Not to distract from your opinions about the Joe Blanton trade (please, keep 'em coming), but good friend Chad Jennings from the Scranton Times-Tribune passes along these thoughts from J.A. Happ, who tossed seven no-hit innings and struck out 12 in the resumption of a suspended game tonight at triple-A Lehigh Valley. Before the trade, Happ was told that he may start Tuesday night against the Mets at Shea Stadium. Now, that start likely will belong to Blanton."I tried to block it out, obviously, and go out and try to do what I can do," Happ said. "I haven't had a lot of time to think about it, but I guess, obviously, I would like to be in their plans immediately."
Asked if he expected the trade, Happ said, "I knew it was a possibility, let's put it that way."
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Meanwhile, courtesy of loyal reader RutgersESQ, here's a link to Blanton's blog on MLB.com. The most recent entry is fairly appropriate. And here's a breakdown of his career statistics.
Personally, I think this was a gamble worth taking for the Phillies. Adrian Cardenas may turn out to be a .300 hitter in the majors, but it was hard to see that happening with the Phillies. Any time that I asked a team official about Cardenas, I was told that his best position was second base, which Chase Utley has pretty well-occupied. Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle told me Cardenas didn't have the arm to play third, and his offensive numbers, projected to be above-average for a second baseman, would've been ordinary for an outfielder (there also is no telling if he could handle the defense in, say, left field). Josh Outman had struggled as a reliever, and after being shifted to the bullpen by the Phillies, a fresh start with a new organization may be what he needs.
So, what do you think of the deal? Like it? Don't like it?
More from me tomorrow from Florida.
16 comments:
This is an awful deal. Blanton seems to be no better than a 3rd to 5th starter on a good team, albeit a consistent one. Yes, he's relatively young and under team control for 2 more years But to give up two top prospects for a guy who is having a down year, and who has terrible road numbers the last two years seems like overpaying by a lot. I understand that Gillick likes to focus on the makeup of guys, and he has gotten rid of a lot of the paper talents (Bobby Abreu), and replaced them with bulldog type guys, which from all accounts Blanton is. However, I can't believe if we had offered the same package to every team in baseball, we couldn't have gotten a better pitcher, be it a Matt Cain, an Aaron Cook, etc. After tonight, I'm not even sure Blanton is an upgrade over J.A. Happ.
Anon: I'll assure you that the Phillies couldn't have gotten Matt Cain or Aaron Cook without giving up Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and/or Jason Donald. Based on the scuttlebutt I heard in New York during the All-Star break, there's no indication that Cain or Cook will even be available.
I have no idea if Blanton will be successful with the Phillies. Certainly, he'll be moving to a much tougher ballpark (McAfee Coliseum in Oakland is a well-known pitchers' park with miles and miles of foul territory). But the Phillies certainly didn't give up the farm, and for better or worse, they'll control Blanton for two more seasons. It just seems like it was worth the risk.
Terrible deal. I pictured the Phils trading Howard in his prime, shifting Utley to first, and letting Cardenas take over at second. This is awful for a guy with terrible numbers like Blanton, and to top it off, Eaton's still on the roster. I could've seen maybe cutting Eaton and letting Happ prove himself, but really, what's left for Happ to prove at AAA? He struck out twelve guys and he leads the eastern league in strike-outs, so why would they do that unless they have intentions on trading Happ? This move just doesn't make sense, he's one of the worst starters in the bigs numbers-wise and he'll only get worse at CBP. I don't see this being beneficial, and on top of that we traded away a stud lefty (when he's a starter, at least -- I still have NO idea why they moved him to the 'pen), a solid outfielder, and an awesome second-baseman for this junk. I'm glad Gillick's peacing out after this season, I don't know how much more of this ridiculous crap I can take.
scott: you don't work for the phillies, there is no need to put a positive spin on this. because there isn't.
you don't make moves for the sake of making moves. if there was nothing out there, then there was nothing out there. you don't trade away your future because you "had to make a deal."
I'm OK with the trade IF
Having Blanton, who is arbitration eligible for two years, takes away the need to sign a high-priced SP next winter, and the Phils take that money and re-sign Burrell.
Otherwise, Blanton's home/away splits and the number of innings he's logged in the past couple of years scare me. Plus I don't like trading with Billy Beane.
I wonder what this means for Burnett. Maybe they aren't done dealing --I certaintly hope not-- and maybe Blanton is in the mix.
Who knows. Beane knows what he is doing, and to that end I worry that Gillick may not. And knowing how fast the A's bring up youth, it's plausable Cardenas will be the starter before dinner tonight.
Personally, I think it's a great deal and it seems like a lot of people are just complaining for the sake of complaining. I think that after missing out on CC and Harden (even though we didn't have the prospects to make a real run at them), a lot of people were waiting to jump on the organization for any deal they made.
