We had earlier-than-usual deadlines at The News Journal last night, so many thanks to Aaron Rowand for ending the game in timely, not to mention dramatic, fashion. And with all that's swirling around Rowand right now, from the remote (extremely remote) possibility he could be traded before the July 31 nonwaiver deadline to the issue of whether the Phillies will (or should) re-sign him this winter, the game story sort of wrote itself.Regarding the latter topic: A few weeks ago, Rowand's agent, Craig Landis, told me the Phillies haven't initiated discussions about a contract extension, leaving him to guess they'd like less-expensive Michael Bourn to take over in center field next year. But even if they had opened negotiations, Rowand made it clear last night that he isn't interested in talking business until after the season ends. "All the stuff that's going to go on is going to go on in the offseason, I'll tell you that right now," he said. "I couldn't care less about it right now. All those things will take care of themselves."
And, really, can you blame him? He's having a career season (.330, 31 doubles, 14 homers, 55 RBIs, .930 OPS), and he stands to get lucrative offers this winter from any teams that miss out on signing higher-profile free-agent center fielders Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones. With Ichiro Suzuki off the market, Rowand is next in line behind Hunter and Jones, probably in the same class with Eric Byrnes and Mike Cameron. He's making $4.35 million this season, and as a free agent, it's not outlandish to think he could fetch $8 million or so per year for four years.
I've been rather surprised by some of your comments to previous posts about how the Phillies shouldn't bother re-signing Rowand. After he broke his face on the center-field fence last season, I guess I thought he had developed a greater allegiance among the Phillies faithful. Was I wrong?
OK, let's put it to a simple vote: Assuming Rowand will cost the Phillies $32-36 million over the next four seasons, should they re-sign him over the winter (and probably trade Bourn for a pitcher)? Or should they let him go and commit to thus-far-unproven Bourn?
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Base coaches Davey Lopes and Steve Smith talked about the shocking death of Tulsa first-base coach Mike Coolbaugh. Also within the notebook are injury updates on Brett Myers, Jayson Werth, Freddy Garcia, Francisco Rosario and Scott Mathieson, as well as this factoid: J.D. Durbin became the 24th pitcher this season to throw a shutout. The others: Kelvim Escobar, Johan Santana, Jarrod Washburn, C.C. Sabathia, Dustin McGowan, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Jon Lieber, Roy Halladay, Jeff Weaver, Jason Marquis, Mark Buehrle, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva, Erik Bedard, Jose Contreras, Joe Blanton, Felix Hernandez, Wandy Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, Paul Maholm and Kason Gabbard. Buehrle and Verlander, of course, threw no-hitters. On the flip side, Weaver's ERA is 6.19.
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Real estate in the 50-cent edition was even more precious than usual, so I wasn't able to get into this. But Nats third-base coach Tim Tolman made what can only be described as a boneheaded decision in the third inning last night. With Ryan Zimmerman on deck and two outs, Tolman waived pitcher Jason Bergmann to the plate on Ronnie Belliard's single to center. Rowand fielded the ball on two hops and made a strong throw that easily got Bergmann, who had to leave the game in the next half inning because of left hamstring tightness. After the game, Bergmann, who graduated from the same high school as yours truly, said he was injured trying to score.
Yikes. And you thought Smith was a bad third-base coach?
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Kyle Kendrick didn't have his best stuff last night, and he admitted that his command was off. Kendrick walked three and hit a batter. Brian Schneider's three run double in the fourth was the most damaging blow, but Kendrick was more upset that he hit Austin Kearns one batter earlier. Rather than conceding one run, he put himself in position to allow three. Just a reminder that Kendrick is a rookie.
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Before the Phillies notched only their second one-run win since June 3, Charlie Manuel's math told him they need to win 90 games to make the playoffs. That means they'll have to go 39-24 (.619) to get there. For the season, no team in baseball is playing above .608. Think they can do it?
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The Orioles staged a grand send-off to Cal Ripken Jr. last night at Camden Yards, and Martin Frank was there. If you haven't already, check it out. It's a good read.
