So, the Red Sox and Indians are heading back to Fenway Park for Game 6 tomorrow night. Will it be Curt Schilling's Boston swan song? For the Sox, it's up to Schilling to prolong their season and force Game 7. Regardless, you can bet the Phillies and other pitching-needy teams will be watching. Schill (seen here likely opining on his blog) will be a free agent after the season, and it's possible, even at age 41, he still could help plenty of clubs.When you think of Schilling, you think of his performance for the D-Backs in the 2001 World Series. And, of course, you think of the bloody sock (or was it ketchup?) during that epic ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004. But, really, Schilling became an ace with the Phillies, for whom he won 14 games in 1992, 16 in '93, 17 in '97 and 15 in both '98 and '99.
Could he finish his career in Philadelphia? It's entirely possible, especially if Schilling is sincere about his willingness to accept a one-year contract. With that in mind, we continue our position-by-position breakdown of the Phillies by examining their rotation. For the purposes of this discussion, we'll just pretend Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber don't exist. Both are free agents and neither will be re-signed, according to GM Pat Gillick. Too bad the Phils can't still call on this guy, circa 1955, of course.
COLE HAMELS (LHP)Opening-day age: 24
Contract: Not arbitration-eligible until after 2008 season; $400,000 in 2007
2007 stats: 15-5, 3.39 ERA; 28 starts/183.1 IP/163 H; 72 BB/177 K
Career stats: 24-13, 3.68 ERA; 51 starts/315.2 IP/280 H; 120 BB/322 K
KYLE KENDRICK (RHP)
Opening-day age: 23
Contract: Not arbitration-eligible until at least after 2009 season; $380,000 in 2007
2007/career stats: 10-4, 3.87 ERA; 20 starts/121 IP/129 H; 25 BB/49 K
KYLE LOHSE (RHP)
Opening-day age: 29
Contract: Eligible for free agency; $4.2 million in 2007
2007 stats (overall): 9-12, 4.62 ERA; 32 starts/192.2 IP/207 H; 57 BB/122 K
2007 stats (w/Phils): 3-0, 4.72 ERA; 11 starts/61 IP/64 H; 24 BB/42 K
Career stats: 63-74, 4.82 ERA; 195 starts/1,164 IP/1,302 H; 365 BB/734 K
JAMIE MOYER (LHP)
Opening-day age: 45
Contract: Second season of two-year, $10.5 million extension; $5.5 million in 2008 ($500,000 bonus for 165 innings pitched and an additional $500,000 for 175 and 185 innings pitched; $50,000 for All-Star, $50,000 for Gold Glove, $50,000 for Silver Slugger; full no-trade clause).
2007 stats: 14-12, 5.01 ERA; 33 starts/199.1 IP/222 H; 66 BB/133 K
Career stats: 230-178, 4.21 ERA; 551 starts/3,550 IP/3,677 H; 1,012 BB/2,125 K
ADAM EATON (RHP)
Opening-day age: 30
Contract: Second season of a three-year, $24.5 million contract with $9 million player option for 2010; $7.625 million in 2008 ($250,000 bonus for 200 and 220 innings; $100,000 for Cy Young or $75,000 for second or $50,000 for third; $100,000 for World Series MVP, $50,000 for LCS MVP, $25,000 for Silver Slugger, $50,000 for All-Star).
2007 stats: 10-10, 6.29 ERA; 30 starts/161.2 IP/192 H; 71 BB/97 K
Career stats: 64-55, 4.70 ERA; 174 starts/1,022.2 IP/1,057 H; 377 BB/763 K
J.D. DURBIN (RHP)
Opening-day age: 26
Contract: Not arbitration-eligible; $380,000 in 2007
2007 stats: 6-5, 6.06 ERA; 10 starts/65.1 IP/78 H; 37 BB/40 K
Career stats: 6-6, 7.00 ERA; 11 starts/73.1 IP/97 H; 44 BB/47 K
In the minors:
Top prospect RHP Carlos Carrasco figures to open at double-A Reading after going 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts for single-A Clearwater and 6-4 with a 4.86 ERA in 13 starts at Reading; other hopefuls include LHP Josh Outman (10-4, 2.45 in 18 starts at Clearwater; 2-3, 4.50 in seven starts at Reading), RHP Drew Carpenter (17-6, 3.20 in 24 starts at Clearwater) and 2007 first-round pick LHP Joe Savery (2-3, 2.73 in seven starts at short-season Williamsport after signing in July). Gillick said none figure into the Phillies' plans until 2009.
Closest-to-the-majors prospect LHP J.A. Happ went 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA at triple-A Ottawa but suffered a late-season elbow injury. RHP Zack Segovia flamed out in 2007, going 1-9 with a 6.05 ERA at Ottawa, 5-3 with a 4.84 ERA at Reading.