Blanton is a proven pitcher with success in the AL and he's an absolute innings hog. Nothing bad about that. He should be taking some stress off the bullpen which will be huge during the dog days of the second half. He's not a #2, but he's better than Eaton and under club control until 2011.
Cardenas has a lot of potential but he's been in single-A for two seasons now without being promoted. That makes me question his progress and possible ability at the next level. People who say we should trade Howard after this year, move Utley to first and put Cardenas at 2nd are insane. What makes you think Cardenas is ready for a jump from single-A to the majors? With Utley locked up through the mid 2010s, Cardenas deserves a chance with an organization that can use him. He now has that chance.
Outman was converted to a reliever as a means to get on the road to CBP and did decently well, but he's just a decent reliever at AA no matter how you look at it.
The throw-in is, well, a throw-in.
It's a bummer that Happ doesn't seem to have a spot in the rotation anymore because he's been absolutely dominant in AAA this year and he's shown flashes of brilliance in his two starts with the Phillies. It seems like Myers is almost guaranteed a spot in the rotation for the rest of the year so I'm wonder what the course of action will be if he returns ineffective.
Scott, is it a stretch to say that we're looking at a 2009 rotation of Hamels, Kendrick, Happ, Blanton and Myers/Eaton/FA?
If this is seen as getting the top of the rotation starter to make up for Brett Myers, this trade is a failure.
If this is seen as getting a bottom
of the rotation starter who will replace Adam Eaton, this trade could be very successful.
On a positive note, we did not give up any of our prospects that could help in the next 2 years.
The team needed someone to fill the Adam Eaton role at a fair price, they invested 25 million dollars and it did not work out. Kudos to them if they now release
him and go forward.
Myers, or a trade for Bedard, could make this trade for Blanton
a very good thing. It is unlikely that Myers or Bedard will be succeeding for us this year.
We are all disappointed. Cardenas, seemed to be a natural talent. If we get a top starter which will cost at the least Carrasco, or we sign a top of the line Free Agent this winter from an above average crop, the trade for Blanton could be Dick Ruthven esque.
Jamie: No positive spin here. I think my track record in that area is pretty clear. I disagree that this was a move for the sake of making a move. Look, they need a starting pitcher and they got one. At this point, everyone knew the starter would be from the "B-list." Blanton isn't an ace, but he turn into a decent No. 2 or 3. And to get him, the Phils didn't have to give up the players that I think we'd agree are their top prospects (Carrasco, Marson, Golson). I'm not saying this will turn into a good deal. I just think it was worth the risk.
bananafish: I think it's too early to tell what will happen with Burrell, and I'm not sure how much Blanton's situation (he will be eligible for arbitration, and thus, a raise) will have to do with it. Hamels' and Howard's situations will probably have more impact on Burrell.
Paul W.: The Phillies have cooled on Burnett, mostly because of his complex contract situation. You don't want to give away two top prospects for a pitcher who may not stick around after this season. And, at $24 million over the next two years, he'd be expensive if he did stick around.
Zach: Too soon to say what the rotation will look like in '09. Heck, the Phils are still trying to figure out what it will look like next week. It is, however, safe to say that Myers is the big variable here. Will he be a starter next season? Will he be a setup man? Will he be with the Phillies? Will he be somewhere else? Lots of questions to be answered there.
Zach:
You have no idea what you're talking about with Cardenas!
First of all, he isn't really in single-A two years in a row. There are two levels of single-A that young players generally go through-- Low-A and High-A and the competition is way different. Lakewood could not compete in Clearwater's league. It's night and day; it's tye typical jump that most people his age make and most struggle more so.
Also, Cardenas is 20 years old. No one is suggesting he is ready to fill in in the majors next year. He's doing great in high-A ball this year, and would definitely be ready for AA ball next year. After that, he would probably need another year in AA or AAA before being ready for the majors, but that's very tough to know.
The Phillies had 2-3 years to trade Cardenas to any of the other 29 teams who don't have Chase Utley as their second baemen. Trading him now for a guy who projects to have a 4.80 ERA or so playing for the Phillies (my estimate, considering his peripheral statistics and park and league adjustments), and then throwing in a lefty who could have been a #5 starter or a LOOGY...that's ridiculous. Outman for Blanton sounds fair to me.
The Phillies needed to save Cardenas for a larger trade.
Scott:
I disagree that Golson is a top prospect. His K/BB is 79/14 in AA this year, and he's already 22. When was the last time somebody with that type of batting eye turned into anything major? My grandmother could identify a curveball from a fastball quicker than this guy could. This is the guy I want to trade while the getting is good.
However, I thoroughly that Marson and Carrasco are the kind of guys you hold onto unless you can get a top of the rotation starter or a star slugger with a good eye.
