Aug. 19 -- ON THE OFFENSIVE

BY SCOTT LAUBER

So, for nine weeks, the Phillies' supposedly vaunted offense has been a colossal disappointment, outperforming only the Reds, Padres, Nationals and Giants. That's nothing to brag about. Those offenses are putrid. And, for nine weeks, the most common response from Pat Gillick, Charlie Manuel, Milt Thompson and the Phillies' hitters has gone something like this: "We'll come around. This offense is too good not to start hitting."

Guess what? It hasn't.

By now, Manuel is losing hair. Thompson is losing sleep. But, while the Phillies keeping losing games, no one has any more answers than they did before. So, we decided yesterday to solicit an outside opinion. I had a conversation with Nate Silver, a writer and statistical analyst for Baseball Prospectus. Some background on Silver: He lives in Chicago, has an economics degree from the University of Chicago, and he makes his living by dissecting statistics to determine the outcome of things as trivial as baseball games and as meaningful as the presidential election (at the moment, he likes Barack Obama by a 285-253 electoral margin).

Anyway, back to the Phillies. When it comes to baseball, I'm not a real big numbers guy. I think there's a human element to the game that can't be quantified. That said, there's certainly a place for statistical analysis, and when he looks at the numbers, Silver isn't particularly surprised that the Phillies' offense is struggling. Despite the additions of Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz, he doesn't believe the Phillies made any real improvements to their offense this season. And if they were counting on Jimmy Rollins to have a repeat of his MVP-winning 2007, well, that just wasn't going to happen. Silver also is down on Ryan Howard, believing the Big Man has gone from an MVP in 2006 to an average first baseman. It's hard to call 33 home runs and 104 RBIs in mid-August "average," but I get his point. Howard's on-base and even slugging percentages are lower than ever, and he's poised to break his own all-time single-season strikeout record.

Silver said there's no "magic bullet" to explain the Phils' offensive doldrums, but he presented a number of theories. The most sensical, at least to me, is that none of the Phillies are having career years. Both Rollins and Aaron Rowand had career years last year. You can check out Silver's thoughts by clicking here and reading the story that also appears in today's News Journal.

Meanwhile, here are a few more numbers to digest:

Overall ranks
Runs: 595 (4th)
Average: .252 (12th)
Homers: 166 (1st)
RISP: .258 (8th)

Through June 13: .265, 373 runs (5.41 runs per game), 99 HR, 357 RBI, .343 OBP
Since June 13: .235, 222 runs (4.04), 67 HR, 214 RBI, .313 OBP
In August (16 games): .202, 49 runs (3.06), 14 HR, 47 RBI, .303 OBP
Last 6 games: .175, 16 runs (2.67), 6 HR, 16 RBI, .257 OBP

Runs/game since June 13: 4.04 (better only than San Francisco's 3.49, Washington's 3.70, San Diego's 3.93, Cincinnati's 3.98)

Ryan Howard
Through June 13: .212, 17 HR, 54 RBI, .313 OBP, .463 SLG, 93 K
Since June 13: .256, 16 HR, 50 RBI, .329 OBP, .507 SLG, 69 K
In August: .179, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .299 OBP, .375 SLG, 20 K
Last 7 games: .083, 1 HR, 6 RBI, .207 OBP, .250 SLG, 13 K

Chase Utley
Through June 13: .317, 22 HR, 61 RBI, .404 OBP, .653 SLG, 40 K
Since June 13: .242, 8 HR, 22 RBI, .321 OBP, .440 SLG, 39 K
In August: .220, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .333 OBP, .475 SLG, 11 K
Last 7 games: .231, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .333 OBP, .462 SLG, 6 K

Jimmy Rollins
Through June 13: .278, 28 R, 5 HR, 22 RBI, .340 OBP, .444 SLG, 15 K
Since June 13: .257, 28 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, .327 OBP, .420 SLG, 26 K
In August: .234, 6 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .324 OBP, .359 SLG, 6 K
Last 7 games: .167, 3 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .194 OBP, .267 SLG, 5 K

Pat Burrell
Through June 13: .284, 39 R, 17 HR, 43 RBI, .428 OBP, .601 SLG, 51 K
Since June 13: .245, 22 R, 12 HR, 27 RBI, .350 OBP, .511 SLG, 50 K
In August: .167, 5 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .328 OBP, .417 SLG, 13 K
Last 7 games: .238, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .370 OBP, .619 SLG, 6 K

Shane Victorino
Through June 13: .281, 45 R, 2 HR, 18 RBI, .350 OBP, .396 SLG, 23 K
Since June 13: .284, 32 R, 9 HR, 28 RBI, .349 OBP, .481 SLG, 27 K
In August: .236, 7 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .311 OBP, .418 SLG, 11 K
Last 7 games: .190, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .227 OBP, .190 SLG, 7 K

Jayson Werth
Through June 13: .262, 22 R, 9 HR, 27 RBI, .337 OBP, .497 SLG, 38 K
Since June 13: .267, 22 R, 7 HR, 17 RBI, .375 OBP, .459 SLG, 36 K
In August: .225, 6 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .347 OBP, .400 SLG, 13 K
Last 7 games: .238, 4 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .346 OBP, .476 SLG, 7 K

Geoff Jenkins
Through June 13: .275, 22 R, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .323 OBP, .438 SLG, 37 K
Since June 13: .183, 5 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, .261 OBP, .298 SLG, 28 K
In August: .233, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .324 OBP, .300 SLG, 6 K
Last 7 games: .250, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .308 OBP, .250 SLG, 4 K