Top possible free agents:
Roger Clemens, RH: Prorated $28 million to go 6-6, 4.18 ERA in 17 starts for Yankees
Bartolo Colon, RH: $14 million to go 6-8, 6.34 ERA in 18 starts for Angels
Tom Glavine, LH: $10.5 million to go 13-8, 4.45 ERA in 34 starts for Mets
Livan Hernandez, RH: $8 million to go 11-11, 4.93 ERA in 33 starts for D-Backs
Greg Maddux, RH: $10 million to go 14-11, 4.14 ERA in 34 starts for Padres
Andy Pettitte, LH: $16 million to go 15-9, 4.05 ERA in 34 starts for Yankees
Kenny Rogers, LH: $8 million to go 3-4, 4.43 ERA in 11 starts for Tigers
Curt Schilling, RH: $13 million to go 9-8, 3.87 ERA in 24 starts for Red Sox
Carlos Silva, RH: $4 million to go 13-14, 4.19 ERA in 33 starts for Twins
Randy Wolf, LH: $8 million to go 9-6, 4.73 ERA in 17 starts for Dodgers
OK, Hamels is a good start. He emerged as an ace last season, and the only thing keeping him from Cy Young consideration is his health. If he can stay off the disabled list for an entire year, 20 wins is within his reach. But you can read about all of his talents by clicking here.
Beyond Hamels, though, it gets murky. Of the four pitchers that are under contract (Hamels, Kendrick, Moyer, Eaton), Gillick says the Phils have a No. 1, two No. 4s and a No. 5. We can only assume he regards Durbin as a No. 6 or No. 7. So, clearly, the rotation needs help, especially since the Phillies can hardly bank on a repeat 10-win performance from Kendrick, their biggest surprise of 2007. Lohse, represented by Scott Boras, likely will command Gil Meche money, something in the neighborhood of five-years, $55 million. Having already made a mistake on Eaton last year, the Phils aren't likely to fork over that kind of cash for a sub-.500 pitcher.
And, as you can see, the free-agent pickings are slim. The pool is filled with older pitchers in the twilight of their careers who will command big dollars to pitch anywhere, and even bigger dollars to pitch at The Bank. That's why Gillick said the Phils are more likely to find help via a trade. But, even then, they'd have to move someone off their 25-man roster because their prospect pool is weak. Young pitchers are a prized commodity. For as much money as the Yankees and Red Sox spend, their best moves have been hoarding their young pitchers (Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain in New York, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen, Jonathan Papelbon in Boston), and you've seen what Ubaldo Jimenez (my new favorite pitcher) and Franklin Morales have done for Colorado. So, the Phils would be wise to hold on to Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, Savery, etc.
Of course, the Phils always could move former 14-game winner and 2007 opening-day starter Brett Myers back into the rotation, although Myers, Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee prefer him as a closer. But, given the possible options, I think they they'd be better off returning Myers to the rotation and trying to sign a proven closer, like Francisco Cordero or possibly Mariano Rivera.So, should the Phils take a short-term shot by throwing about $12 million for one year at someone like Schilling, who may be able to give them a productive 2008? Or should they cough up big dollars for Lohse? Or should they move Myers back to the rotation and go hard after a closer? Or should they consider dangling someone like Shane Victorino or Pat Burrell in a deal for Dontrelle Willis or Jon Garland? Keep in mind, the Phils may not even have enough to trade to land one of those pitchers.
OK, discuss ... and have a great weekend!
13 comments:
I would go after Schilling mainly because he probably would sign for one year. I really believe that Carrasco, Carpenter, Happ and Outman will be ready either during 2008 or definitely by 2009 and you don't want to impede their progress because of long term contracts(like Eaton's). So you start the season with a rotation of Schilling, Hamels, Kendrick, Moyer and Eaton with Happ ready and waiting at AAA for injury or poor performance of Eaton. Those other 3 guys will be starting at AA so probably won't be available until after the All-star break.
I agree, Schilling makes for a nice stop-gap until some of the youngsters can fill in. The problem is his health and mouth. Injuries from starting pitchers are sort of par for the course, but, I'm a bit wary of him ruining the chemistry in the clubhouse.
As for Kendrick, Scott, you mentioned that the Phillies can't bank on another 10 wins from him in 2008... Why not? I never got the sense he got by on luck. He'll likely never win a Cy Young, or even come close, but he strikes me as a consistent 12 to 15 win guy (given the Phillies offense).
This is my take on Kendrick (and please god let me be right) Now I know he doesnt have the same stuff as Wang does but remember when he dominated in his first year and EVERYONE was waiting for im too implode? Then during the OFF season ppl like Keith Law were saying surprised everyone but dont expect him to be a top pitcher in the MLB too long cause the pros will figure him out now look hes pretty much the ACE of the yankess. Im not saying KK will do the same but if he can continue to throw strikes and keep the ball down he can be cery successful in the Majors and I beleive we will be able to rely on him for years 2 come!
Here's my reasonable scenario to get two new arms in the rotation:
Sign Schilling to a two year $26 million deal
Trade Pat Burrell plus up to $3 million to SF Giants for P Noah Lowry and then flip Lowry along with Bourn and another B prospect (Joe Bisenius) to Florida for Dontrelle Willis and maybe a bullpen arm.
ed...
why would pat give up his no trade clause for san fran? not likely.
Why not spend serious money like houston did a couple years ago and bring in the rocket, pettite, and shilling all on one year deals to take a shot at the WS now, and then in '09 lean on the youngsters.
