BY SCOTT LAUBERIn a few hours, presumably before the Eagles and Cardinals kick off in the desert, we expect to hear from Cole Hamels, who agreed yesterday to a three-year, $20.5 million contract extension. Pending the results of a physical, Hamels will hold a press conference at the Bank, and obviously, we'll bring you the details. While we wait, though, let's analyze the deal, which can be looked at in two ways, depending on your point of view:
a) A shrewd move by both Hamels and the Phils.
OR
b) A Band-Aid to cover an issue that will rise again.
To me, it was a shrewd move -- by both sides. Sure, the contract buys only three of Hamels' arbitration years. He still will be facing arbitration after the 2011 season, and he still can become a free agent after 2012. At that point, he'll be only 28, and barring injury, still one of the NL's top pitchers. Ultimately, if the Phillies want to keep Hamels long-term, they'll have to pay up, and if Hamels wins a Cy Young Award or two in the next three years, they'll have to pay big. The Phillies rarely dole out contracts longer than three years for pitchers, but with Hamels, they eventually may have to make an exception. This contract, though, gives them three years to decide. And I think everyone wants to see Hamels string together a few more 200-inning seasons before they slap the "workhorse" label over his previously "injury-prone" reputation.
Plus, the Phillies have other financial issues, like Ryan Howard and Ryan Madson and Jayson Werth. If they hadn't made this deal with Hamels, it's possible he could've earned more than $20.5 million over the next three years through arbitration. By getting cost control on Hamels, the Phillies may have more payroll flexibility in 2009, '10 and '11 to keep more of their core players and make another run at the World Series before Howard, the toughest to sign of those players, becomes a free agent.
Hamels, meanwhile, is guaranteed to make $20.5 million, regardless of injury. And, last season not withstanding, he hasn't always been the healthiest pitcher. For that security, he may sacrifice some dollars. But unlike Chase Utley, who opted for security over maximum value when he signed a seven-year, $85 million contract before the '07 season, Hamels still will be able to take advantage of his maximum earning power during his final arbitration season and his free-agent years.
Regardless, it's clear that Hamels harbors no ill will after last March, when he wasn't pleased that the Phils renewed his contract for $500,000 instead of giving him a multiyear deal. But then that was obvious in the clubhouse after Game 5 of the World Series when Hamels said he wanted to be part of a Phillies dynasty that could rival the Braves and Yankees.
To me, it was a shrewd move -- by both sides. Sure, the contract buys only three of Hamels' arbitration years. He still will be facing arbitration after the 2011 season, and he still can become a free agent after 2012. At that point, he'll be only 28, and barring injury, still one of the NL's top pitchers. Ultimately, if the Phillies want to keep Hamels long-term, they'll have to pay up, and if Hamels wins a Cy Young Award or two in the next three years, they'll have to pay big. The Phillies rarely dole out contracts longer than three years for pitchers, but with Hamels, they eventually may have to make an exception. This contract, though, gives them three years to decide. And I think everyone wants to see Hamels string together a few more 200-inning seasons before they slap the "workhorse" label over his previously "injury-prone" reputation.
Plus, the Phillies have other financial issues, like Ryan Howard and Ryan Madson and Jayson Werth. If they hadn't made this deal with Hamels, it's possible he could've earned more than $20.5 million over the next three years through arbitration. By getting cost control on Hamels, the Phillies may have more payroll flexibility in 2009, '10 and '11 to keep more of their core players and make another run at the World Series before Howard, the toughest to sign of those players, becomes a free agent.
Hamels, meanwhile, is guaranteed to make $20.5 million, regardless of injury. And, last season not withstanding, he hasn't always been the healthiest pitcher. For that security, he may sacrifice some dollars. But unlike Chase Utley, who opted for security over maximum value when he signed a seven-year, $85 million contract before the '07 season, Hamels still will be able to take advantage of his maximum earning power during his final arbitration season and his free-agent years.
Regardless, it's clear that Hamels harbors no ill will after last March, when he wasn't pleased that the Phils renewed his contract for $500,000 instead of giving him a multiyear deal. But then that was obvious in the clubhouse after Game 5 of the World Series when Hamels said he wanted to be part of a Phillies dynasty that could rival the Braves and Yankees.
But enough of what I think. What say you? Good deal for the Phils? For Hamels?
***
An '09 payroll update: The Phillies have committed more than $93 million to 17 players -- Brett Myers ($12 million), Brad Lidge ($11.5 million), Chase Utley ($11 million), Adam Eaton ($8.5 million), Raul Ibanez ($8.5 million), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million), Geoff Jenkins ($6.75 million), Jamie Moyer ($6.5 million), Pedro Feliz ($5 million), Cole Hamels ($4.35 million), J.C. Romero ($4 million), Chan Ho Park ($2.5 million), Scott Eyre ($2 million), Greg Dobbs ($1.15 million), Matt Stairs ($1 million), Eric Bruntlett ($800,000), Clay Condrey ($650,000).Howard, Madson, Werth, Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Chad Durbin are still in line for arbitration. If they don't reach settlements by noon Tuesday, they will swap salary figures with the Phillies. Negotiations could continue until a February hearing, and as assistant GM Scott Proefrock said in our Sunday MLB notes, sometimes agreements actually are easier to reach after the numbers have been exchanged. Between them, the six players made $18.33 million last season. It's possible their combined salaries could double in 2009, leaving the Phillies' payroll at about $125 million. And that's before the Phils renew the contracts of non-yet-arbitration-eligible players like Carlos Ruiz, Ronny Paulino, Chris Coste, J.A. Happ and Kyle Kendrick, none of whom figure to make more than $500,000.
(Updated, 9:22 a.m.): Upon completion of Hamels' physical, Ruben Amaro Jr. has now confirmed the signing. Press conference at Citizens Bank Park at 1 p.m. More after that.
(Hamels photo by Getty Images.)
1 comment:
This deal is amazing! Hamels would have almost definitely made way more than this in arbitration. He would have gotten probably $25MM-$30MM over that time in arbitration, so this is huge savings. I see why Cole went for it-- he's at risk to get injured and this is insurance against this, but this is an excellent deal for the Phillies.
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