April 30 -- WHAT WERE THE ODDS?

ATLANTA -- History was with Antonio Alfonseca.

The odds were not.

Before the ninth inning tonight, Alfonseca had faced Andruw Jones 13 times. Eleven times he'd gotten the Braves slugger out. The other two times, Jones walked and laced a two-run single. But Jones is too good a hitter -- and had faced Alfonseca too often -- to not get a big hit against him. And his walk-off homer tonight was certainly a big hit.

But there were plenty of other reasons for this loss, the Phillies' fourth in as many games against the Braves this season. They didn't get a hit after Ryan Howard's go-ahead RBI single in the sixth. Pat Burrell's costly fifth-inning error led to the Braves' first run (ironically, Charlie Manuel was talking before the game about how much better Burrell's defense has gotten). And, after the Phillies grabbed a 2-1 lead, Jon Lieber gave up the game-tying solo homer by Chipper Jones.

Want to assess blame? There are plenty of culprits.

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Howard went the other way with his RBI single, looking more like his MVP form from last season. A good sign or an aberration? We'll see. Also, I can't tell you how many e-mails I've gotten from folks who think Howard had a bad April because he was upset the Phillies didn't give him a long-term contract. Nothing can be further from the truth. Howard was disappointed, to be sure. But, trust me, sulking about it isn't his style. Besides, another big season will earn him even more money down the road.

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Aaron Rowand left tonight's game before the seventh inning with a stiff lower back. He said his back "locked up" after making a diving catch against Kelly Johnson in the third.