MattS,
Good points -- I had foolishly overlooked that he had moved from Lakewood to Clearwater. My bad. But I still like this trade. Yes, Cardenas can continue to appreciate in value but we just helped set up our rotation for the next few years. Hamels is an ace, Blanton is a league-average (or better as his past stats indicate) innings hog who is changing leagues, and Kendrick is a young groundball pitcher. All of these starters are under club control for several more years.
The trade opens up the possibility of kicking Eaton to the curb, slotting Myers in as a #2/#3 or trading him if he gets back to form, and it opens a future spot for Happ and/or Carrasco. Plus there are good raw pitching prospects like Carpenter, Savery and Bastardo in the minors.
I understand your point, but I'll take young rotation depth and bullpen relief now over the opportunity of trading a prospect in two years.
Zach,
I also think you're overestimating Blanton. We already had Hamels and Kendrick in the rotation for the next few years if we wanted, and Myers for the next 1.5 years if he could too. This was just one pitcher, and not an above average one.
His career ERA+ is 100, which is exactly average. However, his trend has been downward: 123, 92, 106, 77-- this year, less than the 78 ERA+ of Eaton.
The reason that his numbers look good to you is that he has been playing in a large Oakland stadium, with lots of foul ground to create foul outs more often, and lots of homeruns are averted.
Also, Oakland has tremendous defense, far better than the Phillies, and that makes his ERA look better-- keep in mind that much of ERA is actually a reflection of defense, especially for a guy with low strikeout totals. Beane loves to trade away guys with ERAs benefited by good defense.
ERA+ adjusts for park difficulty, and I'm pretty sure for league difficulty as well. Furthermore, as a guy who strikes few batters out, he has larger than average park effects on him, making him below average. I would peg him for 4.80 ERA and a tick over 6 IP per start on average.
This is below average pitcher. We have a number of those.
MattS:
You said it perfectly, he's been in decline for a couple of years now and his outstanding defense has kept him from being sent to the minors and kept there.
He's been hit fairly hard, evidenced by his somewhat high ERA. He'll be hit even harder in CBP, especially on hot nights when the ball just carries and carries. Trading a guy who's a far above-average talent (Cardenas) and a guy with a ton of potential (Outman) for a guy with numbers like Blanton just doesn't make sense. If he only pitches 6 innings, he's really not doing the bullpen any good. I hope Charlie will be able to see when he needs to come out of the game before disaster strikes. That'll be a recurring theme every time he starts.
I just don't see how this makes sense. And I wasn't talking about trading Howard after this season, I can just see the Phillies continuing their trend of one-year contracts for him until he becomes too expensive, then trading him to an AL club where he can DH. Utley, who's more than capable as a first-baseman, would shift there and Cardenas could've provided Utley 2.0 (offensively and defensively) at second. Short-sighted move, in my opinion.
What happens if we make it to the World Series? He's gonna get hammered by guys that have faced him when he stunk it up in the AL. This move will NOT help us go any farther in the playoffs than we did last season.
Putting Happ in the rotation for the next 2 years is also "setting up the rotation." putting a fat slob that can't even hack it in a ballpark approximately twice the size of ours is NOT setting up your rotation. its setting yourself up for another "HOW ARE WE GOING TO GET RID OF THIS FAT JERK WITH HIS 6MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT."
you don't give up a 1c prospect for a guy who's career is on the downward spiral. especially when that downward spiral is starting at ERA+ 100(not say 120).
Scott: cardenas is such a much better prospect than golson its outrageous. he's 20 years old(which is YOUNG for A+) and is sporting at ~.380OBP. golson will never ever SNIFF that kind of plate presence.
also, Scott, can you find out who the GM of this team really is? a quote in the paper said that Arbuckle is the assistant GM. is Amaro already the GM of this team? or is the FO just that buddy buddy that everyone has the same opinion?
Not to put a scare into anyone, but the Phillies were faced with a similar situation about 4 years ago. They had a good, young hitter in the minors, who was blocked by a star, like Cardenas was with Utley. They tried to trade that good, young player to get a starting pitcher. But rumor has it that the Pirates wouldn't give up Kris Benson for Ryan Howard, so they were stuck. I'm not saying Cardenas is the next Howard, or even Utley, but let's just say sometimes the best trades are ones that aren't made.
If the goal was to take Eaton out of the rotation, then wouldn't the Phillies be better off with Happ in the rotation as opposed to giving up 3 prospects for Blanton?
If the goal was to get a front-line starter, then the Phillies better hope they're right about Blanton.
LOL @ the moron who wrote this:
"Terrible deal. I pictured the Phils trading Howard in his prime, shifting Utley to first, and letting Cardenas take over at second."
Blanton's blog has more pictures than this one.
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