Trailing 2-0 and heading into the eighth inning last night, Charlie Manuel (or should we call him "Kreskin"?) said he thought the Phillies would win. That feeling overcame Aaron Rowand after Jimmy Rollins opened the eighth with a solo homer.Sure enough, the Phillies did, thanks to Rowand's 40-foot bloop and Ryan Howard's nearly 400-foot blast.
Big win?
Is the sky blue?
But, as I outlined in Monday's entry to The Blog, it won't mean anything unless the Phillies win at least one of the next two games. A split with the Mets does them no good. In fact, it all but assures they won't win the NL East. Truthfully, that won't be easy even if they win three of four this week. Let's say the Phillies win tonight and lose tomorrow, or lose tonight and win tomorrow. They'll be 70-63, and the Mets will be 74-59. With 29 games left, the Mets could go 15-14 and the Phillies would have to go 19-10 just to tie them. Should the Phillies lose tonight and tomorrow, a 15-14 finish by the Mets would force the Phillies to to 21-8 to tie them.
You get the picture.
So, clearly, the Phillies need more of last night's magic to finish out this series. That, and they need a better start tonight from Jamie Moyer, who has allowed 13 runs and lasted only 8-2/3 innings over his last two starts.
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Speaking of which, let's talk about the Phillies' rotation. When the season started, they had six starters for five spots, and the odd-man out was Jon Lieber. Of those starters, Freddy Garcia (shoulder) and Lieber (foot) are out for the season. Adam Eaton (shoulder) just came off the DL and pitched well last night (two earned runs, 5-2/3 innings). Cole Hamels (elbow) is slated to start Sunday in Florida. Brett Myers, of course, is now the closer.
But, once Hamels returns, the Phillies again will find themselves with six starters for five spots: Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Lohse, J.D. Durbin.
Who should stay? Who should go?
Here's the breakdown:
-Hamels (14-5, 3.50 ERA): The ace. If he's healthy, he pitches.
-Kendrick (7-3, 3.89): The surprise. He pitches until he falters.
-Lohse (1-0, 3.95 w/Phils): The import. They got him at the trade deadline for a reason.
-Moyer (11-10, 5.16): The veteran. He needs to pitch better. Odds are, he will.
-Durbin (6-3, 4.07): The rookie. As a starter, he's 5-2 with a 4.19. Not bad.
-Eaton (9-8, 6.23): The $24.5 Million Man. Did he turn a corner last night?
Martin Frank says the Phillies need to do something bold, forget about money or long-term contracts and go with whoever is pitching the best. Right now, that's Hamels, Kendrick, Lohse, Moyer and Durbin.
What do you think?
4 comments:
Durbin should stick. He may be the latest reclamation project in Philly (Paul Byrd, Robert Person, Curt Schilling).
You fail to give the scenario if the Phillies sweep the Mets. Frankly, I'm not sure the Mets can play .500 ball the rest of the way. They really aren't that good.
Scott - I hardly ever do this when I read your blog, but I have to disagree on one thing. You think Moyer is one of the better pitchers right now? I disagree. Depending on his start tonight (if he has a start like his last 2 or 3) he would be the one to go. If not, it would be Eaton.
I was watching Daily News Live yesterday afternoon and saw the interview with Amaro. He told reporters that they're going with the most effective starting rotation, regardless of age, veteran presence, or contract status.
He said yesterday on DNL that Durbin is a lock in the rotation right now, and I assume that Hamels, Kendrick, and Lohse are locks as well. That leaves Eaton and Moyer to battle it out for the #5 spot. It should be pretty interesting to see who can step it up in their next couple starts since the pressure is now on the two of them.
Anon: I figured we'd do the math on a Phillies sweep if they win tonight. But, since you asked, if the Phillies sweep and the Mets go 15-14 the rest of the way, the Phils would have to go 17-12 to tie them.
Kevin: Disagreeing with me is allowed. Actually, it's encouraged. Jamie and Matt In Philadelphia make a habit of it. To be clear, I don't think Moyer is pitching well right now. But I can't see him being removed from the rotation.
Zach: I also spoke to some Phillies execs yesterday, and I got the impression that they don't know exactly what they're going to do yet. Regardless of who gets the fourth and fifth spots (Moyer, Durbin, Eaton), that guy will be on a short leash. The message is clear: Pitch well or be replaced. And, right now, with the Phillies in a playoff race, that's how it should be.
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