In the executive offices at Citizens Bank Park today, the Phillies have begun their annual round of organizational meetings. Pat Gillick is huddling with his inner circle (Ruben Amaro Jr., Mike Arbuckle, Dallas Green, Charley Kerfeld and other people you rarely hear about) to lay the foundation for 2008.First on their agenda is resolving Charlie Manuel's contract situation. Manuel and his agent Pat Rooney (who also represents Jim Thome) are scheduled to meet with Gillick today. It's clear the Phillies want Manuel back next year. They told him as much during the final week of the season. What's not clear is whether they're willing to give him or his coaches a multi-year contract. Gillick plans to retire when his contract expires after 2008, so he may not want to saddle the next GM with a manager he didn't hire.
But I think Manuel will take whatever the Phillies offer, and here's why: Last week, Ed Wade took the interim tag off manager Cecil Cooper, so if managing the Astros was ever a consideration for Manuel, it isn't anymore. I don't think he's going to have many offers, even though he did a wonderful job with the Phillies this season. A few weeks ago in Washington, Manuel, 63, told me he has no interest in retiring. And I think he knows the nucleus is in place for the Phillies to be good for a while. So, as much as he doesn't want to work on another one-year contract, ultimately, I think he will.
On the coaching staff, I think Davey Lopes, Jimy Williams, Milt Thompson, Ramon Henderson and Mick Billmeyer will be back, assuming they want to come back. Not sure about Rich Dubee or Steve Smith.
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Before we totally look ahead, we took one last look back in the 50-center today with The News Journal's annual end-of-season grades. Do you agree with the professor (me)?Also, Kevin Noonan writes that Manuel shouldn't manage the Phillies next year. Looks like Kevin and I will have to agree to disagree.
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In tomorrow's 50-center, we'll take a look at the top five or 10 questions facing the Phillies in the offseason. I was on the radio yesterday with ESPN 920's Dan Schwartzman and today with Harry Mayes and Jamie Yannacone (the 700 Level Fanatics) over at Sports Radio 950, and I talked about how the Phillies won't have as much money to spend as everyone thinks. Yes, Freddy Garcia ($10 million) and Jon Lieber ($7.5 million) are off the books. But Ryan Howard will get a big raise through salary arbitration (probably something along the lines of $6 million or $7 million from his 2007 earnings of $900,000).
We don't want to scoop ourselves, but to whet your appetite before tomorrow's paper hits the shelves, here's a breakdown of the Phillies' budget. Off the top, they have $58.5 million committed to eight players: Pat Burrell ($14 million), Brett Myers ($8.5 million), Adam Eaton ($7.635 million), Chase Utley ($7.5 million), Jimmy Rollins ($7 million), Tom Gordon ($5.5 million), Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million), Wes Helms ($2.15 million). They still owe $5.5 million to Jim Thome, plus they have a $2.5 million option on Abraham Nunez and a $5 million option that they'll almost certainly decline on Rod Barajas. Howard, Geoff Geary, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth and Kane Davis will get raises through salary arbitration, while the non-arbitration eligibles (Cole Hamels, Greg Dobbs, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, Michael Bourn and Chris Coste) will get smaller raises.
When it's all said and done, the Phillies will have about $75 million or so committed to those players. If the payroll remains at $95 million, they'll have $20 million left over to re-sign Aaron Rowand and J.C. Romero, upgrade the pitching staff (Kyle Lohse is a free agent) and fill their other holes, namely third base (Mike Lowell is someone to keep a close eye on). That's not really a lot of money.
How would you spend it?
6 comments:
To me, if you're going to give a guy $10-12 million to close, I think Nathan's the guy. Not only is he dominant, but he's CONSISTENTLY dominant. He's a proven and effective closer and should be paid as such. If Nathan doesn't pan out, look to Cordero, Izzy, or Borowski. If they don't pan out, look to Dotel, Jones, and Reyes (whose high ERA concerns me)
Then, move Myers into the number or two spot as a starter(Myers being the ace would mean fewer innings for Hamels), Kendrick three, Moyer four. I've got no idea what they'd do about the five-spot. Eaton's shown fantastic ability -- the fantastic ability to get rocked like it's his job. He can't be counted on. Maybe sign a guy like Matt Clement, Jason Jennings, or Kenny Rogers.
Then, there's the debacle over what to do about center field. I say re-sign Rowand and hope he takes a home-town discount. Other than that, options inclue Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter (can't see that happening -- too expensive), Andruw Jones (see Hunter, Torii). My brain tells me Michael Bourn, but my heart says bring Rowand back at about $8-10 million a year over four years.
So that brings us to what? $20-25 million if we sign the best possible guy in every category (Nathan, Rogers or Jennings, Rowand). That's without even addressing third base (where I'd REALLY like to see Mike Lowell).
I just don't know how the Phils plan to work this out unless they trade Burrell and his fat contract somewhere else. I don't really see that happening though, especially because he can't run.
Should be interesting.
Is it possible to learn how much extra revenue the Phillies generated from increased attendance and media ratings? They owe it to the fans to spend that extra revenue on players. They must spend money to continue to make money.
I believe Nathan's contract is up next year and I don't see anyway they trade him away even if they trade Johan.
An interesting possibility that arose out of the Yankees ouster was that of the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera, basically saying he is testing the market. Now I would jump on him and give him whatever he wants, put Myers back in the rotation, resign Romero, find a couple middle relievers and I'd be happy with the pitching situation.
Ed S.: The Twins have a $6 million team option on Nathan for 2008, so there's no guarantee he'll be a free agent. But I listed him under the free agents because the Twins haven't committed to picking up that option yet.
The news on Rivera today certainly is interesting. Hard to see him pitching for anyone but the Yankees, though. But if Joe Torre isn't back in the Bronx, it's possible Rivera won't be either. How much money would you pay Rivera? He made $10.5 million this season, and whatever he gets could end up impacting the contract Cordero receives.
How much do you think Nathan would cost? And seeing as the Twins need to shift to another youth movement, do you see them picking up the option just to trade him? If I was the Twins I would definitely pick up the option and then trade him because he would be a valuable commodity with at least 10 teams knocking down the Twins door for him.
Screw Lowell at 3rd.
AROD! AROD! AROD!
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