Jan. 4 -- WHAT TEIXEIRA MEANS TO HOWARD

BY SCOTT LAUBER

So, I know y'all are preoccupied by today's Eagles game, and you absolutely should be. To me, the events of last Sunday -- so many things simultaneously and improbably breaking in the Birds' favor -- were reminiscent of those unforgettable final weeks in September 2007, when the Mets' epic freefall and the Phillies' surge coincided to give the Phils their first division title since 1993. The Eagles' road to the playoffs has been every bit as unexpected and compelling. But this is a baseball blog, so please indulge me while, in the middle of winter and the NFL playoffs, I offer a few thoughts on a topic you'll be hearing a lot about this month and probably next.

Arbitration.

Starting tomorrow, and every day until Jan. 15, eligible players will file for salary arbitration. The Phils have eight such players (Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Chad Durbin, Greg Dobbs), and in the MLB notes in your Sunday News Journal, we discuss the reality that their combined salaries could balloon from $19 million last year to $38-40 million in 2009, hiking the Phillies' overall opening-day payroll to the $125 million range.

Howard, as always, will be the most curious case. If we're to believe Ruben Amaro Jr., and I have no reason not to, the Phillies are in no rush to sign Howard to a long-term contract, certainly not for the type of deal (7-8 years, $200-plus million) that he's believed to be seeking. Howard won't be a free agent until after the 2011 season, and although he's almost assured of receiving another record raise through arbitration, the Phillies would rather pay him now than overspend for him later. And regular readers of The Blog know that I whole-heartedly agree with that philosophy because, I'm convinced, players of Howard's body type aren't as productive once they reach their mid-30s (see Vaughn, Mo). That, though, is a debate that we'll undoubtedly have in a more detailed post within the next few days/weeks.

For now, I want to reference the eight-year, $180 million contract that the Yankees gave to free agent Mark Teixeira last week. You can agree or disagree with how the Yankees spend their money, or maybe you don't care. Either way, know this: Howard, his family and agent Casey Close were watching closely because they believe The Big Man is worth more than just about any slugger in the game, including Teixeira.

We addressed the subject in last Sunday's News Journal. Howard's backers argue, quite convincingly, that there isn't a player, Babe Ruth included, who reached 150 career home runs in fewer games. Teixeira is wonderfully talented. He has averaged 35 homers and 118 RBIs since 2004. But Howard leads the planet with 153 homers and 431 RBIs over the past three seasons, and while his batting average and OPS dropped from 2007 to 2008, homers and RBIs seem to mean more to arbitrators. Howard is a historic slugger, his supporters claim, and it's a fact that is both true and difficult to argue. If Teixeira can make $20 million per year, why can't Howard?

What Camp Howard seemingly refuses to realize, though, is that players don't receive their maximum market value until they reach free agency. Howard won't be there for three more years when, through no fault of his own, he'll already be 32, and if he wants a multiyear contract before then, he'll probably have to do what all arbitration-eligible players do when they sign multiyear deals: Trade some dollars for long-term security. Chase Utley, by all accounts, could've cashed an even richer deal than the seven-year, $85 million contract he got before the 2007 season. But, and I'll never forget this, on the day Utley signed, his wife told me and another reporter that the security of a long-term deal was more important to the just-married couple. And, besides, $85 million was more than enough to ensure they'll never be in the poor house.

But if Howard is content to play on escalating one-year contracts through 2011 (he made $10 million in '08 and could rake in $15 million in '09), Teixeira's deal with the Yankees turns his $200 million hope into less of a pipe dream, don't you think?