Just in case you didn't already know, last night's game reinforced that the postseason makes heroes out of relievers. Mariano Rivera is great, but his legacy wouldn't be what it is if not for his 0.77 ERA in 26 playoff series. Francisco Rodriguez became "K-Rod" in the 2002 postseason. Bobby Jenks' entire reputation was built on what he did in the 2005 playoffs for the White Sox.And it's not just closers. There's no way the Red Sox win Game 2 without 2-1/3 brilliant innings from Hideki Okajima before dancing-fool closer Jonathan Papelbon got the final four outs. Okajima and Papelbon were simply dominant.
It made me think, once again, of something Charlie Manuel has said over and over. His philosophy for building a pitching staff begins with the back of the bullpen. Lock down the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, Chuck says, and it takes so much pressure off your starters. That leads us to an examination of the Phillies' bullpen, the fourth installment of our position-by-position series in which we've looked at center field, the starting rotation and third base. We'll start with the incumbent closer, a converted starter and former 14-game winner who Manuel prefers to leave in the bullpen.
BRETT MYERS
Opening-day age: 27
Contract: Second season of three-year, $25.75 million extension; $8.5 million in 2008
2007 stats (as reliever): 5-5, 2.87 ERA, 21 saves in 24 chances; 48 G/53.1 IP/1.18 WHIP; 17 BB/64 K
Career stats (starter/reliever): 59-47, 4.34 ERA, 21 saves; 192 G (143 starts)/923 IP/922 H; 325 BB/773 K
TOM GORDON
Opening-day age: 40
Contract: Final season of three-year, $18 million free-agent contract with full no-trade clause; $5.5 million in 2008 with $4.5 million club option or $1 million buyout for '09 ($50,000 for All-Star, $100,000 for World Series MVP and $50,000 for LCS MVP).
2007 stats: 3-2, 4.73 ERA, 6 saves in 9 chances; 44 G/40 IP/1.325 WHIP; 13 BB/32 K
Career stats: 133-121, 3.93 ERA, 156 saves; 853 G/2,076.2 IP/1,855 H; 957 BB/1,902 K
J.C. ROMERO (lefty)Opening-day age: 31
Contract: Free agent; $1.6 mil in '07
2007 stats (w/Phillies): 1-2, 1.24 ERA; 51 G/36.1 IP/1.10 WHIP; 25 BB/31 K
2007 stats (w/Red Sox): 1-0, 3.15 ERA; 23 G/20 IP/1.95 WHIP; 15 BB/11 K
Career stats: 28-24, 4.30 ERA; 502 G/512.1 IP/491 H; 277 BB/409 K
RYAN MADSON
Opening-day age: 27
Contract: Eligible for salary arbitration; $1.1 million in 2007 ($50,000 bonus for Rolaids Relief Man, $25,000 for All-Star, $50,000 for World Series MVP, $25,000 for LCS MVP).
2007 stats: 2-2, 3.05 ERA; 38 G/56 IP/1.27 WHIP; 23 BB/43 K
Career stats (as a reliever): 20-14, 3.22, 4 saves; 201 G/265.1 IP/246 H; 79 BB/215 K
ANTONIO ALFONSECA
Opening-day age: 35
Contract: Free agent; $700,000 in '07
2007 stats: 5-2, 5.44 ERA, 8 saves in 11 chances; 61 G/49.2 IP/1.85 WHIP; 27 BB/24 K
Career stats: 35-37, 4.11 ERA, 129 saves; 592 G/613 IP/677 H; 250 BB/400 K
GEOFF GEARY
Opening-day age: 31
Contract: Eligible for salary arbitration; made $837,500 in '07
2007 stats: 3-2, 4.41 ERA; 57 G/67.1 IP/1.44 WHIP; 25 BB/38 K
Career stats: 13-4, 3.94 ERA; 216 G/267.1 IP/289 H; 80 BB/173 K
SCOTT MATHIESON
Opening-day age: 23
Contract: Not eligible for salary arbitration; would've made major-league minimum $380,000 in majors in '07
2007 stats: Didn't pitch in majors (injured)
Career stats: 1-4, 7.47 ERA; 9 G/37.1 IP/48 H; 16 BB; 28 K
The rest: CLAY CONDREY, KANE DAVIS (free agent), YOEL HERNANDEZ (free agent), JOSE MESA (free agent not likely to return), FRANCISCO ROSARIO, lefty MATT SMITH (recovering from Tommy John surgery; won't pitch until at least July), lefty MIKE ZAGURSKI (recovering from surgery on right hamstring; expected to be ready by spring training)
In the minors
JOE BISENIUS remains the Phillies' top relief prospect, although his stock dropped slightly in 2007 when he battled a shoulder injury and went 3-4/5.48 ERA/31 walks in 46 innings at triple-A. He figures to open the season at triple-A Lehigh Valley.
FABIO CASTRO still projects as a situational lefty in the majors. He was 6-1/3.02 ERA in 25 minor-league relief appearances and has an outside shot at a job in spring training.