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For those who insisted the Phillies shortchanged Ryan Howard by giving him a $900,000 contract for 2007, check out what Mr. MVP is driving these days. Kind of puts my Saturn ION to shame.
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I would only buy Playboy for the articles, of course, and it looks like this month's will feature an interesting one.
15 comments:
I'm not a fan of not re-signing Rowand. If his numbers are CBP-inflated and he plays half his games in CBP, sign him. The risk is, however, that his numbers would slump after signing a big deal (a la Travis Hafner, Jeff Weaver, etc). I'd sort of like to see Burrell traded or something, and have the Phils sign Byrnes to play left, keep Rowand or let him walk (insert Bourn) and Victorino. Brynes' numbers over the last two seasons as incredible, and it doesn't look like he'll be a Diamondback once the season's over. However, I've heard he'd have a preference to stay on the left coast. It'll be a tough call for the Phillies brass. Rowand's obviously an old-school gamer, which endears him to Phillies fans, and I'd love to see him back in a Phils uniform for 4 or 5 more years. Ultimately, however, it's more about what the organization sees as the best move, not what the fans want (Chris Coste's situation prior to this season comes to mind).
yeah sorry, Rowand is a better player than Byrnes.
Rowand gets a bad rap from the sabermetric crowd because his all-important-nothing-else-matters OBP was not high at all last year and he had a reputation as a hacker who never takes pitches. Things he brings to table like leadership and other intangibles get thrown out the window because there is no way to quantify it. Personally I love the fact that he is shoving it up the you know what of the haters. I would love to see this guy in red pinstripes next year.
Given all the offense in our lineup, I'd be willing to pass on Rowand IF Gillick could figure out how to spend that money on good pitching. But man, that's a really big IF.
I think every Phillies fan likes Rowand for what he has done for the team on the field and for being a class act, but if this team spends another dime on hitting I'll personally drive to the stadium and light myself on fire.
Bourn should take over, and maybe he won't be the guy they hope he is, but they need to spend every penny they have on pitching this offseason. They lead the league in runs scored, AGAIN, and probably won't make the playoffs.....AGAIN. Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching.
after saying that we should trade rowand all season, i've reversed my stance. we should definitely re-sign rowand. the pitcher market this offseason is so bare of someone to overspend money on that it really wouldn't make sense to spend the money there. may as well just re-sign rowand and keep his defense and his offense in the lineup. don't trade bourn either unless needed next year. he profiles as a great defensive replacement and 4th outfielder.
I think most if not all Phillies fan like Rowand and want him back. But it's pretty clear that the Phillies have a minimal shot at signing because they won't get into a biddin war with a cheaper Bourn on the team. I'd try and trade him and take what I can get. Then take the money saved from Garcia, Lieber, and Rowand and go after a top level free agent pitcher. This time, do an MRI if you notice his velocity has dropped.
Anon (from 8:53 a.m.): I agree with you that the Phillies must prioritize pitching over everything else. And, certainly, I don't want to see you light yourself on fire.
But here's a thought:
Considering the Phillies play half their games in a decidedly hitter-friendly ballpark, pitchers aren't necessarily eager to come play for them. Surely, if I'm a free agent pitcher and the money is equal, I'm going to San Diego or New York before I'm coming to Philly. My ERA will be substantially lower if half my starts come in cavernous Petco Park or Shea Stadium (not sure how Citi Field is going to play).
Having said that, maybe the Phils aren't crazy to sink their money into offense. There's no question Rowand is a big part of that offense. So, maybe they should sign him, after all?
Jamie: Best guess-- if Rowand stays, Bourn goes. At that point, Bourn becomes one of their few tradable assets, and it may be easier (and cheaper) to trade for pitching than to get someone through free agency.
Scott: who are you going to package bourn with to trade for a pitcher? it won't happen till at least next trading deadline when some of our prospects hit AA and AAA.
there is ONE good FA pitcher next year and thats zambrano. there is no other pitcher worth spending the money on that won't give a better performance than what we have on the team now. so you may as well allocate the money to rowand or further drop in rankings on MLB payroll.