I'm still holding out hope that the phillies ownership group saw how excited this town got for playoff baseball and take a chance on a veteran starting pitcher or two, or three :).
I say all of this with the hope that any of those players will actually want to play at CBP.
I'm with hanka here. Schilling could help bridge the gap between the veteran era (Schilling, Eaton, Moyer) and the young homegrown talent era (Hamels, Kendrick, Carrasco, Outman/Savery).
I know Schilling is becoming more prone to injury problems and $12ish million on a veteran chance is pretty risky, but what are the other options? Silva? Lohse and his huge impending contract? I'd rather take a chance on Schilling. But like Tom G said, I would just hope that he wouldn't destroy any of the chemistry that this team has.
This might be somewhat off-topic, but do you know if Adam Eaton is going to be helped extensively in the offseason? Hopefully they would give him his own pitching coach and therapist or something. I'd love to see him come out next year and actually be effective or something close to it.
As always, great comments. Let's keep 'em coming! A few observations:
hanka: You may be thinking along the same lines as Gillick. If Schilling is really willing to take one year, he may still be effective enough to bridge the gap until the kids are ready.
tom g.: Love your blog (ballssticksstuff.com). Your concerns about Schilling are valid. He's a very strong personality, and if chemistry was such a big part of the Phils' success in 2007, you'd have to worry that bringing in a guy like Schilling could upset that. He also had some health problems this year. The Phils don't want a repeat of 2007, with the injuries in their rotation.
Regarding Kendrick: I wasn't suggesting he'll never win 10 games again. I'm simply saying that he came from almost nowhere to do it this year. Until he does it again, you can't bank on it.
anonymous: Kendrick and Wang is a fair comparison, in terms of pitching styles and stuff. Wang has won 19 games in back-to-back seasons. Can Kendrick be a consistent 12-15-win guy? Time will tell.
Ed S.: Burrell probably wouldn't waive his no-trade for San Francisco. But I like that you're thinking creatively. Gillick will have to do the same.
Zach: Eaton is considering seeing a sports psychologist who once helped Jamie Moyer. Eaton and Moyer both live in the Seattle area, so it may be convenient. If it happens, though, I think it'll be entirely Eaton's decision. Doubtful the Phillies will push him to get that sort of treatment.
I figured since Burrell said he would waive his no trade clause for Boston, New York, or possibly the west coast and since he went to High School right next door in San Jose it would be worth a shot. Money needs to be shifted around with the raises due to guys, free agents coming in and the such.
What about Anaheim for Burrell? They need a DH badly and maybe since Stoneman isn't the GM anymore they'll actually make some trades. Do you think Burrell could get Ervin Santana?
Ed S.: Now you're talking. I think there's a chance Burrell would waive his no-trade for the Angels, a West Coast contender. Ervin Santana is interesting. He had a terrible season (7-14, 5.76), during which he was even sent to the minors. But he's 24 and was a 16-game winner in 2006. And with Colon possibly leaving via free agency, they'll be reluctant to trade Santana and hopeful that he'll recover his 2006 form. That said, he may be available, and if he is, he'd be worth looking at in a possible trade.
This is a little off-topic, but Scott, do you know if the Phillies have presented Rowand with a multi-year deal since the season's end or are they planning on letting him hit the free agent market? It's been very quiet on that front lately.
Zach: You won't hear much about Rowand until after the World Series ends. Here's the timeline:
Once the Series is over, players can file for free agency. (Most players file as soon as possible). For 15 days after the World Series, teams have exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents. During that time, the Phils will talk to Rowand's agent, Craig Landis, and maybe discuss the framework for a contract. There's a chance they even make an offer. But, like most players, Rowand won't accept any deal during that 15-day window, opting to see how much money he can make on the open market. Depending on how quickly those talks proceed, Rowand may have a contract by the end of November. Otherwise, it could drag into the winter meetings in early December.
Rowand will be a sought-after free agent. I'd be surprised if he doesn't sign with somebody by mid-December. Then again, he'll be keeping a close eye on Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter to see what kind of contracts they receive. If their negotiations drag on, Rowand's might, too.
Stay tuned.
How about a 6 man rotation again with Hamels, Kendrick, Moyer, Schilling, Eaton, and Mathieson. Obviously, Eaton would work his way out of the rotation due to suckiness and we'd be down to 5 within the first month. We have some prospects that would be ready for some spot starts in case of injury. How about Burrell to Oakland for Blanton? Do they need a DH or is Cust it for next season?
First thing's first:
Re-sign Aaron Rowand.
If you don't manage to re-sign Rowand, push hard to sign Mike Lowell to a two-year contract.
Sign Schilling to a two-year $26.5 million contract (or something in that area).
Move Myers back to the rotation.
Go after Cordero, Rivera, etc. GET A CLOSER.
Gillick needs to wake up the fan base after a quick exit from the playoffs and show the fans that he's ready to win in 2008.
Last year he didn't get Soriano. This year, he needs to persue free-agents aggressively. I just hope that management would be willing to open up the wallet.
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