So, while I watch the Rockies continue their march toward the World Series -- seriously, are they ever going to lose again? -- let's begin our position-by-position look at the Phillies. I'll give y'all time to fire away with comments for a few days before moving on to our next position.Anyway, my Sunday notes in the 50-center examines the diminishing odds that the Rockies will trade Garrett Atkins and the possibility of Curt Schilling returning to the Phils. But, on the Blog, we'll save third base and the starting rotation for another day.
I want to start this position-by-position series in center field, a spot where the popular incumbent for the past two seasons may have taken his final Phillies curtain call.
With that, let's get right to it:
AARON ROWAND
Opening-day age: 30
Contract: Eligible for free agency; $4.35 million in 2007
2007 stats: 161 G/612 AB; .309 average/.374 on-base pct./.515 slugging pct.; career-highs with 45 doubles, 27 homers, 89 RBIs; 47 walks, 119 strikeouts.
Career stats: 849 G/2,664 AB; .286 average/.343 OBP/.462 SLG; 166 doubles, 93 homers, 347 RBIs; 161 walks, 505 strikeouts.
SHANE VICTORINO
Opening-day age: 27
Contract: Not arbitration-eligible until after 2008 season; $410,000 in 2007
2007 stats: 131 G/456 AB; .281 average/.347 OBP/.423 SLG; 23 doubles, 3 triples, 12 homers, 46 RBIs, 37 steals; 37 walks, 62 strikeouts.
Career stats: 341 G/961 AB; .274 average/.336 OBP/.405 SLG; 44 doubles, 11 triples, 20 homers, 104 RBIs, 48 steals; 68 walks, 136 strikeouts.
MICHAEL BOURN
Opening-day age: 25
Contract: Not arbitration-eligible; major-league minimum $380,000 in 2007
2007 stats: 105 G/119 AB; .277 average/.348 OBP/.378 SLG; 29 runs, 3 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 6 RBIs, 18 steals; 13 walks, 21 strikeouts.
Career stats: 122 G/127 AB; .268 average/.340 OBP/.362 SLG; 31 runs, 3 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 6 RBIs, 19 steals; 14 walks, 24 strikeouts.
In the minors:
GREG GOLSON figures to open the season at double-A Reading, where he finished 2007. He batted .285 with 27 doubles, 12 homers, 52 RBIs and 25 steals in 99 games with single-A Clearwater, then batted .242 with 5 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBIs and 5 steals in 37 games at Reading.
Available free agents:
MIKE CAMERON: Made $7 million to go .242 with 21 HR and 78 RBI in 151 G for San Diego
TORII HUNTER: Made $12 million to go .287 with 28 HR and 107 RBI in 160 G for Minnesota
ANDRUW JONES: Made $13.5 million to go .222 with 26 HR and 94 RBI in 154 G for Atlanta
COREY PATTERSON: Made $4.3 million to go .269 with 8 HR and 45 RBI in 132 G for Baltimore
To me, it seems the Phillies have a few options. a) re-sign Rowand, their top right-handed hitter; b) let Rowand walk and go with a combination of Victorino, Bourn and Jayson Werth in center and right, a possibility Pat Gillick said last week "would be a stretch"; c) let Rowand walk, sign another free agent, let Victorino and Werth split time in right and keep Bourn as a reserve outfielder; d) re-sign Rowand, attempt to deal Pat Burrell (he'd have to waive his full no-trade clause) and use Werth in left field and Victorino in right.
Contrary to reports that surfaced last week in other places, Rowand isn't likely to seek a contract in excess of four years and $10-12 million per year. That would be more than Chase Utley will make next season. It also would be a similar deal to the one the Phils gave Jim Thome before the 2003 season. Rowand knows he won't get that much moolah -- from anybody. Statistically, he and Eric Byrnes are nearly the same player. Byrnes got a three-year, $30 million extension from Arizona during the season. If the Phils guarantee Rowand four years, the average annual value may be $10 mill or less. If they guarantee three years, they may have to pay $11-12 million per year.You could argue that Rowand is worth it. Yes, he had a career year in 2007. But he's their most vocal leader, and, at age 30, he may be entering his prime. Also, what are the Phillies' internal options? Victorino was a center fielder in the minors, but Charlie Manuel loves his arm in right. And there are questions about Victorino's durability. He's a smallish guy (5-foot-9, 180 pounds), and he hasn't proven he can hold up through a full season.
Bourn hasn't proven much of anything except that he can steal bases and catch the ball. He was used primarily as a pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. The Phils have no idea if he can hit well enough to play every day, and they won't know until he does it.
So, as Phillies chairman Bill Giles presents the NL championship trophy to the Rockies (could he sound more excited, by the way?), I'll leave it to you. How should the Phils address center field?
6 comments:
If we could manage to sign A Row to around 3 years 25 Mil we should take it (But this wont happen) anything higher expecially in years we should walk. We have 2 OFers who are both going to be better defensivly than Rowand. Also if we get 1 Atkins, Lowell, or Blalock we can let Rowands numbers walk and easily live with Vic in CF and Werth in RF and Bourne getting a ton of playing time.
Scott -
Been away for a few weeks, havent had the opportunity to thank you for the blog and congratulate you on all the positive comments. It really is a nice avenue for following the ballclub, and your posts are always insightful. A good season both on the field and on the blog.
On the East win, my only comment is that it's what can happen when you beat the Mets. Beat the Mets, and its ours again.
That said, we find ourselves in an eeriely similar situation as we did last year this time. Holes on the mound, and a desperate need for a third baseman. Considering Rowand is coming off a monster season, he'll be looking for a nice payout. Im not sure the Phils have better defensive outfielders either on the squad or below in the minors, and that alone might be worth a high paycheck. Defense counts, too.
Sign him.
Paul,
Im sorry to argue with you about this but I just have 2. Rowand is not our best OF and could very well be our 3rd best OFer on the team by the end of 08 and if Berry is soon ready he could end up being our 4th best. His heart and desire to win along with his leadership is what makes Rowand the player he is. His all out plays and all or nothing attidtude is what we will miss, we wont miss his Career highs in K's or his Arm in CF and if we get production out of 3B we wont need Rowand at 10 mil or more a year. He he will sign with us cheap and I mean something around 6-8 mil a year over 3 years WE TAKE it.
If baseball weren't a business and the Phillies would be willing to drive up payroll, I'd say sign him.
Given reality, I think he'll probably have to walk.
Sometimes reality stinks.
If Rowand would take a 3 year deal for 35 million (or less), then he represents pretty good value. Remember, Juan Pierre gor 5 years and 50 million and Gary Matthews, Jr. got 5 years and 55 million just last year and both are not as good as Rowand.
I'd sign him for 3 years, even adding an option, but more than that and you reach his decline years. Here the years will hurt you in the end, not the per year dollars. I'd pay him more per year to reduce the number of years.
I agree - three year deal worth more per year. A fourth year scares me a bit. 3/35 mil or less I think is good for both sides. 4/40 maybe. 4 years and anything above 40 million - no.
If we could also get a Lowell or Atkins (unlikely) at third, I would be willing to experiment with Werth in left. The third baseman would essentially then be making up for Burrell's numbers and anything Werth does would be above and beyond Dobbs/Werth/Nunez - we would actually be ahead offensively. If we sign Rowand this will be the season Burrell gets traded.
In this scenario we still have some $$$ left for pitching.
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