Top potential free agents
MARIANO RIVERA: $10.5 mill to go 3-4/3.15/30 saves in 67 G for Yankees
FRANCISCO CORDERO: $5 mill to go 0-4/2.98/44 saves in 66 G for Brewers
TODD JONES: $5.8 mill to go 1-4/4.26/38 saves in 63 G for Tigers
BOB WICKMAN: $6.5 mill to go 3-4/3.58/20 saves in 57 G for Braves/DBacks
AL REYES: $750,000 to go 2-4/4.90/26 saves in 61 G for Devil Rays
ERIC GAGNE: $6 mill to go 4-2/3.81/16 saves in 54 G for Rangers/Red Sox
SCOTT LINEBRINK: $1.75 mill to go 5-6/3.71 in 71 G for Padres/Brewers
LATROY HAWKINS: $3.5 mill to go 2-5/3.42 in 62 G for Rockies
OCTAVIO DOTEL: $5 mill to go 2-1/4.11/11 saves in 33 G for Royals/Braves
JEREMY AFFELDT (L): $1.25 mill to go 4-3/3.51 in 75 G for Rockies
RAY KING (L): $850,000 to go 1-1/4.76 in 67 G for Nats/Brewers
Myers: It's simple, really. If the Phils can obtain a closer, they'll move Myers back to the rotation. If they can obtain a starter, they'll leave him where he is. Know this: Manuel prefers Myers in the bullpen. Myers does, too.
Gordon: Signed to replace Billy Wagner, he's been relegated to being the primary setup man. That's OK. He excelled in that role with the Yankees.Romero: Played as big a part in helping the Phils to a division title as anybody. The Phils plucked him off waivers in June. In turn, he helped lift the Phils into October. But money supercedes loyalty. Re-signing Romero is a priority for the Phillies, and Romero would like to return. But he likely will be looking for a multi-year deal for about $3-4 million per year. Ultimately, I think he'll re-sign, but it probably won't happen within the Phils' exclusive 15-day window after the World Series. Affledt is the best left-handed free-agent option.
Madson: A strained right shoulder (same injury as Myers had in May) sidelined him for the season in late July. Losing him was a tough blow, but the Phils expect he'll be back as a key bullpen piece in '08.
Geary: Do you offer salary arbitration to a reliever who had to be sent to the minors in midseason? Tough call, especially given his success in '06 (2.96 ERA in 81 games). Maybe he suffered from overuse?
Alfonseca: Another tough call. He'll be seeking a raise through free agency based on his solid first half. In June, with Myers and Gordon sidelined by shoulder injuries, he was the Phils' closer. But he ran out of gas in August and was useless for the season's final two months.
Mathieson: Call him the wild card. The Phils were hoping he'd return from Tommy John surgery and fortify the bullpen in Sept. But the hard-throwing right-hander suffered a setback and never made it back. He's expected to be throwing by January. Does he have the stuff to be a dominant setup man or even a closer candidate?
Free agents: Minnesota exercised its option on Joe Nathan this week, weakening the pool. But there are still a few intriguing possibilities. Despite his threats to the contrary, Rivera likely will re-sign with the Yankees and pitch for a new manager. But Cordero could be out of the Brewers' price range. Otherwise, Reyes may be a candidate as a setup man after having a good year in Tampa Bay.
So, you play GM. How would you structure the Phillies' bullpen in '08? I'll leave this post up throughout the weekend, so y'all will have plenty of time to chime in. Have a great weekend.
6 comments:
I'm not nearly smart enough to answer this question, but then again, neither are most GM's. Generally speaking, it seems a healthy bullpen is an effective bullpen, because injuries from one player lead to overuse of another player.
Age also leads to injury, so that would cause me to let Alfonseca go - though when he's good he's n-a-s-t-y, and would also cause me to wonder if Gordon couldn't be moved, though I'm guessing probably not.
I'd say go young enough to stay healthy enough.
First and foremost, lock down JC Romero, he was excellent in September and although he couldn't get it done in the AL, he proved he could get both right handers and left handers in the NL out consistently.
I would focus on these guys: Linebrink, Cordero and Dotel. I think counting on Gordon for anything more than what he did this season is a serious stretch. If he does well, great, but I hope Gillick has a better 8th inning option coming into '08.
The Myers situation is a tough decision but I think with the lack of free agent depth at starting pitching and the talented pool of free agent relievers combine for an easier decision in my opinion. Sign a reliever or two and bring Myers back to the rotation. He's still only 27 and he can win 17 games with the offense the Phillies showed this season.
I think the two keys to the bullpen are Mathieson and Romero. If Mathieson can be effective that gives you Myers,Gordon,Madson and Mathieson from the right side, which should be pretty good. If you can resign Romero than picking up another lefty(Affeldt or King)and you might have the makings of a decent "pen". That would leave Bisienus, Zagurski, Geary and Castro to battle it out for the seventh(long man) role.
Can Mathieson even pitch in this league? No seriously Hank, do we know? or did I just forget?
Now I'd love Matheison to be successful in the Phils bullpen, but can we count on it? I'm leaning towards no, and hoping Gillick isn't either.
Sign Romero to a 2-year, $3.25 million contract. Sign Affeldt to a similar deal. Sign Cordero or Rivera for a three-year deal worth about $5 or 6 million annually. Move Myers back to the starting Rotation.
I guess Lowell's price just rose a little.
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