BY SCOTT LAUBERSo, I know The Groundhog saw his shadow yesterday. And I know it's snowing outside. And I know the notion of six more weeks of winter is about as depressing as, well, the last time you checked the status of your 401(k).
But pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater in 10 days, so really, things can't be that bad.
As the big day (Feb. 14) draws closer, we'll ramp up our Phillies coverage here at The Blog and in the pages of The News Journal. I'll travel to Clearwater next Wednesday, and in the meantime, I'll work to bring you more from Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel. We'll also break down the top competitions for roster spots, and along the way, try to provide some unique, off-beat stories to get you ready for Opening Night, April 5 at the Bank. Also, look for some new features on The Blog. I won't spoil the surprise, but you'll know them when you see them.
For now, though, I thought I'd rattle off some random thoughts about the upcoming seven weeks in Clearwater. And what better way to make the official football-to-baseball hand-off than by taking a page from esteemed Sports Illustrated writer Peter King's always-entertaining blog format and presenting 10 things I think I think:
1. I think Ryan Howard wins his arbitration case even if he loses. Whether he makes $18 million or $14 million this year, The Big Man can serve as his own economic stimulus program.
2. I think Raul Ibanez will be a perfectly suitable replacement for Pat Burrell. Yes, Ibanez (37 in June) is older than Burrell (33). No, he isn't an appreciable defensive upgrade. And yes, Ibanez ($31.5 million for three years) will cost more than Burrell ($16 million for two years). But he also will be a more consistent hitter and won't make you pull out your hair during those maddening slumps.
3. That said, I think Burrell is going to have a nice year as the Rays' designated hitter. Pencil him in for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs.
4. I think Ty Wigginton would have been a nice addition to the Phillies' bench. But the price (two years, $6 million from the Orioles) was too steep, especially considering the Phillies are having a hard time unloading the $7 million remaining on Geoff Jenkins' contract.
5. I think Chris Coste has to make the Phillies' roster. Somehow.
6. I think a large part of the Phillies' success/failure will depend on two things: a) whether Ryan Madson can be the shut-down setup man that he was in September and October; b)whether Jamie Moyer can win 16 games again. That's a lot to ask of a 46-year-old ...
7. ... but I think Carlos Carrasco will win 10 games, relieving a lot of the burden.
8. I think "Doubt" was the best movie I saw this winter, although I haven't seen "Slumdog Millionaire" or "The Wrestler" yet.
9. I think Chase Utley plays on Opening Night.
10. I think the offseason was too short (it has been only 95 days since the parade), but I know the Phillies won't mind another abbreviated winter in 2009-10.
4 comments:
Hamels is now officially an ace. Does anyone really think Myers will spend time rehabbing his psyche in the minors again? Blanton will be on hand all year, not only with that booming right-handed bat, but pitching, too. So does Moyer really need to win 16? We'll see if he needs to, but the smart money still says he puts up at least 10.
And 10 wins from potential fifth starter Carrasco? That'd be one less win than failure Kyle Kendrick put up last year. So, if Hamels, Myers, and Blanton all decide not to pitch like a defending World Series champion staff next year, and Moyer finally does act his age, only 10 wins from the lean rookie (or any other 5-hole starter) won't look like real 2009 difference makers, I'm afraid.
Hey, how come, unlike other baseball bloggers for metro dailies, you never enter any comments here yourself?
Sam (or is it Harry?): Thanks for the note. I do try to respond to comments - and engage readers in conversation - whenever I can. I've said this before, but it's worth repeating: The give-and-take with readers is what I enjoy most about blogging.
Anyway, about the Phillies' rotation ... I fully expect Hamels to win more than 14 games. (He might've won 20 last year if he'd had better run support.) To me, Myers is still a hit-or-miss proposition. Surely, he isn't as bad as he was during the first half of last season, but is he as good as he was during the second half? Chances are, he's somewhere in between.
I've been a Blanton backer since the Phillies traded for him, and I think he'll have a nice year. I don't think 14-16 wins are out of the question. So, maybe you're right. Maybe Moyer doesn't have to win 16 games. But I think he had better come close. If he isn't in the 12-14 range, at least, I think the Phils may be in some trouble.
Regarding Carrasco, that prediction is based on the idea that he doesn't open the season with the Phillies. I think Chan Ho Park or J.A. Happ wins the No. 5 spot during spring training and Carrasco starts at Lehigh Valley. But I could see him getting called up at some point (May or June). Kendrick had 10 wins after being called up in June of 2007, and I think Carrasco could provide a similar boost this year.
I love being defending world champions! A place I've never been in during my life! 10 days until Pitchers report? Unbelievable!!! Feels like we just marched down Broad Street!! Thanks in advance, Scott, for the exceptional season of blogging ahead!
Bold Prediction: Hamels - 2009 NL Cy Young Award
I think we all like Coste on the team. The team needs a right-handed bat off the bench. Ronny Paulino should be able to caddy for Carlos Ruiz until either Lou Marson is ready to come up from the minors or the Phils go shopping for another back-up catcher. Problems solved - better that than wasting money on Nomar's reluctant and extremely slow right-handed bat.
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