Dec. 8 -- MORE ON MOYER

BY SCOTT LAUBER

LAS VEGAS -- About to take one final lap through the lobby, but I wanted to tie a bow on Day 1 of the winter meetings:

Much of what the Phillies do here, obviously, depends on Jamie Moyer. If they re-sign him, they can focus their attention on the bullpen, left field, and most importantly, those 10 arbitration-eligible players who figure to receive a cumulative raise totaling at least $20 million. If they don't, suddenly they have to find another starting pitcher, and that won't be easy because Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett, the top free agents after CC Sabathia, are going to command money and years that the Phillies simply can't commit.

Everybody thought the Moyer negotiations would be a slam dunk. We shouldn't have. First of all, Moyer had a surprisingly strong season, winning 16 games, posting a 3.71 ERA and making 33 starts, all at age 45. Second, he enlisted an agent (Jim Bronner) to handle these negotiations, unlike 2006 when he brokered a contract extension by himself. Bronner isn't going to let the Phillies low-ball Moyer, and the Phillies aren't going overpay for a pitcher who, they truly believe, would rather stay in Philly than go anywhere else.

All of that, coupled with Moyer's complex 2008 salary structure (detailed in the post below), has made this a tricky negotiation. Moyer wants a multiyear deal worth more than the annual $7 million that he took home in 2008 after incentive bonuses. The Phillies don't believe his value is $7 million.

So, if not Moyer, then who? The Phils could make a trade, and while they may have kicked the tires on Jake Peavy or a potential three-way deal involving Peavy, don't get your hopes up. Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million 2010, $16 million in 2011, $17 million in 2012 and $22 million in 2013. Hard to imagine the Phils taking on that kind of salary, especially when they have to deal with a possible long-term contract for Cole Hamels. Also hard to imagine them giving up a bunch of prospects (Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ, etc.) in a deal that would send Peavy elsewhere. Free-agent-wise, I think Lowe remains a long shot, but the Phils could turn to a third-tier free agent, like Randy Wolf, who went 12-12 with a 4.30 ERA last season for San Diego and Houston. When I asked Ruben Amaro Jr. about Wolf, he didn't rule out the possibility.

But they won't have to worry about any of that if only they can find common ground with Moyer.

(Photo: Getty Images)