Jan. 26 -- HOWARD VS. PHILLIES, TAKE 2

BY SCOTT LAUBER

No football games to watch yesterday. So, with 19 days until Phillies pitchers and catchers begin working out in the Clearwater sun, I started to think more about Ryan Howard's latest arbitration case.

Now, Ruben Amaro Jr. said a few days ago that he remains optimistic that the Phillies can reach an accord with Howard before the case goes to a hearing. But Amaro was optimistic last year, too, and the sides weren't able to agree. Howard is asking for $18 million. The Phillies are offering $14 million. And based on Howard's previous long-term contract demands, it's unlikely the Phillies will be able to sign him to a multiyear deal, making a February date at the arbitration table in Phoenix seem rather inevitable.

So, if the Phillies and Howard have another hearing, who wins?

"It could go either way," said Maury Brown, a sports business analyst and founder of the Business of Sports Network.

Brown specializes in these things. In fact, he tracks arbitration cases on his Web site. We spoke for nearly 45 minutes yesterday, mostly with me picking his brain, and when we were through, the only thing that was certain was that nothing regarding Howard's case is certain.

On one hand, thanks to an epic September, Howard finished with more home runs (48 to 47), RBIs (146 to 136), runs (105 to 94) and hits (105 to 94) in 2008 than he had in 2007. Of course, he also had more at-bats (610 to 529) in '08 because he missed two weeks in May '07 with a strained quad. And Howard experienced a decline in three important areas -- batting average (.251 from .268), on-base/slugging percentage (.882 from .976) and walks (81 from 107). But, generally speaking, he had a better season in '08. Was it better enough, though, to merit an $8 million raise? Or should Howard receive a $4 million raise?

And, perhaps, Howard's production isn't even the issue. We know that Howard has more homers and RBIs than any player in the past three years. We know that he has reached 150 career homers in fewer at-bats than any player. Howard won his $10 million award last year because his agent, Casey Close, swayed the three-person panel of arbitrators by invoking a "special accomplishment" provision. Close will no doubt build another case around Howard's historic numbers.

But, this time, the Phillies are hoping Team Howard has overreached with its salary request. Consider that Albert Pujols, the reigning NL MVP and two months younger than Howard, will make $16 million this year. If the Phillies can prove that Howard is worth any less than $16 million, they'll win the case. If Close can prove that Howard is worth any more than $16 million, Howard will win.

"It's not a matter of performance. It's a matter of money," Brown said. "Is he worth more than the midpoint [$16 million]? That's going to be a difficult case to make on some levels in relation to Pujols. But it's not a slam dunk on either side."

So, who is Brown picking?

"I'm leaning very slightly toward Howard, but in this sense, I think it could go either way," he said. "It's awfully close. I'd die to be a fly on the wall for this one."

Wouldn't we all.