BY SCOTT LAUBERCLEARWATER, Fla. -- So, the Phillies play a rare spring-training night game here this evening, which means we probably will spend another afternoon trying to get straight answers about the starting rotation from Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee. (My head is still spinning from yesterday's Q&A session.) But before I head over to Bright House, I wanted to discuss the two most recent installments in The News Journal's Countdown to Opening Night.
As y'all know, we are taking a week-long look at some of the "difference-makers" whose performances, positive or negative, figure to greatly affect the Phillies' chances of repeating as World Series champs. Our series began Sunday with a profile of Jayson Werth, the top right-handed power threat in the lefty-leaning lineup and, for that reason, perhaps the Phillies' most important offensive player. It continued Monday with a look at "The Pen Men," the relievers who made up the NL's best bullpen last season but will be hard-pressed to duplicate their success in 2009. And, in today's paper, we featured Cole Hamels, who may be the most indispensable Phillie of them all.
A few more words about the bullpen: It was fairly obvious, especially in September, that the biggest difference between the division-champion Phillies and the playoff-outsider Mets was the bullpen. The Phillies' relievers combined for a league-leading 3.22 ERA compared to the Mets' 4.27. The Phils blew 15 saves, none by Brad Lidge, and were 79-0 when leading after eight innings. The Mets blew 29 saves, seven by Billy Wagner. The Phillies' bullpen was so successful it was chosen to participate in a television show, "The Pen," scheduled for six weekly episodes starting June 1 on MLB Network. The Mets' bullpen was dismantled.
But, as a new season dawns, the Phillies have plenty of late-inning questions. Can Ryan Madson sustain long-term success as a shut-down setup man? Can Chad Durbin, never a full-time reliever until last year, repeat his 2.87 ERA? Can lefty Scott Eyre pitch as well as he did after being acquired in August? How much will lefty J.C. Romero, suspended 50 games after testing positive for a banned substance, be missed? The Mets, meanwhile, signed closer Francisco Rodriguez and traded for setup man J.J. Putz, seemingly narrowing (or completely erasing) their most significant gap with the Phillies.
A few days ago, I asked Dubee if the Phillies' relievers can duplicate 2008.
"Boy, I don't know," he said candidly. "You'd like to think so. I didn't know they could do what they did last year. But if we get them off on the right start and the confidence continues to grow, who knows what they can do?"
The answer may go a long way toward determining the NL East champion.
Finally, a few additional words on Hamels. As we told you yesterday, he officially was ruled out of making the Opening Night start after throwing 65 pitches in a triple-A game yesterday. But that has been obvious for about two weeks, since he returned from Philly on March 18 after getting an anti-inflammatory injection to relieve the tightness he'd been feeling between innings in his cranky left elbow. Hamels isn't expected to miss a start, though. He'll throw about 80 pitches in Saturday's exhibition at the Bank, and assuming that goes well, he'll make his season debut April 10 at Coors Field in Denver.
That said, in the Phillies' universe, Hamels' health is always monitored like matters of national security -- with extreme care. And after Hamels pitched yesterday, I contacted Will Carroll, who tracks and studies injuries for Baseball Prospectus. Carroll's research has revealed that pitchers who have a sharp increase in innings from one season to the next generally are at greater risk of arm injuries. Including the playoffs, Hamels led the majors with 262-1/3 innings last season, far surpassing his previous career-high of 183-1/3 in 2007.
"Over and over, our research has shown that a 30-inning bump is not to be trifled with," Carroll said. "Is anybody immune to it? Some pitchers have avoided it. Is [Hamels] the kind of guy that can handle it? Maybe, but you really don't know until you see how he reacts."
One thing is for sure: Losing their ace would kill the Phillies.
"If Jimmy Rollins hurts himself, Eric Bruntlett could always come in and have a good three weeks," Carroll said. "But if they lose Cole Hamels, it would be virtually impossible to replace him."
So, two questions for everyone out there in Blog Land:
a) Can the Phillies' bullpen be as good as it was last year?
b) Will Hamels stay healthy for an entire season again?
Discuss.
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