BY SCOTT LAUBERCLEARWATER, Fla. -- So, in the nearly two weeks I spent back home, whenever I talked to anyone about the Phillies, the same question invariably arose.
Are they really going to bat Utley, Howard and Ibanez back-to-back-to-back?
In the abstract, it makes perfect sense. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are the Phillies' top three run-producers, so it seems logical that Charlie Manuel would configure a lineup that features them in the 3-4-5 spots. But Utley, Howard and Ibanez also are all left-handed, and that's where the problems arise.
The other day, I spoke with Joe Sheehan, a statistical analyst at Baseball Prospectus who is emphatic about the Phillies' need to split the lefties. Sheehan believes an all-left-handed middle of the order would leave the Phils vulnerable to being silenced by tough lefty relievers (think Pedro Feliciano) in the late innings of close games.
"If they stack the lineup [with lefties], they give up the advantage in those high-leverage situations against pitchers designed to beat you," Sheehan said. "In the eighth inning of a tie game, you'll face every come-from-side lefty whose job is to give up a .400 OPS to left-handed hitters."
Sheehan's suggestion: Righty-swinging Jayson Werth bats fifth, while Ibanez bats sixth. He also thinks Manuel could further separate the lefties by batting Utley second, Werth third, Howard fourth, Shane Victorino fifth and Ibanez sixth.
And while those configurations are certainly possible (Manuel hasn't decided how the lineup will look), I'm not sure they're necessary. Ibanez replaces righty-swinging Pat Burrell, but as you can see, Burrell's career numbers against left-handed pitchers are only modestly better than Ibanez's.
BURRELL: .276 average, .950 OPS vs. LHP
IBANEZ: .268 average, .733 OPS vs. LHP
Here's how the other Phillies fare against lefties compared to righties (batting average/on-base percentage).
Jimmy Rollins (switch): .274/.767 vs. RHP; .287/.794 vs. LHP
Shane Victorino (switch): .289/.751 vs. RHP; .279/.832 vs. LHP
Chase Utley (lefty): .306/.918 vs. RHP; .280/.861 vs. LHP
Ryan Howard (lefty): .304/1.065 vs RHP; .231/.786 vs. LHP
Raul Ibanez (lefty): .293/.849 vs. RHP; .268/.733 vs. LHP
Jayson Werth (righty): .251/.755 vs. RHP; .291/.920 vs. LHP
Pedro Feliz (righty): .246/.704 vs. RHP; .267/.758 vs. LHP
Carlos Ruiz (righty): .253/.700 vs. RHP; .206/.650 vs. LHP
So, what do you think? Does the Phillies' offense tilt too far to the left?
***
On tap today: Chan Ho Park makes his latest pitch for the fifth-starter spot by facing the Cardinals at Bright House Field. Kyle Lohse will start for St. Louis.
Enjoy your Sunday.
3 comments:
Scott, you can't be saying that a difference of over 200 OPS points between Burrell and Ibanez liftime vs. LHP is meaningless, right?
Yes Scott. Please defend yourself on that comment. If you are someone that still believes that batting average it the best measure of offensive worth, then this will be my last day of reading Philled In. Which would be a shame since I have been checking it on a daily basis for over a year now. I would like you to look up some players with a career OPS' of .950 and some players with a career OPS' of .733 and explain how the two lists are even remotely comparable.
Anonymous 11:12 and 6:27: You both make good points. Certainly, the OPS difference is significant. The batting average, however, is not. And while I absolutely agree that OPS is a more accurate measure of offensive worth, I don't believe batting average can be disregarded completely. So, while the drop-off from Burrell's career stats vs. LHP to Ibanez's is more than modest (bad word choice on my part), I guess I'm trying to say it's not as dramatic as I had initially thought before looking up the numbers.
Post a Comment