Saturday, June 21, 2008

June 21 -- TRADE WINDS

So, the July 31 trade deadline is still more than a month away, and while the Phillies fully intend to be buyers, it remains unclear that they'll have much to buy.

Before a game last weekend in St. Louis, I sat down with assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who talked about the parity within baseball. Entering today's games, 15 teams have records that are .500 or better. Six more are within five games of the .500 mark. Of course, only eight teams will make the playoffs, but the vast majority still believe they have a chance. And if it stays that way for the next six weeks, the buyers will far outnumber the sellers on July 31.

"It's going to be very tough to acquire players," Amaro told me last weekend. "There's just so much parity. We've talked to several teams already that we'd think are no longer contenders, and they've started the wishy-washy-ness of believing they're still in it."

GM Pat Gillick reiterated that idea before yesterday's game -- "Seattle is one club that is out of it right now," he said. "The other clubs who might have some interesting personnel are still in the race. Some of the sellers don't know they're sellers."

To wit: The Brewers reportedly have told teams that they aren't willing to move Ben Sheets, even though they're 6-1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Of course, one losing streak could force them to change their strategy. Within the past week, Gillick has dispatched scouts to evaluate Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia, Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo and Toronto's A.J. Burnett, a former pupil of pitching coach Rich Dubee in Florida. The Phillies also will certainly take a look at Seattle's Erik Bedard, who likely will be available now that the Mariners have fired both manager John McLaren and GM Bill Bavasi.

Sabathia may be the biggest prize (he also pitched for Charlie Manuel in Cleveland), but it may take more than the Phillies have to give to acquire him. Also, Sabathia will be a free agent after the season, so the Phils must decide if it's worth trading many of their top prospects for a pitcher they may not be able to re-sign.

There's one thing, however, of which Gillick is certain. To obtain pitching help, the Phillies will have to go outside the organization. Gillick said last night that the Phillies don't have any major-league-ready pitchers in the minors, and at this point, still-rehabbing Kris Benson isn't someone the Phillies absolutely can count on.

So, you play GM. Which pitcher do you want to acquire, and how much would you give up?

***
Looks like I spoke (wrote?) too soon about Adam Eaton. But, while Eaton didn't pitch well last night, he got no help from the Phillies' swooning offense either.

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Angels manager Mike Scioscia grew up in the shadow of Veterans Stadium and attended plenty of Phillies games when he was a kid.

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More later from the Bank, where I wouldn't be surprised to see Chase Utley get a day off against Angels lefty Joe Saunders. He had some good swings last night, but his career-worst slump still swelled to 0-for-23.

6 comments:

Keith Law said...

The Brewers reportedly have told teams that they aren't willing to move Ben Sheets, even though they're 6-1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL West.

They're two out of the wild card right now.

Scott Lauber said...

Keith: You're right. That's why I wrote "one losing streak can change that strategy." Of course, as you well know, one winning streak can change everything, too.

My point is, the standings are rather fluid right now. With so many teams above, at, or just below .500, plenty of teams think they have a shot to make the playoffs. And, unless that changes before July 31, the buyers will vastly outnumber the sellers.

Thanks for reading.

Anonymous said...

I think you mean NL Central

Anonymous said...

The Phils should only go after Aaron Cook. He's the prototypical CBP pitcher and he's locked up for the next three years. I don't want anything to do with Bedard right now. Have you seen his home/road splits? He has a 7.40 ERA away from cavernous Safeco Field. I'm not very knowledgeable about prospects, so I don't know what it would take, but I think Cook is the best bet to significantly improve this team.

Anonymous said...

If they're going to try and get C.C, they better hurry. Why would we give up good players to have one player for a few months??!

Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter if they make a trade or not, if they make the playoffs, they'll be ousted in the first-round anyway. This whole team is poorly constructed.