Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Oct. 23 -- POSITION-BY-POSITION: THIRD BASE

So, now we know the Phillies will open and close the 2008 season at home against the Nationals. We know they'll play the Red Sox, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers and Athletics in inter-league play. And we know exactly when they'll have to fend off the Mets.

We just don't know which players they'll have on the field.

That brings us to Part 3 of our continuing position-by-position breakdown. We've looked at center field and the starting rotation (if you haven't commented already, what are you waiting for?). So, let's focus on another area of uncertainty: Third base.

Pat Gillick sounds serious about upgrading here, moreso, I think, than he was last winter when the Phils signed Wes Helms to be their everyday third baseman. It was a mistake. Phillies third basemen combined for the lowest on-base-plus-slugging-percentage in the National League. Slick-fielding but light-hitting Abraham Nunez already has been cut loose, and Gillick has pledged to bring more offense to the position.

But how? Well, that's what we're here to examine.

Oh, before we get started, forget about Tadahito Iguchi playing third. He's never played third before, and he's not going to start now. Iguchi has told the Phillies he'd rather sign as a free agent to be an everyday second baseman elsewhere than try to play third or become a utility player here. OK? Good. Let's move on.

WES HELMS
Opening-day age: 31
Contract: Second season of a two-year, $5.45 million free-agent contract that includes a $3.75 million team option or $750,000 buyout in 2009; $2.15 million in 2008 ($500,000 bonus for All-Star election by fans or $25,000 for selection by players or manager; $50,000 for World Series MVP; $25,000 for NLCS MVP).
2007 stats: 112 G/280 ABs; .246 average/.297 on-base pct./.368 slugging pct.; 19 doubles, 5 homers, 39 RBIs; 19 walks, 62 strikeouts
Career stats: 771 G/1,882 ABs; .265 average/.326 OBP/.435 SLG; 112 doubles, 63 homers, 265 RBIs; 153 walks, 457 strikeouts

GREG DOBBS
Opening-day age: 29
Contract: Not arbitration-eligible until at least after 2008 season; $385,000 in 2007
2007 stats: 142 G/324 ABs; .272 average/.330 OBP/.451 SLG; 20 doubles, 4 triples, 10 homers, 55 RBIs; 29 walks, 67 strikeouts
Career stats: 242 G/546 ABs; .266 average/.314 OBP/.410 SLG; 31 doubles, 6 triples, 12 homers, 87 RBIs; 39 walks, 110 strikeouts

In the minors
MIKE COSTANZO led the double-A Eastern League with a .539 slugging percentage and ranked second with 27 homers for Reading. But he also struck out 157 times in 508 at-bats, and he isn't off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League, whiffing 15 times in his first 36 at-bats. Costanzo is a nice story: second-round pick from Delaware County who showed up to his introductory news conference with a Phillies jacket he had as a kid. But, at 24, he'll have to prove he can make more consistent contact when he opens 2008 at triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Top potential free agents
ALEX RODRIGUEZ: $27 million to go .314 with 54 homers and 156 RBIs in 158 G for Yankees
MIKE LOWELL: $9 million to go .324 with 21 homers and 120 RBIs in 154 G for Red Sox
PEDRO FELIZ: $5.1 million to go .253 with 20 homers and 72 RBIs in 150 G for Giants

Helms: Major disappointment. He didn't homer until his 152nd at-bat, he made 10 errors, and his playing time diminished during the second half. By season's end, he was starting only against left-handed pitching. There's little in his history to indicate it was simply an off year. Helms had a big year in 2003, with 23 homers and 67 RBIs, but he's been little more than a part-time player since.

Dobbs: Major surprise. Exceeded expectations after being claimed off waivers from Seattle in January, but his greatest value comes as a pinch-hitter. Dobbs led the majors with 18 pinch-hit RBIs. He batted .277 (82-for-296) against right-handed pitchers but only .214 (6-for-28) against lefties.

Forget about A-Rod. If he opts out of his Yankees contract, he won't come here. Gillick said the Phillies won't pursue him either. That said, his status could determine how the market for third basemen unfolds. If the Yanks need a third baseman, the price for a lot of players will rise.

Lowell: Has family ties to Philly (his father played baseball at St. Joe's). That said, the Phils will have to outbid the filthy-rich Red Sox, who will make every effort to keep him. He reached a career-high in RBIs and led the Sox in that category, driving in more runs than David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

The Phillies could bring back Nunez at a reduced salary to be a utility player, but he isn't an option to start at third. Gillick said it's "50-50" that the Phillies will upgrade via free agency versus a trade. As usual, a deal may be their best course of action. Colorado could still make Garrett Atkins available with prospect Ian Stewart possibly waiting in the wings, although they'll be asking for a quality pitcher and a top prospect.

