Thursday, October 11, 2007

Oct. 11 -- DEAL OR NO DEAL?

So, about a half hour after Charlie Manuel's news conference concluded yesterday at the Bank, I was talking with David Montgomery about the Phillies' payroll. At no point did he sound like an owner who was ready to sell his share of the team. In fact, he sounded very much invested in retaining his stake in the Phillies in 2008 -- and beyond.

Now, I just finished my second season covering the Phillies, and at various times, I've heard rumblings about a potential sale. I've never uncovered any truth to those rumblings. So, I tend to file the most recent one under the "rumor" category. This ownership group bought the team in 1981 for $30 million. Forbes recently estimated the Phillies' value at $457 million. With attendance climbing above 3 million, TV ratings at an all-time high and the team making the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, it seems to me the franchise value will only increase in the coming years. Not sure why they'd sell now.

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It does, however, sound like the Phillies are willing to increase payroll. On opening day, they were spending $95 million on player salaries (including Jim Thome). By the end of the season, after acquiring Kyle Lohse, Tadahito Iguchi, J.C. Romero, Jose Mesa and others, Montgomery estimated the cost had risen to approximately $103 million. I asked him, point-blank, if he thought the payroll would be that high on opening-day 2008, and he said, "In that ballpark, or higher."

OK, good news, right? Well, only if Pat Gillick can identify enough quality players to justify spending the extra cash. And, that won't be easy.

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In the 50-center Wednesday, we posed the top five questions facing the Phillies. Yesterday, Gillick offered up a few answers, and a few other outtakes that didn't make the paper:

Pitching for help: "If you get pitching, it'll be more likely through a trade as opposed to free agency. That would mean moving someone off this roster at the major-league level." Gillick described the market as "dangerous." What he meant was that a lot of middling pitchers will get massive contracts. Do you want to spend $24.5 million over three years for another Adam Eaton? Gillick doesn't want to make that mistake again. "We got a dangerous one last year," he said, referring to Eaton. Gillick said the Phils won't consider bringing back Freddy Garcia or Jon Lieber. You probably knew that, but it was nice to hear Gillick say it.

Shelling out for Curt Schilling: "The guy has changed his style. He looks like he's been more of a finesse guy instead of a power guy. He's got a feel for pitching. If you can do that, you can prolong your career for a year or two." The other day, I posted a list of free-agent pitchers. Not many impressive names, are there? That's why I think Gillick will trade for a pitcher rather than signing one. Of course, he could also throw a two-year deal at someone like Schilling. Gillick prefers short-term deals.

Case closed?: "[Brett Myers] enjoys being in the bullpen, and Charlie and our staff feel that's the place for him. In sports, I don't know if you can say anything is etched in stone. Brett will do what's best for the team." Translation: If the Phillies can find a reliever, Myers may move back to the rotation. If they get a starter, he'll stay put.

Front and center: "[Aaron Rowand] does a lot of positive things for us – in the clubhouse, on the field. He likes to play, loves to win. Those type of guys bring a lot to the club. He's certainly somebody we'll strongly consider."

Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn sharing center and right field if Rowand departs: "I think that would be a stretch." Just a thought here: If the Phillies re-sign Rowand (for something like three years and $33 million), maybe they'd flip Victorino (or maybe even Pat Burrell?) for a pitcher.

Who's on third?: "We need to get better at third base." Gillick indicated it was 50-50 that they'd upgrade via free agency (Mike Lowell) or a trade (Garrett Atkins).

Forget about A-Rod: "He'd probably rule us out, too."

Catch 22: "We're comfortable with [Chris] Coste. We didn't feel comfortable [last winter] catching Coster if [Carlos] Ruiz got hurt, so we needed somebody to back Ruiz up, and [Rod] Barajas was a veteran guy. We were looking at Rod catching 90 games and Carlos catching 70, and working [Ruiz] in full-time in 2008. Now, we're in a different situation. [Prospect Jason] Jaramillo could come up if something happened to Ruiz or Coste."

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Manuel says he wants to lose 20 to 30 pounds before next season. My humble suggestion for a training regimen:

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good stuff Scott. Great picture of Gillick also, that's some frown.