Monday, August 18, 2008

Aug. 18 -- SPRINT TO THE FINISH

BY SCOTT LAUBER

So, what did you do today?


Ryan Howard spent the day at the Little League World Series in Williamsport, Pa., and hosting a chat on ESPN.com. Closer to home, Chad Durbin chucked the ceremonial first pitch and signed a bunch of autographs at Frawley Stadium before the Blue Rocks game. Oh, and the Dodgers traded for Greg Maddux, just in time for him to face the Phillies this weekend at the Bank.

With the Phillies taking the night off, let's examine the NL East race. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies have a 26.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Mets? 72.5 percent. The Marlins? 4.5 percent. Personally, I think it's going to be much closer than that. Here's a look at the remaining schedules of each team, in order of the standings:

Games remaining: 38
Home: 22
Road: 15
vs. Phillies: 5 (Aug. 26-27 at Phil.; Sept. 5-7 at NY)
vs. Marlins: 6 (Aug. 29-31 at Fla., Sept. 26-28 at NY)
vs. winning teams: 22

Games remaining: 38
Home: 22
Road: 15
vs. Mets: 5 (Aug. 26-27 at Phil.; Sept. 5-7 at NY)
vs. Marlins: 6 (Sept. 8-10 at Phil., Sept. 19-21 at Fla.)
vs. winning teams: 23

Games remaining: 38
Home: 15
Road: 22
vs. Mets: 6 (Aug. 29-31 at Fla., Sept. 26-28 at NY)
vs. Phillies: 6 (Sept. 8-10 at Phil., Sept. 19-21 at Fla.)
vs. winning teams: 21

To me, the schedules are fairly even. With the return of Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, the Marlins probably have the best starting pitching. The Phillies likely have the best bullpen, especially because Billy Wagner's status is uncertain. So, it comes down to offense, and if you check Tuesday's News Journal (and here on The Blog), we'll take a detailed look at why the Phils' offense has struggled so much.

OK, being as objective as you can be, who do y'all think will win the division? Why?

***
The esteemable Ken Rosenthal is reporting tonight on FoxSports.com that the Phillies and Red Sox are interested in signing catcher David Ross, who was released today by the Reds. Ross most likely would be a September call-up for the Phillies. It's hard to imagine they would send Carlos Ruiz to triple-A Lehigh Valley, especially since they've been happy with Ruiz's defense and game-calling. But Ross would give the Phillies a third catcher after Sept. 1, which would allow Charlie Manuel to utilize Chris Coste primarily as an extra bat off the bench.

Anyway, here's a look at Ross' career stats.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good stuff today in the NJ regarding Phillies slump. About time someone recognized that Howard is VERY one dimensional. I'm hoping for the Marlins, but I'll settle for the Mets.