Here's a thought: How about Joe Crede, Aaron Rowand's old buddy in Chicago? With prospect Josh Fields set to take over at third base, the White Sox will talk deal. And with Crede (middle, between Rowand and A.J. Pierzynski) coming off back surgery, the price tag may not be too high. Limited to 47 games in 2007, Crede batted just .216 with four homers and 22 RBIs. But he went .283/30/94 in 2006 and may be poised for a rebound.

Here's what Sox GM Kenny Williams told reporters about Fields/Crede on the final day of the season: "Josh is not Joe Crede just yet. But in talking to my staff, they believe he can play some championship third base. So now we look at the offensive side of it and the pluses Josh can bring to it, as well as the clutch hitting of Joe Crede. There are some decisions that we have to come to."

OK, talk amongst yourselves. As always, I'm looking forward to your ideas.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

My first option would be to sign Lowell for 3 years at $27 million.

If that fails Crede is an interesting option. He plays great defense and would be an above average hitter at the Bank, something like 20-25 homers and 100 RBI's would be about right. However, I'm not giving up anything of consequence to get him given his injury history. If they'd do it I would do something like Bisenius for Crede straight up. Wouldn't give up much more than that.

Unknown said...

Ed and I think alike on this one... I've always liked Lowell.

On the other hand, the money's perhaps best spent elsewhere (CF and pitching), so you can try and do the Crede deal, which could help you sign Rowand... and you still have Dobbs if Crede bombs...

There's a lot of upside to that, in my opinion, because I tend to think that Dobbs could hold his own at third. That being the case, not sure I'd want to spend so much over there.

Anonymous said...

First off, I'm dissapointed that for a second straight year, there is no series scheduled for Baltimore! Living down here it was always nice to be able to see my hometeam (usually) beat up on the crummy orioles!

I think Lowell should be a #1 priority but shouldn't be signed for more than 2 years. He had a career year (like Rowand) but by no means is poised to bat a mere .236 again. He'll be a .290-.300 batter in CBP for the next two years. Lets say we offer him 12M/yr for 2 years. Then we offer Schilling 10 M for one year to buffer until our young talent is ready. If Rowand walks, we have that money easily.

However, if we re-sign Rowand, we're probably going to be in a money crunch and won't afford both Lowell and a SP. I've heard rather than Crede, maybe Mike Lamb is an option. He may have inconsistent stats, but he'll probably hit for better average than Crede. What do you think of him?

Finally, what about shipping Burrell to Baltimore for Tejada? Baltimore needs help in most departments including DH and outfield.

hankA said...

Does anybody know about Corey Koskie's injury, he did not play after early July. If the Phillies were to resign Rowand, Koskie might be a cheap option(he only made 6M last year with only 76 games, hit .261 with 12 Homers). At least he's a decent fielder but would probably need a roghthanded backup for those tough Lefties we face. Any opinions on this guy if we can't spend much at 3rd base?

Anonymous said...

Burrell's name keeps getting posted, but haven't we been through this before? He has a no trade clause people, he's not going to the lowly Baltimore Orioles, he likes it way too much here, and I don't blame him. This is a dream park for right handed power hitters.

I hope Burrell will go to the White Sox for Garland, but I doubt he'll go there either. His list of teams is probably Yankees, Red Sox, Angels.

Scott Lauber said...

hanka: Good question about Koskie. Actually, he hasn't played since July 2006 because of post-concussion syndrome. The Brewers just declined his option for 2008, as everyone knew they would, making him a free agent. Last I heard, Koskie thinks he'll be able to play next season. But after being out for a year and a half, how effective will he be? Lots and lots of question marks there.

Anonymous: You're right about Burrell. Chances are, he'd waive his no-trade to play in New York and Boston (none of those teams want him), possibly Arizona (he lives there) and maybe LA. That's it. He's not going to Baltimore. If he would, and the Orioles offered Tejada, the Phillies would make that trade in a heartbeat.

Anonymous said...

Just say NO to LOWELL ...

Phils signed Nunez when he was coming off a career year ... he flopped ...

Phils singed Helms coming of a career year ... he flopped ...

Do not make the SAME mistake AGAIN ... for the love of the BASEBALL GODs ... learn from your mistakes ...

We have enough offense ... we dont need a superstar offensive thirdbaseman ... Dobbs and Helms will do ... maybe call up Constanza and let him platoon ... I don't care ... just don't sign Lowell .. that 27 MILLION needs to be used in the bullpen !!!

I do like trying out someone like Crede, or maybe even someone like Dallas McPherson (from the Angels)

Anonymous said...

I say yes to Lowell. In fact, I say yes to any right handed hitter with some pop.

Man, I wish we were talking about a Cole Hamels start at Fenway instead of that Jeff Francis. It seems so long ago we were in the postseason. The Phillies were in the playoffs, right?