will they take the $1.3M or so required for the #28 slot and spread it out amongst their later picks? Adam Dunn, a more valuable hitter (save the strikeouts argument), was not offered arbitration and would not have required giving up our 1st round pick. That alone makes him more valuable to the Phillies than Ibanez.

4. Ibanez performance against LHP in 2008 was a fluke, plain and simple. He posted a .351 BABIP against lefties in 2008, a number which will surely regress back to the mean in 2009. In 2007 and 2006 he posted OB%/SLG lines of .294/.356 and .301/.362 v LHP. Expecting him to repeat his 2008 numbers vs lefties seems optimistic at best.

hankA said...

Well on the postive side he has a .353 lifetime avg against Santana and a .318 against F-Rod.But I do agree on some of the negatives, especially losing a 1st rd pick. One question on his defense, with Seattle being a larger ballpark, isn't there more field to cover, so moving to Citizens Park should help and therefore improve his defensive ratings?

Anonymous said...

Phillies needed to produce with Runners In Scoring Position.

Year - Player - RISP/RISP-2out average

2008 - Raul .327/.324
2008 - Pat .234/.183

2007 - Raul .328/.324
2007 - Pat .258/.255

2006 - Raul .337/.377
2006 - Pat .222/.167

2005 - Raul .298/.279
2005 - Pat .295/.291