Hey Scott, thanks for the plug. That's worth an egg roll at China Buffet. As for Rowand, the Phillies find themselves in quite a dilemma. If they trade Bourn and keep Rowand, they could end up losing Rowand at the end of the season, and will probably have to overpay to get someone like Eric Byrnes (I would take him in a heartbeat). And that could take away from what they might be able to spend on a pitcher. But they obviously need a pitcher right now, and Bourn is the best value they have to trade.
My guess is they'll do nothing at the trade deadline, miss the playoffs, lose Rowand to free agency, give Bourn the CF job next season, and use Rowand's money, plus Freddy's $10M and Lieber's $7M and go hard after a starter and a back-end reliever.
Remember, it's not necessarily about winning with Dave Montgomery. It's about filling the ballpark and maximizing profits. And, as you've surely noticed, the ballpark is filled despite their mediocre record.
Here's my suggestion.
Spend the money to resign Rowand. (I have a sneaking suspicion that his desire to win and his affection for the clubhouse comraderie will get him signed at $8m/year anyway.) And use the savings from Garcia and Lieber's salary to hire a STUD, NEW PITCHING COACH! That's right folks, I'M BLAMING RICH DUBEE! Quit trying to lure the big free agent names to Philly and invest the money in the long-term development of the arms already in the system. We've been watching it in New York, with Peterson (curly mullet and all) working wonders with mediocre talents John Maine and Oliver Perez. Heck, St. Louis' Dave Duncan tweaked the Cardinals' rotation into World Series champs last fall! There is a definite difference between the product produced by those two guys and what Dubee has been putting on the field for the Phils. Now, one might argue that Kendrick and Durbin have so far been success stories for Dubee this year, but I ask you how many times those two have credited Dubee for their success and how many times they've thanked Jamie Moyer?
I say the Phils go after a mid-range starter this offseason to fill out next season's rotation, but spend some real money on a truly talented coach who can work Scott Mathieson, Joe Savery and Carlos Carrasco into studs.
In a vacuum, I would obviously want Rowand back. But when you have viable replacements in-house, and bigger, more-glaring needs elsewhere - it does not seem penny-wise to sink money into Aaron Rowand when there is little chance of him matching the season he is having right now.
Jamie: We agree that, in spite of the Phillies pitching problems, they'd be wise to re-sign Rowand. That said, Bourn's value to the Phils is greatly diminished if he's used merely as a pinch-runner/Pat Burrell's defensive replacement/fourth outfielder. If you're going to commit to Rowand for the next four years, why not trade Bourn for pitching help? I'm not sure he'd have to be packaged with much else to get a back-of-the-rotation starter or relief help. And, if that pitcher is under contract beyond this season, it's worth trading a guy who won't start for you next season anyway (assuming they re-sign Rowand).
Martin makes a great point about how winning isn't always the greatest motivation for his ownership group. But I think that's probably a separate post for another day, maybe Aug. 1 after the Phillies didn't improve themselves.
tell me what 4/5th option that bourn will be able to net alone. zero. our AA and AAA prospects are non existant outside of carrasco/costanzo/happ/bisenius. the latter two are injured and the former are either untouchable and not wanted. bourn will not net a 4th or 5th starter. you would have to give up one of our more promising A guys. but not just one but several. not worth it for a guy who is going to carry a 5 ERA.
but if you trade Bourn. who is your 4th OF option? werth? is he even going to be healthy? do you have an insider view on his injury. i suspect its the same injury thats kept him out for the past 2 years. there is no 4th OF for the phillies. its better to keep him and keep on trucking and HOPE you luck out in FA. as PG has said, the asking price for any pitching is astronimical.
and have you guys seen whats available in the FA this year. absolutely nothing!
Jamie: Werth began a 10-day rehab assignment last night for single-A Clearwater (he went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts). From what Werth has told me, it's tendinitis in his left wrist, but it's not believed to be related to the fracture that kept him out for most of the past two seasons.
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