Jan. 20 -- HOWARD'S BIG NUMBER

BY SCOTT LAUBER

Earlier tonight, I asked Ruben Amaro Jr. for his reaction to Ryan Howard's $18 million arbitration request.

"It's a very high number," Amaro said.

Ya think?

But, really, did we expect anything less?

It's a year later, and nothing has changed. Howard's camp -- led by his father -- believes The Big Man is a historic slugger who should make historic money. Want to sign Howard to a multiyear deal? Prepare to cough up A-Rod dollars. Want to go year-to-year in arbitration? OK, that'll cost you, too. Howard took his arbitration case to a hearing last February and won a record $10 million judgment. If he returns to the arbitration table, Camp Howard is confident it will win again. The Phillies, meanwhile, are clinging to the hope that Howard overreached this time. After all, Howard's batting average and OPS (on-base/slugging percentage) have declined over the past two years.

Regular readers of The Blog know how I feel about all this. Yeah, I know Howard has hit 58, 47 and 48 homers and collected 149, 136 and 146 RBIs over the past three seasons. I know that no player, not even Babe Ruth, reached 150 homers in fewer games. And I know that few have Howard's ability to alter the outcome of a game with one swing. But I also know that Howard is 29 years old and will be 32 when he's eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. And I know that he's a defensive liability at first base and has flirted with 200 strikeouts for the past two seasons. And I look at Mo Vaughn broke down after his 30th birthday and wonder if Howard, who has a similar body type, will do the same.

So, I think the Phillies ought to pay the arbitration freight, even if it's $18 million, and take another run at the World Series. If Howard's salary demands don't come down, they may have to consider trading him in 2010. Or maybe, with Cole Hamels and Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge locked up through at least 2010, they go through this whole thing with Howard again next year, too.

By then, maybe the asking price will be $20 million.

***
Amaro said the Phillies are hopeful of reaching agreements with Jayson Werth and Chad Durbin "within the next 48 hours." They aren't far apart with either. Werth is asking for $4 million; the Phillies have offered $3 million. Durbin wants $1.95 million; the Phillies have offered $1.35 million. Odds are, they'll meet in the middle.

***
Payroll watch: A few days ago, after Hamels signed his three-year deal, we told you the Phillies had committed more than $93 million to 17 players for 2009. Factor in today's trio of arbitration-avoiding signings -- Ryan Madson ($3 million in 2009), Joe Blanton ($5.475 million) and Shane Victorino ($3.125 million) -- and their payroll commitment increases to nearly $106 million. Assuming Werth gets about $3.5 million and Durbin gets about $1.6, the payroll rises above $111 million. After Howard reaches a settlement, it'll be between $126 million and $129 million, and with the not-yet-arbitration-eligible players (Carlos Ruiz, Ronny Paulino, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, etc.), it'll top $130 million, by far a franchise record.

So, don't expect the Phillies to go get Ben Sheets, as one out-of-town newspaper suggested they may consider. In fact, Amaro told me tonight that, if anything, he'd like to add another reliever and possibly a right-handed bat for the bench. Neither, though, would be "big-ticket" players. Amaro said Nomar Garciaparra remains a possibility, although the Phillies aren't sure Garciaparra wants to play in 2009.

***
Tomorrow (Wednesday) we'll analyze each of the Phils' arbitration settlements (I talked about some of them tonight with Mike Gill of ESPN 1450, and if you click this link and scroll down, you can listen). Meanwhile, I'll leave you with this: I'm kind of a politics junkie, so I've been glued to my TV, watching coverage of Barack Obama. More than a million people gathered today on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., an inaugural record. But consider this: At least that many folks jammed Broad Street for the Phillies' championship parade. Pretty amazing, isn't it?

(Thanks to Finger Food for the photo illustration.)